Burnley welcome Everton to Turf Moor this weekend in a clash that could have major implications at both ends of the Premier League table.
The 3:00 PM kick-off sees a struggling Burnley side desperate to address defensive frailties against an Everton team that have dominated the recent head-to-heads and boast one of the league’s best pressing units. As the Clarets look to climb away from the relegation zone, Everton aim to keep their upward momentum going and extend their impressive record in this fixture.
Best Bets & Predictions
Based on Everton’s pressing strength, Burnley’s defensive record, and the historical dominance of the Toffees in this matchup, here are our top betting recommendations for this encounter. We’re particularly confident in Everton to Win due to their recent head-to-head superiority and Burnley’s ongoing struggles at the back.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Everton to Win | 20/21 @ Bet365 (51.2%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Everton are strong favourites due to Burnley’s dire away form. Burnley sit second bottom in the league with a very poor overall form, having lost 12 of 17 matches. Crucially, their away record is W1 D1 L7, conceding heavily on the road. In contrast, Everton’s home form is solid at W4 D2 L3. Given Burnley’s struggles and Everton’s superior home record, the Toffees are statistically positioned to secure a comfortable victory at Goodison Park. |
| Everton Win 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 | 2/1 @ BOYLE Sports (33.3%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Everton’s home matches are typically low-scoring affairs, with the Toffees averaging only 1.38 goals scored and 1.12 goals conceded at Goodison Park. Burnley’s away form is abysmal, but their attack is anaemic, averaging just 0.89 goals scored on the road. Given Everton’s modest home attack and Burnley’s league-worst defence, a narrow victory is the most probable outcome. The data points to Everton capitalising on Burnley’s 24 away goals conceded without a goal-fest. |
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Burnley vs Everton match odds
How both teams head into Burnley vs Everton
Burnley’s 2025/26 Premier League season has been a desperate struggle, leaving them firmly entrenched in the relegation zone and facing a serious battle for survival. As of 22 December, the Clarets sit in 19th place with a meagre 11 points from 17 matches (W3 D2 L12). Their primary issue is a porous defence, having conceded a league-high 34 goals (2.0 per game), resulting in a damaging -15 goal difference. Their attack has managed only 19 goals (1.12 per game), failing to compensate for the defensive frailties.
The team’s form has been dire, highlighted by a seven-match losing run that was only recently halted. Their last match, a 1-1 draw away at Bournemouth on 20 December, provided a small reprieve, with a late equaliser salvaging a point. Crucially, their away record is particularly poor, contributing significantly to their 12 defeats.
Everton’s 2025/26 Premier League season has been a campaign of steady, if unspectacular, progress, keeping them firmly in the mid-table. As of 22 December, the Toffees have accumulated 24 points from 17 matches, placing them around 10th position. Their defensive stability has been key, conceding 19 goals while scoring 18, resulting in a near-even goal difference. This low-scoring trend is reflected in their home form of W4 D2 L3.
The season has been defined by tight results, with a recent run of four wins in five games propelling them up the table. However, their latest result was a narrow 0-1 loss at home to Arsenal on 20 December, highlighting their struggle to break down top-six opposition. Despite this setback, the club remains comfortably clear of the relegation battle, a significant improvement over recent seasons, largely built on solid defensive displays at Goodison Park.
Burnley team news
Zeki Amdouni is a long term absentee and isn’t expected back in contention until April, while Connor Roberts should make his return near the end of January. Lyle Foster and Hannibal Mejbri are playing in AFCON and won’t feature but Maxime Esteve should be fit enough to reclaim his place in the starting eleven.
Everton team news
Seamus Coleman and Jarrad Branthwaite aren’t expected back in the Toffee’s squad until January, while Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall is out until nearer the end of December. Idrissa Gueye and Iliman Ndiaye have joined up with their national teams for AFCON and won’t be available.
Season Form & Standings
Everton sit comfortably mid-table, while Burnley are mired in a relegation battle. The Toffees have more than doubled Burnley’s points total and have been far more secure defensively.
| Team | Pos | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley | 19 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 19 | 34 | -15 | 11 |
| Everton | 10 | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 24 |
Head-to-Head: Last 5 Meetings
Everton have enjoyed the upper hand in recent meetings, winning 8 of the last 14 encounters with Burnley, including all three meetings in 2023/24. The Toffees have also kept Burnley off the scoresheet in their last two head-to-heads.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 06/04/24 | Everton 1-0 Burnley | Premier League |
| 16/12/23 | Burnley 0-2 Everton | Premier League |
| 01/11/23 | Everton 3-0 Burnley | League Cup |
| 06/04/22 | Burnley 3-2 Everton | Premier League |
| 13/09/21 | Everton 3-1 Burnley | Premier League |
Conclusion
Will Everton’s high pressing and defensive organisation deliver another win at Turf Moor, or can Burnley find a way to break their grip on this fixture? The stats point strongly towards the visitors: Everton have won 8 of the last 14 against Burnley, and their defence looks capable of shutting down a struggling Clarets attack. For punters, Everton to Win at 20/21 with Bet365 (51.2% implied) stands out as the value play.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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