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Squawka / Features / Man City vs Leeds stats and analysis: Phil Foden shines in Pep Guardiola and Daniel Farke’s tactical battle

Man City vs Leeds stats and analysis: Phil Foden shines in Pep Guardiola and Daniel Farke’s tactical battle

Manchester City defeated Leeds United 3-2 at Etihad Stadium in what was very much a tale of two halves.

It looked like it was going to be an easy one for the Citizens. Phil Foden opened the scoring 59 seconds into the match and Josko Gvardiol made it 2-0 in the 25th minute.

City dominated the whole first half – and even set a 2025-26 Premier League season-high for expected goals before the break.

Let’s start with their relentless start that led to them build the two-goal cushion in the first place.

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Manchester City’s dominant first half

Pep Guardiola maintained his recent tendencies of crowding the central corridor. This time, though, Bernardo Silva wasn’t aligned with Nico Gonzalez in the build-up and instead acted as the right-attacking-midfielder. Tijjani Reijnders and Jeremy Doku did the same on the left, while Phil Foden played more as a number 10.

The Spaniard tactician’s idea with this actually beared fruit in basically the first play of the game. He wanted to attract enough attention to the middle, drawing Leeds defenders inside to open up space out wide. Both Matheus Nunes and Nico O’Reilly hugged the touchline initially.

Manchester City’s average position map in the first half

Gvardiol then found a long diagonal pass to Nunes, who played a one-two with Bernardo, placed a cross and suddenly City were up 1-0 thanks to Foden.

There were a few rotations within this system as well, proving Guardiola’s flexibility is not without a few of his preferred positional traits. The structure was clear, but players switched roles quite often. From time to time, they would revert back to a more rigid and spread out 3-1-5-1.

Leeds had a good five-minute stretch in which they occupied the attacking half and managed to recover possession quite quickly. But Guardiola adjusted by dropping Bernardo deeper to help in the build-up. Ao Tanaka and Ilia Gruev stayed glued to him and Gonzalez, but there was enough space between the lines and out wide for their fullbacks to explore.

The visitors were then left resisting for the rest of the first half. They threw bodies to block shots and managed to avoid a larger deficit. It felt like it would be useless as City could have scored more, but that effort proved absolutely necessary for what came next.

Daniel Farke’s adjustment that gave Leeds life

At half-time, Daniel Farke replaced wingers Daniel James and Willy Gnonto with striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin and centre-back Jaka Bijol. This seemingly defensive substitution is what actually brought Leeds back from the dead in the second half.

The three-at-the-back system allowed their full-backs – who turned into wing-backs – to take a few steps forward. The Whites managed to occupy the attacking half again and go back to what made them relatively dangerous for that five-minute stretch around the 5th-10th minute mark.

Manchester City 3-2 Leeds United momentum chart based on expected threat differential

Granted, the first goal came from a series of unforced errors by Matheus Nunes. First he gave the ball away in his own defensive third, then left Calvert-Lewin onside to receive the pass. And when he won back position, his touch gave the Leeds striker the opportunity to basically tap the ball into an open net.

But Leeds were well positioned to play off of eventual mistakes. They came and the guests capitalised. That gave them confidence and they owned almost the entire second half – having had 60% of the ball from the 45th to the 60th minute.

As they’ve done more often this season, Man City accepted the opponent’s dominance. But that may have been a mistake: Farke took his speedy wingers out of the game, meaning that Leeds had little to threaten with runs in behind like they tried in the first half.

Manchester City’s defensive line action areas in the first half

Guardiola could have sent his team back to pressing and setting a high defensive line. Leaving Doku and Nunes or Foden out wide would pin the opposing wing-backs in their own half. That would also have pushed Calvert-Lewin and Lukas Nmecha back and perhaps prevented the danger they created with flick-ons and aerial duels.

One of those actually led to the penalty. It wasn’t without a defensive collapse by the Citizens, though, since O’Reilly was matched with Calvert-Lewin but Jayden Bogle came out of nowhere to win the ball. Gianluigi Donnarumma saved Nmecha’s effort, but the German scored on the rebound.

Manchester City’s defensive line action areas in the second half

Set piece fest and open play ressurgence

It’s hard to leave out this specific part of the game. Man City produced 2.7 expected goals, with 1.5 of them coming from set pieces. They were also responsible for 0.6 of Leeds’ 1.5 xG – excluding the penalty kick.

The Whites looked dangerous from dead balls at the start of the game, and then the Citizens took over in that department. Many of their attempts just before the break came in large numbers off of corners or free-kicks.

City managed to regain control of the game in open play, though, and push Leeds back near their own goal. By that time, Guardiola had already reverted back to wingers out wide and full-backs tucked inside and a spread-out line of five (sometimes six) men forward. Can’t judge him for going with what he feels more comfortable.

They created two free headers down the stretch, both from Doku crosses. One with Erling Haaland – his first and only attempt, in the 88th minute – and another with Omar Marmoush.

Phil Foden ultimately scored the winner in the beginning of stoppage time, after City were passing from left to right and back again many times. In the end, ‘old-school Guardiolism’ won them all three points.

But it definitely shouldn’t have been that difficult, especially considering how much Leeds have been struggling. While the Citizens did end a two-game losing streak, there was a lot to be alarmed about in today’s win.

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