Paraguay caused a big upset at the 2026 World Cup as they beat Germany on penalties to progress to the last-16.
Gustavo Alfaro’s side took the lead just before half-time, despite the sustained pressured applied by Germany. Julio Enciso headed it home after a nice move down the right, arriving as the free man in the box. Kai Havertz levelled things up early in the second half, with a headed effort unto the far corner.
Germany continued to ask questions of the Paraguayan defence, but the South Americans stayed strong, taking the game to extra time. There was plenty of controversy there, with Jonathan Tah a seeing a goal disallowed after VAR review.
Paraguay managed to take the game to penalties and secured their spot in the next round, after misses from Havertz, Nick Woltemade and Tah.
Germany vs Paraguay analysis
Paraguay’s asymmetric 4-4-2
Paraguay set up in a solid 4-4-2 shape, but there were a few interesting details. Enciso was heavily oriented towards the right in the front two, looking to apply pressure to Joshua Kimmich whenever he got the ball.
The returning Miguel Almiron and Matias Galarza then took up very narrow positions in the midfield four, blocking any central progression.
This worked extremely well against Germany, whose primary attacking organisation is built around central combinations.
Paraguay’s 4-4-2 left space on the outside of their block, forcing Germany to use their width. And Die Mannschaft lack in quality on the flanks.
With little to no interest of hitting Germany on th ebreak, Paraguay expend their energy plugging defensive gaps and limiting the threat against them.
Paraguay limited Germany to just five shots in the first half, with 0.14 Expected Goals. That’s despite the Germans having 75% possession.
There were some improvements in the second half, but Germany still only managed nine shots and one big chance, with 0.58 xG.
Paraguay were looking a little leggy heading into extra time. But they still managed to keep Germany out, with seven shots generating 0.77 xG against them.
Germany routes to chances
Julian Nagelsmann set his side out to attack through their usual central combinations in the first half. But he made a few tweaks after the break to generate more threat. There was more emphasis on looking to carve out space in the wide channels.
In the first half, Germany always had the option to go wide and find the 1v1s against the Paraguay’s full-backs due to the positioning of Felix Nmecha and Nathaniel Brown. However, Leroy Sane struggled to take advantage of this. He attempted seven dribbles in his 88 minutes on the pitch, but failed to complete a single one.
At the same time, Florian Wirtz is much more effective operating inside. So he didn’t really give the wide one-on-one threat Germany needed.
So, Die Mannschaft looked to create advantages by having their wide men drop deeper to hold width. It forced a Paraguay full-back to follow them out, creating space for an underlapping run.
Germany’s increased emphasis on wide attacks allowed them to get more crosses into the box, looking to overload Paraguay’s defensive line. Their equaliser came from this. Wirtz received the ball in a wide area, with Brown’s run taking the full-back away with him.
This created the space for Wirtz to cut inside, creating separation to deliver a ball into the box where Germany had the overload. Havertz applied the finishing touch with a deft header into the far post.
Frantic finish as Paraguay cause upset
Extra time was a frantic affair between both sides. Germany continued to control proceedings, with 90% possession in the first half. They put 11 crosses into the box and continuously looked to put pressure on Paraguay’s goal.
That pressure led to Tah finding the back of the net from a corner. But the goal was disallowed for a soft blocking action on the goalkeeper from Waldemar Anton.
Temperatures were boiling from here on. Jamal Musiala was continuously fouled, which led to him losing his temper and putting in a forceful challenge late on. Luckily the connection wasn’t full-on, so Musiala only received a yellow card.
The game went all the way to penalties, with Havertz, Woltemade and Tah all missing from the spot. Paraguay had two bites of the cherry to secure qualification to the next round.
Fabian Balbuena missed the initial opportunity, but Jose Canale made no mistake from the spot to sent Paraguay to the last-16. They’ll face the winner of France’s clash with Sweden, looking to keep their run going.
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