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Squawka / Features / Croatia vs Ghana stats and analysis: Blazers prevail in game of two halves

Croatia vs Ghana stats and analysis: Blazers prevail in game of two halves

Croatia had a poor performance but still did enough to beat Ghana despite scoring the winner against the run of play.

The Blazers once again failed to impress and still ran out winners. That was also the case in their 1-0 win over Panama last time around.

Tonight’s 2-1 win against the Black Stars means Croatia booked a spot in the knockout stages, finishing second in Group L behind England.

And it was very much a game of two halves. Let us explain.


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‘Bare minimum’ first half

Croatia did just enough to get the job done instead of putting full effort. Zlatko Dalic actually named quite an attacking starting XI with Ivan Perisic in the left-back position.

But the priority was to not expose themselves to risks. Croatia did successfully nullify Ghana’s build-ups. However, at the same time, didn’t overwhelm them going forward. Luckily, they didn’t have to – and that’s not to say they didn’t have merits in finding the opener.

The Black Stars set up defensively in a zonal, mid-to-low block 4-5-1. Sometimes one of the three centre-midfielders jumped forward alongside Jordan Ayew to turn it into a 4-4-2, but it was circumstantial.

Their centre-backs also didn’t really chase the Blazers’ forwards whenever they dropped deep. And Petar Sucic was the first one to recognise that and tale advantage of it, leaving the front line of their 3-2-5 and joining the midfielders.

This specific dynamic was helpful for him to find space between the lines for his goal. He had enough time and space to take the shot off and score a very well-taken long-range attempt.

Ghana’s adjustments in the second half

Ghana’s second half was comfortably better than Croatia’s first half. While one goal down, Carlos Queiroz replaced midfielder Elisha Owusu with Leicester City winger Abdul Fatawu and immediately saw positive returns.

Fatawu’s first two involvements were a dangerous shot from outside the box and a great cross to Antoine Semenyo across the face of the goal. Though the Manchester City forward couldn’t connect with the ball.


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Suddenly, the Black Stars had more energy with one-on-one plays down the wings and runs in behind to challenge Croatia’s defensive line. They were too unbothered in the first half and found it easy to sit deeper after scoring and conceding little to no danger.

Momentum shifted completely and Ghana eventually got their equaliser in a set piece.

Croatia vs Ghana match momentum chart based on expected threat differential

Croatia’s main weapons get it done

Still, Croatia found a way to get back in front. And, again, despite the poor performance, there were clear patterns in their best attacking moments.

Dalic made one defensive adjustment in the first half that made both of their goals possible. He never put the whole team forward to press high up the pitch in order to prevent Ghana from going long. It worked and their mid-block 4-5-1 made it so they ran zero risks early on.

But they were also allowing the opposing centre-backs to exchange passes too easily. So Dalic placed Nikola Vlasic as a right-wing-back to further limit Ghana’s spaces in the final third, but also allowed the other side to be more aggressive in the press.

So their whole left flank had more comfort and margin for error to step up and force a few turnovers. That’s how they got their first two decent chances, with a Vlasic shot that hit the post and penalty shouts after Ante Budimir went down in the box.

And it happened once more when Jonas Adjetey misplaced a pass inside his own half and Croatia recovered. That originated the passing sequence that ended with Sucic’s goal.

The other one was a corner kick – set pieces also helped Croatia create dangerous situations in the first half. And it happened again for Vlasic’s winner – but only after another high turnover forced from a Kwasi Sibo possession loss in Ghana’s own defending third.

So Croatia’s ability to recover the ball in the attacking half and set pieces, which represented a large part of their threatening attacks in the first half, ended up winning the game in the second half.

It’s still not enough to make anyone fear the Blazers as in the past two World Cups. But they did just enough to book an automatic spot in the knockout stages without having to wait for other teams’ results.

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