Thomas Tuchel names his 26-player England squad for the 2026 World Cup on Friday.
The Three Lions boss facing several major selection calls, particularly when it comes to the makeup of his strikeforce.
Captain Harry Kane remains the undisputed first-choice to lead the line, but the battle to be his deputy is wide open, even at this late stage.
We’ve used our Comparison Matrix to analyse Ollie Watkins, Dominic Calvert-Lewin, and Danny Welbeck to assess which of the three in-form forwards has the strongest case to join Tuchel’s squad this summer.
In this article, we’ll cover:
Goal prowess
All three strikers have enjoyed strong seasons in front of goal. Watkins and Calvert-Lewin sit level on 14 Premier League goals — the joint-most among English players alongside Morgan Gibbs-White. Danny Welbeck is just behind on 13.
This is the sixth consecutive season in which Watkins has hit double figures for Premier League goals. He was left of out England’s squad in March and suffered a slow start to the season, scoring one goal in his opening 13 appearances. But he has recovered to net 13 goals in his subsequent 23 league matches, and nine across all competitions since the start of April.
Notably, all 14 of Watkins’ league goals have gome from open play, split evenly home and away. Four have been headeers — the join-third best in the league — while one one has come from outside the area. Waktins’ 17.72% conversion rate is the lowest among the three, but his five Europa League goals played a major role in Aston Villa’s trophy triumph.
Welbeck hasn’t played for England since 2018, but is arguably playing the best football of his career. He’s hit a career-best 13 league goals this season, building on the 10 he scored in 2024-25. Four of those goals have been match-winners, and his conversion rate of 23.21% is comfortably the best of the trio — underlining just how clinical he’s been.
Confidence has once again looked key for Calvert-Lewin. The Leeds United striker caught fire with goals in six consecutive matches at the end of 2025, before going on a barren run. But he has rediscovered his form, scoring four goals in his past five league games. Four of his 14 goals have come from penalties, with only two players netting more from the spot this season. His conversion rate stands at 19.44%, too.
Shooting statistics
Calvert-Lewin has been the most trigger-happy of the three strikers this season. He’s attempted 65 shots excluding blocks in the Premier League, averaging 2.3 per 90 minutes. Both Watkins and Welbeck have averaged 1.9 shots per 90.
However, despite accumulating more shots, Calvert-Lewin trails the other two for accuracy. The Leeds man has hit the target with 50.77% of his shots, trailing Watkins’ 63.16% and Welbeck on 60.87%.
Watkins has also recorded the highest number of shots on target overall with 36, the third-most in the league. Although he’s perhaps been the unluckiest too, seeing 22 efforts blocked — more than double Welbeck’s tally (10) and over three times as many as Calvert-Lewin (seven).
All-round game
Goals will always define strikers, but the modern forward is expected to contribute far more than just finishing chances. Creativity hasn’t been a major strength for this trio this season with just five assists between them, three of which have been contributed by Watkins.
Watkins perhaps offers the most complete all-round profile. The Aston Villa forward averages 5.6 touches in the opposition box per 90, has won 22 corners for his side, and tops the trio for both take-on success (45.28%) and ground duel success (41.3%). However, he has been dispossessed 2.4 times per 90 on average, more than the other two.
Calvert-Lewin’s strengths are more physical. The Leeds striker boasts the best aerial duel success rate of the three at 40.71%, while also winning the most fouls overall (37), six more than Watkins and well clear of Welbeck’s tally of 10. He’s also picked up the fewest bookings (three) and has won two penalties this season.
Welbeck, meanwhile, has impressed with his intelligence and link-up play. The Brighton veteran averages the most chances created per 90 (0.9) and lay-offs completed per 90 (2.1), highlighting his ability to bring others into the game. He’s also been caught offside only five times all season — comfortably the lowest figure among the three — and has been tackled just 1.4 times per 90, underlining how efficiently he uses possession.
Tournament experience
| Player | Caps (under Tuchel) | Goals | Major tournaments |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ollie Watkins | 20(2) | 8 | Euro 2024 |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 12(1) | 4 | Euro 2020 |
| Danny Welbeck | 42(0) | 16 | Euro 2012, World Cup 2014, World Cup 2018 |
Stepping away from this season, tournament experience is of course a factor that will come into play.
Welbeck comfortably leads the trio for both caps (42) and goals (16) at international level. The Brighton and Hove Albion forward featured way back at Euro 2012, memorably scoring the winner against Sweden. He also played at the 2014 World Cup, and finished as England’s top scorer during Euro 2016 qualifying before injury cruelly denied him a place at the tournament itself. He also made an appearance at the 2018 World Cup, though he hasn’t represented England that year.
Calvert-Lewin has scored four goals in 12 appearances for the Three Lions and was part of England’s Euro 2020 squad, featuring twice during the tournament. However, his international career stalled after that competition before Tuchel handed him a return in March 2026, where he came off the bench against Uruguay. To date, he has earned just one cap under the new manager, lasting 34 minutes.
Watkins, meanwhile, has six goals in 20 England appearances since making his debut in 2021 and arguably owns the biggest international moment of the trio. The Aston Villa striker scored England’s dramatic stoppage-time winner against the Netherlands in the Euro 2024 semi-final and featured three times during the tournament overall. He has only played twice under Tuchel so far (59 minutes), but did find the net in one of those appearances.
Verdict
Watkins is in form, has valuable tournament experience, and was an inspired back-up to Kane at Euro 2024, memorably coming off the bench to fire in a dramatic late winner to fire his country through to the final. Watkins has peaked at just the right time, firing Aston Villa to a top-five finish and Europa League glory. It’s going to be a very close call, but he may just edge it.
There is of course a scenario where none of the three players make it. Perhaps Tuchel will favour more wingers, false nines, or No.10s, or even bring in a wild card selection such as Callum Wilson or Ivan Toney.
