Nottingham Forest have struggled under Oliver Glasner so far.
The Tricky Trees have taken just six points from their opening eight Premier League games, with only one win. Since that victory — a 2-1 win over Aston Villa — Forest have lost three and drawn one of their next four games. It sees them 18th, in the relegation zone on goals scored behind Bournemouth. However, the four teams directly above them are yet to play at the time of writing.
Questions are being asked about Glasner and whether he is the right man for the job. Especially with a strong relegation battle on the cards.
But Forest shouldn’t take such drastic measures just yet. There are reasons for fans to be optimistic, even with the poor start.
Nottingham Forest’s main problems:
The Oliver Glasner slow start
Glasner isn’t known for his quick start at new teams. It takes some time for his tactics to settle in before things start to click. So Forest winning just one of their opening nine games across all competitions isn’t the end of the world. It would be, however, if the rot doesn’t stop soon because that’s the nature of the Premier League beast.
When Glasner first took charge of Crystal Palace midway through the 2023/24 season — his first managerial job outside of Austria or Germany — he won his first game against Burnley. But the Eagles then went winless in their next five, losing three and drawing two. Things had turned around again by game nine, though, with Palace winning three in a row.
Oliver Glasner’s record after nine games at a club
| Team | Took charge in | Wins | Draws | Losses | Goals Scored | Goals Conceded | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SV Ried | 2014 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 18 | 22.22% |
| LASK | 2015 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 7 | 77.78% |
| Wolfsburg | 2019 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 18 | 9 | 55.56% |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 2021 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 13 | 11.11% |
| Crystal Palace | 2024 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 12 | 44.44% |
| Nottingham Forest | 2026 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 11.11% |
It was a similar case at Eintracht Frankfurt when Glasner took over before the 2021/22 season. The German side went winless in their first eight games across all competitions, losing two and drawing six. Eintracht didn’t get their first win under Glasner until game nine, a 1-0 victory over Royal Antwerp in the Europa League. And then they beat Bayern Munich in their 10th match. In his very first permanent managerial role, Glasner only won two of his first nine games in charge of SV Ried. They came in his first two matches, and SV Ried had to wait another 10 games to win again.
Glasner hasn’t always been a slow starter, to be fair. He went unbeaten in his first nine games at Wolfsburg, winning five and drawing four. In fact, he didn’t lose a game until his 14th match, though it was a hefty 6-1 home defeat to RB Leipzig in the DFB-Pokal. Glasner also won seven and only lost one of his first nine games at LASK.
Attacking worries
Creativity not a problem
Nottingham Forest are the joint-lowest scorers in the Premier League this season with just six goals from their eight games so far. On the face of it, that’s a big worry. But Forest’s struggles in front of goal are unlikely to be long term. And that’s because they are creating a lot of high-quality chances.
The Tricky Trees rank third in the Premier League for their Expected Goals this season, with 13.34. They’re only behind top scorers Brighton and Hove Albion (13.37) and Manchester City (15.04) — though the Seagulls have played a game less at the time of writing. Forest also rank sixth for their set-piece xG with 2.76.
Morgan Gibbs-White has been at the heart of that. The Englishman has created 20 chances in the Premier League this season, the joint-most in the division. He also ranks top for his seven big chances created, and 2.18 Expected Assists. That has translated to two assists for Gibbs-White, but the rest of Nottingham Forest’s creators haven’t been as lucky. Gibbs-White is the only one of four Forest players with at least 1.0 xA in the league this season to have provided an assist. In fact, he’s one of just three Forest players to have provided an assist — of 15 to have an xA total.
Poor finishing letting Forest down
With only six goals from 13.34 xG, it may feel obvious to say that Forest’s finishing is letting them down. It’s the worst xG underperformance in the Premier League this season. But it goes deeper than that.
Despite posting 13.34 xG, Forest’s post-shot xG drops to just 8.0. That ranks them 12th in the Premier League. The ranking alone is poor, considering where Forest stand for xG. What it shows is more damning to the Forest attack, though. With a -5.34 difference between xG and post-shot xG, Forest are drastically hurting their chances of scoring based on the placement of their shots. While it isn’t strange for a team to have a lower post-shot xG than xG, it’s rare to see the difference so big at this stage of the season.
And that’s where the players need to take responsibility. Liam Delap is the worst offender right now. He has scored one goal from his 2.67 xG, already an underperformance. And that’s because of his finishing, recording just 1.07 post-shot xG. He is scoring closer to his post-shot xG because his placement has been poor. It’s a similar story for Dan Ndoye in terms of finishing, with 2.15 xG dropping to 1.57 post-shot xG. But the Swiss international has managed to convert that into two goals.
Only two Forest players have seen an increase between their xG and post-shot xG this season. And they’re both full-backs. Neco Williams has seen his 0.95 xG rise to 1.0 post-shot xG, while Ola Aina has turned 0.08 xG into 0.10 post-shot xG.
Brighter times are ahead
The good thing about xG is that it can be used as a prediction tool, to see what a team should be doing over a longer period of time. Per game, Nottingham Forest are averaging 1.67 xG and 0.75 goals — underperforming by -0.92. If they were to keep underperforming at that rate, it’d comfortably be the worst in the Premier League since the start of 2016/17.
While teams do underperform against xG frequently, it’s never that bad. Crystal Palace currently have the worst xG underperformance per game in a single Premier League season since 2016/17. And that was “only” -0.46 last season. Of the 200 teams to have played across the 10 full seasons between 2016/17 and 2025/26, 88 have underperformed for goalscoring against their xG. But only 22 of those have underperformed by a difference of -0.20 or greater per game.
If they can work on their finishing, and keep the faith in Glasner, Nottingham Forest should be just fine.