Hull City have surprised everybody with an unbeaten start to the Premier League season, fuelled by an immaculate defensive record.
The Tigers were most pundits’ favourites to go straight back down, but already have seven points on the board after three games, and are the only remaining side in the division yet to concede a goal.
Saturday’s hard-fought 0-0 draw against Aston Villa was further proof they’re not here to make up the numbers this season. But how has Sergej Jakirovic inspired this remarkable start, and is Hull’s surprising form sustainable?
1. Hull’s simple but effective defensive set-up
Jakirovic has gone for outright pragmatism this season, setting his side up in a 5-4-1 system, with the occasional in-game switch to a 4-2-3-1, 4-4-2 or 3-4-3.
There’s nothing fancy about Hull’s defensive set-up. They sit in deep to protect their own box in numbers and with discipline, with their opponents having the highest percentage of sequences ending in the final third so far this season (49.45%). They then use the physical presence of Oli McBurnie to launch counter-attacks, with support from attacking midfielders and wing-backs.
While they’re surrendering territory and possession, the Tigers are doing the basics well. They sit second in the Premier League for clearances (101), while they have two players inside the division’s top four for combined blocks and clearances, with John Egan on 32 and Nobel Mendy on 24.
In front of the back line, Lucas Gourna-Douath has provided an incredible screen. The Frenchman is already averaging 2.83 tackles and 1.42 interceptions per 90 minutes, alongside 11.3 overall defensive contributions per 90.
A deep block made up of defenders winning their duels and tenacious midfielders has made Hull extremely difficult to play through, giving their forwards the chance to pounce as they did in wins over Manchester United and Coventry City.
2. Is Hull’s record sustainable?
While it has inspired a brilliant start to life back in the Premier League, there are underlying concerns that Hull won’t be able to keep up this defensive solidity for long.
Coventry City generated 1.23 xG against them in week two, and that’s the lowest any side has managed against Jakirovic’s side in a league game so far this season.
Only three sides have conceded more shots inside the box than Hull (32), whose xG against currently stands at 5.0.
Goalkeeper Konstantinos Tzolakis has been the key reason why Hull are yet to be breached. The Greece international is first among Premier League stoppers in our Squawka Score ratings at 80%, making nine saves worth 0.58 goals prevented.
Tzolakis is also second among goalkeepers for high claims (7) and sweeper-keeper regains (3), and first among all English top-flight players for ball recoveries (43).
A loss of form from Tzolakis could be catastrophic for Hull, given the high level of xG they’re yielding to opponents.
What’s more, only one of their three goals so far has come from open play, with both their strikes against Man Utd the result of set-pieces. No Hull player has scored more than once in the Premier League yet, while starting striker McBurnie has missed both of his big chances and remains without a goal.
There have been some incredible early signs from this unfancied, newly-promoted underdog. But finding a regular goalscorer and relieving some of the pressure on his goalkeeper will be top of the to-do list on the training ground for Jakirovic.