Liam Rosenior had started life as Chelsea manager well.
His appointment in January wasn’t well received by Chelsea fans, brought in to replace Enzo Maresca. The Englishman was perceived to have been given the job because he was managing Strasbourg — who are also owned by BlueCo.
While he always kept his doubters, Rosenior was seeing his side get results on the pitch. Chelsea won 10 of their first 15 games under Rosenior, losing three and drawing two. All three defeats came against Arsenal, in the Carabao Cup semi-finals and Premier League.
But Chelsea have been on a torrid run since. The Blues have won just one of their past eight matches across all competitions, and that was against Port Vale, who are about to get relegated from League One. It’s a run that has cost Rosenior his job.
Just why have Chelsea been so bad?
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Chelsea’s toothless attack
The main story of Chelsea’s recent poor run has been their attack. They’ve failed to score in six of their past seven games across all competitions. It’s five in a row without a goal in the Premier League alone, the first time they’ve ever achieved such a run in the competition.
The defeat to Brighton and Hove Albion was perhaps the most damning, as Chelsea failed to have a single shot on target. And the underlying numbers don’t make for good reading.
Looking at just the Premier League and Champions League, Chelsea were averaging 2.3 goals per game in Rosenior’s opening run. That has dropped to 0.29 across their past seven games.
This comes despite Chelsea averaging more shots per game. It’s not by too much, but the numbers have increased from 13.2 per game to 14.29. While chances created aren’t the best metric for assessing a team, the numbers have also increased in Chelsea’s poor run. Their players have accumulated an average of 11.43 chances created per game across the past seven matches, compared to 9.5 during Rosenior’s bright start.
The problem is the quality of the chances. Chelsea averaged 2.36 Expected Goals per game in Rosenior’s first 10 league and Champions League matches. Not only is that a good average, but they were scoring pretty close to the xG. That was despite their post-shot xG dropping to 2.16. So their shot placement wasn’t as good, but it wasn’t stopping them scoring.
Now, despite taking more shots per game, Chelsea’s xG across their past seven matches has significantly dropped to just 1.1 per match. In whole numbers, Chelsea’s xG has dropped from 23.62 from 132 shots to 7.69 xG from 100 efforts. That’s an average of 0.08 xG per shot, compared to 0.18.
A wider team problem
Joao Pedro has undoubtedly been a big miss in Chelsea’s past two games, absent through injury. But he has also played his part in the poor run of form. The Brazilian has matched his shots average between his first 10 league and Champions League to the past five, at 3.68 per 90 minutes. But his shots on target have dropped from 1.72 per 90 to just 0.69, with 46.67% accuracy decreasing to 18.75%.
Joao Pedro’s xG has also dropped from 0.92 per 90 to 0.31, meaning his chances are worse despite averaing the same amount of shots. His lack of shots on target, though, has been his own fault. Across Rosenior’s first 10 league and Champions League games, Joao Pedro averaged 0.94 post-shot xG. So he was increasing his chances of scoring based on shot placement. Across his past five league and Champions League games, Joao Pedro’s post-shot xG is 0.11 — a decrease of 0.20 per 90.
This is an attack lacking confidence, and it shows.
Leaky defence
Chelsea are also poor at the other end of the pitch. And the numbers don’t make for good reading.
The Blues are only averaging slightly more shots conceded per game in their current poor run. They’ve averaged 10.04 per game compared to 9.9 during Rosenior’s first 10 league and Champions League matches. And the chances haven’t actually been as good. They’ve faced 1.19 xG per game across the past seven matches, compared to 1.27 in Rosenior’s opening run.
Now, the finishing has been much better from opponents, with post-shot xG jumping from 1.31 per game to 2.3. And opposition players know they have a chance to score, given Chelsea’s woes. All of that has contributed to Chelsea conceding 2.71 goals in their past seven league and Champions League games, up from 1.2 in the first 10 under Rosenior.
The biggest issue here has been Chelsea’s own errors. In the first 10 games under Rosenior, the Blues made 0.7 errors leading to shots, with only 0.1 leading to goals. In the past six matches? That’s gone up to 1.67 errors leading to a shot and 0.71 errors leading to goals. Chelsea are their own worst enemy.
And that’s despite Robert Sanchez having to make more saves, up from 3.1 per game to 3.43. A lack of clean sheets was a theme across Rosenior’s entire spell so far, which doesn’t help.
Interestingly, Chelsea have been winning possession more in the attacking and defensive thirds in this current run. And the jumps are healthy, up from 3.5 to 5.0 in the attacking third, and 15.17 to 17.14 in the defensive third. But they are losing the midfield battle more. Chelsea are averaging 15.86 possessions won in the middle third per game across their past seven matches, down from 18.8. And they’re making fewer tackles at 13.57 per game, compared to 16, despite having less of the ball.
There’s a lot going wrong for Chelsea, on and off the pitch. And it’s hard to see them turning things around without drastic changes — further than just sacking Rosenior.