Ballon d’Or odds for 2026 make Harry Kane the 4/7 favourite, clear of Lamine Yamal at 11/4 after the 30-man shortlist was revealed.
The race for football’s biggest individual award was transformed by the 2026 World Cup. Kane has been backed into odds-on after another remarkable campaign for club and country, shortening from 7/4 to 4/7 as the shortlist landed on 8th September.
Spain’s World Cup triumph still underpins the cases for Lamine Yamal and Rodri, though both have eased as Kane has hardened. Meanwhile, Lionel Messi’s run to a second consecutive World Cup final no longer keeps the Argentine among the leading contenders: he has gone out to 22/1.
The 30-man shortlist was revealed on 8th September, with the award to be presented at the London Palladium on Monday 26th October, the first time the ceremony has been staged in London. Below, we assess the leading contenders in the latest Ballon d’Or betting.
| Player | Sky Bet odds |
|---|---|
| Harry Kane | 4/7 |
| Lamine Yamal | 11/4 |
| Rodri | 9/2 |
| Kylian Mbappe | 6/1 |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 7/1 |
| Lionel Messi | 22/1 |
| Ousmane Dembele | 22/1 |
| Jude Bellingham | 22/1 |
| Michael Olise | 22/1 |
| Fabian Ruiz | 22/1 |
| Erling Haaland | 28/1 |
| Achraf Hakimi | 40/1 |
| Declan Rice | 40/1 |
Ballon d’Or odds: the 2026 favourites
Harry Kane – 4/7
Harry Kane has moved to the head of the market after arguably the finest season of his career.
The England captain’s wait for major silverware is now a thing of the past. He helped Bayern Munich to a second straight Bundesliga title and the DFB-Pokal, before leading the Three Lions to the World Cup semi-finals. Kane once again finished among Europe’s leading goalscorers, combining relentless finishing with his trademark creativity.
Although England fell short against Argentina, Kane was consistent all summer and finished with six goals. As a result, he is now odds-on at 4/7, having been a 7/4 chance as recently as the start of September.
Lamine Yamal – 11/4
Lamine Yamal continues to rewrite the record books.
Still only a teenager, the Barcelona winger inspired Spain to World Cup glory. He produced another series of match-winning performances on the biggest stage. His creativity, dribbling and composure regularly separated him from defenders throughout the tournament. In turn, it cemented his status as one of the world’s elite attackers.
Winning the World Cup has propelled Yamal into serious Ballon d’Or contention. At 11/4 he is the only realistic threat to Kane in the betting, though he has eased a fraction from 9/4.
Rodri – 9/2
Rodri reminded everyone why he remains one of football’s most influential players.
The Manchester City midfielder controlled games throughout Spain’s victorious World Cup campaign. Then he capped an outstanding year by lifting the biggest trophy in international football. His ability to dictate possession, break up attacks and deliver in decisive moments makes him one of the leading candidates.
Few midfielders combine consistency and silverware as effectively as World Cup Golden Ball winner Rodri. Therefore, 9/2 is a fair reflection of his credentials.
Kylian Mbappe – 6/1
Kylian Mbappe rarely stays out of Ballon d’Or discussions for long.
The France captain enjoyed another prolific season at club level. He continued to deliver on the international stage, too, despite Les Bleus falling short of another World Cup final. His pace, finishing and ability to decide the biggest matches keep him among the leading contenders. Mbappe became the all-time World Cup top goalscorer this summer, taking his tally to 22. He also won the tournament’s Golden Boot.
Another strong domestic campaign means Mbappe cannot be discounted, though he has drifted from 9/2 to 6/1.
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia – 7/1
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia is the biggest mover in the market. The Georgian was a 33/1 shot before the shortlist was announced and is now 7/1, making him the fifth favourite and the only name outside the established contenders to have shortened that sharply.
Lionel Messi – 22/1
Lionel Messi was priced at 50/1 to win the Ballon d’Or when the 2026 World Cup got underway. However, his stunning performances for Argentina have dramatically changed the picture.
The 39-year-old registered eight goals and four assists in eight matches, inspiring the defending champions to another World Cup Final. In turn, his Ballon d’Or odds shrank to 4/1. They have since drifted a long way back out to 22/1.
Messi’s creativity remained central to Lionel Scaloni’s side. His influence on and off the pitch reinforced his standing as one of the game’s greatest players.
Although Argentina narrowly missed out on retaining their title, the market has cooled on the Argentine since the shortlist was published, and 22/1 now rates him an outsider rather than a contender.
Who else is in the mix?
Jude Bellingham (22/1) enjoyed another excellent campaign despite England’s semi-final exit. Meanwhile, Ousmane Dembele (22/1) remains an outsider after another impressive season.
Fabian Ruiz (22/1) enhanced his reputation during Spain’s successful World Cup campaign. Michael Olise (22/1) is also attracting support following an outstanding breakthrough year for club and country.
Erling Haaland (28/1) will hope another fast start to the season keeps him in contention, while Achraf Hakimi and Declan Rice are both 40/1. Pau Cubarsi, a 33/1 chance before the shortlist, is no longer quoted.
How the Ballon d’Or is decided
The Ballon d’Or is awarded by France Football, in partnership with UEFA, and voted for by a jury of international journalists. The jury ranks players on individual performances, team achievements and sportsmanship.
Since 2022, the award has covered a full season rather than a calendar year. That means the 2026 edition weighs the 2025/26 club campaign together with the World Cup.
Previous winners
| Player | Year |
|---|---|
| Ousmane Dembele (PSG) | 2025 |
| Rodri (Man City) | 2024 |
| Lionel Messi (Inter Miami) | 2023 |
| Karim Benzema (Real Madrid) | 2022 |
| Lionel Messi (PSG) | 2021 |
| No award due to COVID pandemic | 2020 |
| Lionel Messi (Barcelona) | 2019 |
| Luka Modric (Real Madrid) | 2018 |
| Cristiano Ronaldo (Real Madrid) | 2017 |
| Cristiano Ronaldo (Real Madrid) | 2016 |
Ballon d’Or odds FAQ
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Harry Kane is the 4/7 favourite after a season that brought the Bundesliga title, the DFB-Pokal and a World Cup semi-final with England. Lamine Yamal is next at 11/4.
Ousmane Dembele won the 2025 award after an outstanding season with Paris Saint-Germain.
The 2026 Ballon d’Or will be presented at the London Palladium on Monday 26th October 2026, the first time the ceremony has been held in London. The award covers performances across the 2025/26 club season and the 2026 World Cup.
Messi has won a record eight Ballon d’Ors, most recently in 2023. Victory in 2026 would make it nine.
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