Nicolas Jackson looks to have finally found his feet at Aston Villa.
The Senegalese striker signed from Chelsea for £47.5million in the summer having spent last season on loan with Bayern Munich. He arrived as a replacement for Ollie Watkins, who left Villa for Al-Hilal for £50m, after 108 goals in 278 games for the Villans.
After scoring one goal in his opening five games across all competitions, Jackson now has four in his past three. It isn’t a purple patch, either. This should be a sign of things to come for the striker at Villa Park.
In this article, we’ll cover:
Better than the stats suggest
Jackson has been a polarising figure since entering the eyes of English football fans. The 25-year-old scored 30 goals in 81 games for Chelsea across all competitions, and 11 in 34 for Bayern Munich last season. But that doesn’t tell the whole story.
One of Jackson’s best attributes is getting himself into key positions. Since his first Premier League campaign with Chelsea, Jackson has averaged 1.05 big chances per 90 minutes. Only four players with at least 5,000 minutes played have managed more during that time — Erling Haaland, Alexander Isak, Watkins and Mo Salah. Not bad company to be trailing. Only two other players managed at least 1.0 big chances per 90.
Jackson also ranks fourth in the Premier League for Expected Goals during that time, averaging 0.54 per 90. Haaland (0.84), Isak (0.69) and Salah (0.61) are the only players to average more xG per 90. And he did all this starting in a new league at the age of just 22. Even now he’s only just turned 25, and is yet to hit his peak.
Jackson is also useful off the ball. A keen and constant runner, when Jackson doesn’t get the ball he still drags opposition defenders away from key areas on the pitch — opening up space for his teammates. There were so many goals at Chelsea that he influenced just by his positioning, even if he wasn’t directly involved. And he still averaged 1.18 chances created per 90 with 0.17 assists, ranking sixth and fifth, respectively, for those metrics among strikers.
Up and running for Aston Villa
Moving onto this season, Jackson has five goals in the Premier League and Champions League. Only Haaland (10) has scored more across both competitions so far. Jackson also ranks third for his 0.84 goals per 90, among players with at least 315 minutes played across the two competitions.
That’s a running theme. Jackson is among the busiest and best strikers in the Premier League right now, even if it did take him a few games to get going. The 25-year-old has taken 20 shots across the league and Europe so far, at an average of 3.35 per 90, sitting in the top 10. But he also ranks fourth for his 1.51 shots on target per 90. That’s without getting into many big chance positions just yet, though that will come with time.
The main point for Jackson this season has been the improvement of his finishing. In his first three Premier League seasons, the Senegalese striker scored 26 goals from his total 32.23 xG — meaning he had netted 6.23 goals fewer than he was expected to. This season, in the league and Champions League, Jackson’s 1.78 xG has produced five goals. That’s an incredible overperformance. Jackson has helped his own case too, with 2.29 post-shot xG — improving his chances of scoring based on his shot placement.
He has also improved his movement with the ball. Jackson has completed 2.84 take-ons per 90 in the league and Europe this season, a big improvement on his 1.38 from his first three seasons in the Premier League.
What does Jackson need to do to replace Watkins?
There is still a way to go before Jackson can fully replace Watkins at Aston Villa. And that’s more to do with the legacy of the Englishman than any of Jackson’s shortcomings.
The main thing that Jackson will need to work on is his shot accuracy. Jackson is currently averaging 2.14 shots (excluding blocks) per 90 in the Premier League this season. That’s more than Watkins’ 1.89 from his final league campaign at Villa. But Jackson trails Watkins for shots on target (0.95 to 1.20), goals (0.47 to 0.50) and conversion rate (16.67% to 19.28%) per 90.
That has been Jackson’s biggest problem. He needs more chances than some to score goals. But he is frequently getting those chances. At times, it feels as though the striker works better when he has less time to overthink and relies more on the goalscoring instinct that is there. If he could improve on that, his misses may be less costly. And he’d have a game-winning impact like Watkins did.
Jackson is more involved with the rest of his team, creating 0.95 chances per 90, though he is yet to provide an assist. And while he averages fewer fouls won and touches won in the opposition box per 90 than Watkins, Jackson is certainly on the right path. That’s the most important thing for Villa fans. If the Senegalese striker continues on his trajectory, and builds on this recent scoring run, he can ensure that Aston Villa quickly forget about Watkins.