Combining pre-season fan thoughts and bookmaker odds to create an expectation index, we take a look at which teams are overperforming and underperforming in this season’s Premier League.
Our expectation index measures how each side’s start compares with what the bookies and fans expected before a ball was kicked, with every team given a performance score out of 100.
A score of 50 means they’re right on track, and the further a side is from that, the more they’ve overperformed or underperformed. With five games played, there are already some big surprises at both ends of the table, and we’ve explained exactly how the scores are worked out below.
Hull top the index ahead of Manchester City, and they’ve earned it. The Tigers went into the season as relegation favourites with the bookies and were tipped to finish rock bottom by the fans. The bookies’ line had them down for around three points by this stage, but they’ve picked up eight from their first five games and sit eighth in the table.
City’s start is impressive, too, with five wins from five, and they share Hull’s score of 97. The Citizens went into the campaign expected to win most weeks, so the bookies had them down for around ten points from their first five games. Hull’s start is the rarer of the two, which is why they edge top spot.
At the other end, Tottenham are propping up the table and bottom of the index with a score of just two. Both the bookies and the fans had Spurs pencilled in around sixth, which would have meant roughly eight points by now. Instead, they’re still waiting for their first win, with two draws and three defeats leaving them on two points.
Goals have been the main problem. Spurs have scored just twice all season, both in a 3-2 defeat to Aston Villa, and they’ve failed to score in their other four games. xG suggests they’ve deserved closer to six points, but even that would leave them short of where they were expected to be, and only one side in 33 with Tottenham’s expectations would make a start this bad.
| # | Club | Score | Verdict | Current Position | Bookies Expectation | Fans Expectation | Points | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hull City | 97 | Massively overperforming | 8th | 20th | 20th | 8 | 5.9 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 97 | Massively overperforming | 1st | 2nd | 2nd | 15 | 8.5 |
| 3 | Brighton | 86 | Overperforming | 3rd | 8th | 8th | 10 | 8.4 |
| 4 | Leeds United | 82 | Overperforming | 5th | 12th | 16th | 9 | 7.3 |
| 5 | Everton | 80 | Overperforming | 7th | 13th | 12th | 9 | 7.0 |
| 6 | Brentford | 79 | Overperforming | 4th | 9th | 11th | 9 | 8.1 |
| 7 | Ipswich Town | 73 | Overperforming | 11th | 19th | 19th | 6 | 6.3 |
| 8 | Newcastle United | 71 | Overperforming | 9th | 11th | 10th | 8 | 4.5 |
| 9 | Arsenal | 67 | On track | 2nd | 1st | 1st | 12 | 9.1 |
| 10 | Liverpool | 47 | On track | 6th | 3rd | 3rd | 9 | 7.8 |
| 11 | Nottingham Forest | 37 | On track | 13th | 10th | 17th | 5 | 8.6 |
| 12 | Coventry City | 30 | On track | 18th | 18th | 18th | 3 | 5.0 |
| 13 | Sunderland | 27 | Underperforming | 14th | 17th | 13th | 4 | 7.9 |
| 14 | Chelsea | 25 | Underperforming | 10th | 5th | 5th | 7 | 5.9 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 24 | Underperforming | 15th | 15th | 14th | 4 | 5.0 |
| 16 | Bournemouth | 12 | Underperforming | 17th | 14th | 9th | 3 | 7.9 |
| 17 | Aston Villa | 11 | Underperforming | 16th | 7th | 6th | 4 | 4.7 |
| 18 | Manchester United | 9 | Massively underperforming | 12th | 4th | 4th | 5 | 8.6 |
| 19 | Fulham | 8 | Massively underperforming | 19th | 16th | 15th | 2 | 6.1 |
| 20 | Tottenham Hotspur | 2 | Massively underperforming | 20th | 6th | 7th | 2 | 5.7 |
Score: 50 = exactly as expected, 100 = far better, 0 = far worse. Bookies = Sporting Index pre-season points lines. Fans = median TablePredict pre-season prediction. xPts = points deserved from xG. Correct after five games.
How the Squawka Expectation Index works
To build the index, we’ve looked at where each Premier League side was expected to finish before a ball was kicked, then compared that to how their season has actually started.
We’ve used two sets of expectations. The first comes from the bookmakers, using Sporting Index’s season points lines from 20 August, the day before the opening weekend. The second comes from the supporters, using the median finishing position across the pre-season tables submitted on TablePredict before entries closed. We’ve turned the fans’ predictions into a points total, so they can be measured alongside the bookies’ lines.
Each side is then given a performance score out of 100, based on how likely their points tally was after the current amount of games.
A score of 50 means a team is right where they were expected to be. The closer a side gets to 100, the more they’ve outperformed expectations, while anything down towards 0 suggests things haven’t gone to plan. The ‘how rare’ column gives an idea of how often a team with those expectations would make a start like this.
We’ve also included the points each team deserved based on the expected goals (xG) they’ve created and conceded in every match. It gives a good indication of which sides are riding their luck and who should improve.
We’ll continue to update the table as the season goes on to find which teams are performing above – or below – that expectation.
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