Turkey host Italy in a Nations League Group A1 tie in Bursa on Monday (7.45pm), both looking for a first point after opening defeats, with Italy still searching for form under Roberto Mancini.
Anthony Eadson’s Turkey vs Italy predictions, best bets and score prediction are below.
Premium Tips
Anthony Eadson expects a tight, low-scoring game.
| Premium Tip | Odds | Why we’re backing it |
|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 goals | 29/22 (BoyleSports) | Neither side scored on the opening matchday, Italy losing 2-0 at home to Belgium and Turkey beaten 1-0 by France, and Turkey have failed to score in three of their last four competitive games. They are also without their two main creators, Hakan Calhanoglu and Kenan Yildiz, while Orkun Kokcu is a major doubt. Under 2.5 goals has landed in four of Italy’s last five matches, and the last meeting between these sides finished 0-0 in June 2024. BoyleSports’ 29/22 is a big price for a tight, cagey game in Bursa. |
| The draw | 14/5 (BoyleSports) | Four of the 13 meetings between these sides have been drawn, including the most recent 0-0 in Bologna in June 2024, and Turkey have never beaten Italy. The bookmakers can barely split them, with Turkey 22/13 and Italy 38/25 at BoyleSports. Both teams lost their openers and will be wary of a second defeat, and both are hit by absences, with Turkey missing goalkeeper Ugurcan Cakir, Calhanoglu and Yildiz, and Italy without Federico Dimarco, Bryan Cristante and Manuel Locatelli. BoyleSports’ 14/5 on the draw is well worth backing. |
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How Turkey go into the game
Turkey lost 1-0 to France on the opening matchday, and goalkeeper Ugurcan Cakir is suspended after being sent off in that game. They are also without Hakan Calhanoglu and Kenan Yildiz, and Orkun Kokcu is a major doubt.
Vincenzo Montella’s side carry a threat through Arda Guler, but they have failed to score in three of their last four competitive games and have never beaten Italy.
How Italy go into the game
Italy slumped to a 2-0 home defeat by Belgium on Roberto Mancini’s return, their first competitive defeat in 90 minutes this year, and are still reeling from missing a third straight World Cup after losing the play-off final to Bosnia on penalties.
They are without Federico Dimarco, Bryan Cristante and Manuel Locatelli, but they are unbeaten in 13 meetings with Turkey and won friendlies against Greece and Luxembourg 1-0 before this window.
Turkey vs Italy head-to-head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/06/24 | Italy | 0-0 | Turkey |
| 29/03/22 | Turkey | 2-3 | Italy |
| 11/06/21 | Turkey | 0-3 | Italy |
Italy have never lost to Turkey in 13 meetings, winning nine and drawing four, including a 3-0 victory at Euro 2020. The most recent meeting was a 0-0 friendly draw in Bologna in June 2024.
Turkey vs Italy predictions & betting tips
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 goals | 29/22 (BoyleSports) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Neither side scored on matchday one. |
| The draw | 14/5 (BoyleSports) | ⭐⭐ | Four of 13 meetings drawn. |
| Both teams to score | 8/13 (Betfred) | ⭐⭐ | Both need a spark and could each nick one. |
Turkey vs Italy score prediction
Neither side is scoring freely and Italy have never lost to Turkey, so a low-scoring draw looks a likely outcome in Bursa. Score prediction: Turkey 1-1 Italy.
