Our Bills vs Texans prediction is the closest call among the good sides, at 6pm BST on the opening Sunday of the 2026 NFL season. Squawka Signal’s live read on this game, including where the value sits, is in the block just below.
Seven points of differential separated these two across an entire season, Buffalo at plus 116 and Houston plus 109. The styles diverge, though: Buffalo scored 481 points, Houston conceded just 295.
Bills vs Texans: our editor’s prop
One editorial call to sit alongside the live Signal numbers above.
AT 
Our prop
An editorial call, not a Signal model output. 18+ | BeGambleAware.org
Bills vs Texans: 2025 season form
Buffalo finished 12-5 at plus 116; Houston 12-5 at plus 109 on nine straight wins.
| 2025 regular season | Bills | Texans |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 12-5 | 12-5 |
| Points for | 481 | 404 |
| Points against | 365 | 295 |
| Point differential | +116 | +109 |
| Sacks recorded | 36 | 47 |
| Sacks allowed | 40 | 31 |
| Interceptions made | 13 | 19 |
| Third-down offence | 44.8% | 37.2% |
| Red-zone offence | 66.2% | 46.3% |
| Red zone allowed | 59.6% | 56.8% |
| Opponent passer rating | 79.8 | 76.2 |
The contrast is offence against defence. Buffalo scored 481 to Houston’s 404, while Houston conceded 295 to Buffalo’s 365. Neither edge is obviously the larger.
Bills vs Texans injury report and team news
This section updates as soon as the Out, Doubtful and Questionable tags land. Notably, for now, both sides expect their first-choice quarterbacks.
Josh Allen starts for Buffalo with James Cook III in the backfield after a league-leading 1,621 rushing yards. Khalil Shakir leads the receiving group, moreover.
C.J. Stroud starts for Houston. Nico Collins leads the receivers after 1,117 yards, meanwhile, with Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. anchoring the defence.
The matchup that settles it: the best rushing attack against the meanest defence
James Cook III ran for 1,621 yards in 2025, more than any other player in the league, and Buffalo scored 481 points on the back of it.
Houston conceded 295 points over the same season, the lowest figure in the round, with 47 sacks from Hunter and Anderson. Consequently something has to give.
Players to watch
- Josh Allen (BUF, QB): 3,668 passing yards for a 12-5 side.
- James Cook III (BUF, RB): 1,621 rushing yards, indeed the most in the league.
- Danielle Hunter (HOU, DE): 15 sacks, notably the most on either roster.
- Nico Collins (HOU, WR): 1,117 receiving yards, moreover, for the meanest defence in the round.
How to watch Bills vs Texans
Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, September 13, which is 6pm BST in the UK. That makes it one of the friendliest windows of the week for British viewers, indeed, landing in the early evening rather than the small hours. Sky Sports has the coverage, and NFL Game Pass on DAZN carries every game. Squawka may earn a commission if you subscribe through that link.
| Detail | Bills vs Texans |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, September 13, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 6:00pm BST / 1:00 PM ET, Sunday 13 Sep |
| Venue | NRG Stadium, Houston |
| TV | Sky Sports |
| Live stream | NFL Game Pass (DAZN) |
| Week | Week 1, 2026 NFL season |
Bills vs Texans prediction and score projection
Our Bills vs Texans prediction is a narrow Buffalo win, and narrow is the operative word. These two finished seven points apart on differential.
The Texans hold home field, the better defence and a nine-game winning run. However Buffalo scored 77 more points and hold the league’s leading rusher. So we will take the Bills, 24-22. Which side carries the value, though, is a separate question from who wins, and the live read on that sits in the Signal block.
Every fixture in the round is covered across our NFL UK hub, and the 32 club pages sit on the NFL teams hub. Kickoff times are confirmed on NFL.com.
Bills vs Texans FAQ
There is almost nothing in it. Both finished 12-5, seven points apart on differential. Ultimately the live win probability sits in the Signal block on this page.
Notably 6pm BST on Sunday 13 September, which is 1:00 PM ET.
Sky Sports has the coverage and NFL Game Pass on DAZN carries every game. Moreover kickoff is Notably 6pm BST on Sunday 13 September, which is 1:00 PM ET.
Josh Allen, with James Cook III in the backfield. Meanwhile C.J. Stroud starts for Houston.
Bills 24-22. Buffalo scored 77 more points last season, though Houston conceded the fewest in the round.
18+ | Please gamble responsibly | BeGambleAware.org | Signal probabilities approximate at time of writing and subject to change