The FA Cup final takes centre stage on Saturday as Chelsea take on Manchester City at Wembley. The Blues arrive here with just one point from their last five league games, while Pep Guardiola’s side are in good form after a comfortable 3-0 win over Crystal Palace on Wednesday.
Best bets & predictions
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why I’m Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 Goals & Under 4.5 Cards | 5/4 @ Betfair (44.4%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Over the last 54 domestic and european matches played at Wembley, there has been an average of just 1.93 goals, with a whopping 92% of those matches featuring under 3.5 goals. Finals can often be cagey and low-scoring affairs and with Chelsea being so poor in front of goal lately, I’m happy to have it onside here. I’ll be pairing this with under 4.5 cards, which takes us to a very backable 5/4. |
| Doku to Score Anytime | 19/5 @ BetMGM (20.8%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Jeremy Doku was rested on Wednesday evening for Manchester City’s 3-0 win over Crystal Palace. The Belgian has been in sensational form and has scored four goals in his last four appearances. At 19/5 he is a stand-out best price with BetMGM and I think he’s a lot more chance of finding the net than the 20.8% chance his odds imply. |
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How both teams head into Chelsea vs Man City
Chelsea head into this contest under mounting pressure after losing seven of their last nine Premier League matches, including a 3-0 defeat against Manchester City earlier in the campaign. Calum McFarlane remains in interim charge following Liam Rosenior’s dismissal, but results have shown little sign of improvement. Goals have also been a major issue for the Blues, who have scored just seven times across those nine league games.
Manchester City arrive in far stronger form as Pep Guardiola’s side continue their pursuit of Premier League leaders Arsenal. City have won four of their last five league matches and remain one of the division’s most dangerous attacking teams after scoring 75 goals in 36 Premier League games. They have also averaged 2.4 goals per match in the FA Cup this season.
Chelsea team news
Chelsea are still dealing with several injury concerns ahead of Saturday’s clash. Estevao and Jamie Gittens are both ruled out with thigh injuries, while Jesse Derry will miss the remainder of the season following a head injury. Robert Sanchez faces a late fitness test after returning to training this week, and there is optimism surrounding Pedro Neto and Alejandro Garnacho after both trained well in recent sessions. Mykhailo Mudryk also remains unavailable due to suspension.
Manchester City team news
Rodri is the only injury concern for City. Haaland, Doku and Cherki should return to the starting XI after being rested against Crystal Palace.
Chelsea vs Manchester City Odds
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 12/04/26 | Chelsea 0-3 Manchester City | Premier League |
| 04/01/26 | Manchester City 1-1 Chelsea | Premier League |
| 25/01/25 | Manchester City 3-1 Chelsea | Premier League |
| 18/08/24 | Chelsea 0-2 Manchester City | Premier League |
| 20/04/24 | Manchester City 1-0 Chelsea | FA Cup |
| 17/02/24 | Manchester City 1-1 Chelsea | Premier League |
Conclusion
City arrive here in much better form and are well fancied to lift the trophy after resting several key players in midweek. Back Under 3.5 goals and Under 4.5 cards at 5/4, with 92% of the last 54 European and domestic matches played at Wembley featuring under four goals.
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