West Ham are leaking goals for fun and clinging to Premier League safety by their fingernails, while Crystal Palace have quietly turned into one of the league’s most awkward away days.
This one’s at Selhurst Park, Monday at 8pm. West Ham’s backline has more holes than a Sunday pub side, but Palace aren’t exactly prolific either. Palace don’t have much to play for in the league but there is plenty on the line for the visitors.
Best Bets & Predictions
Palace’s defensive improvements stand out — 11 clean sheets in 31, conceding just 1.16 per game. West Ham, by contrast, are shipping 1.78 per match and have only kept five clean sheets all season. The prices have Palace as slight favourites, and I agree. But the real value is in the goalscorer market — Mateta is quietly putting up proper striker numbers and the odds haven’t caught up.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why I’m Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace to Win | 13/10 @ Betfred (43.5%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Palace have 11 clean sheets in 31 (35.5%) and are conceding just 1.16 per game. West Ham concede 1.78 per match and have lost half their games. Palace’s away record is decent, and the Hammers look lost. 13/10 implies 43.5%, but with Palace’s defensive edge, I make it closer to 50%. |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta Anytime Goalscorer | 13/8 @ BetVictor (38.1%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Mateta has 10 goals in 25 appearances — that’s 0.46 goals per 90 (10 goals in 1969 mins). Against a defence conceding 1.78 per game, he’s a proper threat. 13/8 gives an implied 38.1%, but his rate suggests it should be closer to 45%. |
Odds correct at the time of writing.
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Crystal Palace vs West Ham match odds
How both teams head into Crystal Palace vs West Ham
Crystal Palace’s 2025/26 Premier League campaign has been a narrative of defensive resilience and continental ambition. After 31 matches, the Eagles sit 13th with 42 points, maintaining a record of 11 wins, 9 draws, and 11 losses. A goal difference of -1 reflects a competitive season, having scored 35 times while conceding 36.
Oliver Glasner’s side has notably excelled away, securing 23 points on their travels compared to 19 at Selhurst Park. Jean-Philippe Mateta remains the primary threat, leading the scoring with 10 goals, followed by Ismaila Sarr with 7. Defensively, Dean Henderson has been pivotal, recording 11 clean sheets and a 73.6% save rate. Despite a mid-season slump in early 2026, recent form has improved with vital victories over Newcastle and Wolves. Furthermore, their impressive run to the UEFA Conference League semi-finals has added prestige to a steady domestic campaign.
West Ham United’s 2025/26 Premier League campaign has been a testing period of transition and defensive vulnerability. After 32 matches, the Hammers occupy 17th position with 32 points, hovering precariously above the relegation zone. Their record of 8 wins, 8 draws, and 16 losses highlights a lack of consistency, exacerbated by a significant goal difference of -17.
Nuno Espirito Santo’s side has struggled defensively, conceding 57 goals at an average of 1.78 per game. Offensively, Jarrod Bowen remains the talisman, leading the squad with 8 goals and 8 assists. Support has come from Mateus Fernandes, though the team’s 40 goals scored reflects a profligate attack. Despite a difficult winter, recent results have offered hope, including a dominant 4-0 victory over Wolves and a resilient 1-1 draw against Manchester City. With six games remaining, securing top-flight status remains the absolute priority.
Crystal Palace team news
Crystal Palace face West Ham on Monday with significant injury concerns following their European triumph in Florence. Midfielder Adam Wharton and defender Maxence Lacroix are both major doubts after being forced off during the first half against Fiorentina. Wharton is battling an adductor issue, while Lacroix suffered a painful knee injury. Manager Oliver Glasner remains hopeful, confirming both will be assessed ahead of the clash. Meanwhile, Chris Richards and Chadi Riad are available to deputise.
West Ham team news
West Ham United travel to Crystal Palace on Monday with several fitness concerns. Head coach Nuno Espírito Santo confirmed that defender Jean-Clair Todibo and winger Crysencio Summerville are facing late fitness tests due to calf injuries. Veteran goalkeeper Lukasz Fabianski remains sidelined with a persistent back issue. However, the Hammers are boosted by the availability of Jarrod Bowen and Taty Castellanos. Nuno has urged his squad to maintain focus following their recent emphatic victory now.
Head-to-Head: Last six meetings
These two have met nine times in the last five years — and it’s been lively. Palace have won five, West Ham three, and one draw. The last meeting saw Palace win 2-1 away back in September. Goals are never far away in this fixture with an average of 3.83 goals per game over the last six matches.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 20/09/25 | West Ham 1-2 Crystal Palace | Premier League |
| 18/01/25 | West Ham 0-2 Crystal Palace | Premier League |
| 24/08/24 | Crystal Palace 0-2 West Ham | Premier League |
| 21/04/24 | Crystal Palace 5-2 West Ham | Premier League |
| 03/12/23 | West Ham 1-1 Crystal Palace | Premier League |
| 29/04/23 | Crystal Palace 4-3 West Ham | Premier League |
Can Palace’s Defence Outshine West Ham’s Attack? Final Thoughts
West Ham’s defensive numbers are the stuff of nightmares — 57 conceded in 32, and the xA says that’s not just bad luck. Palace aren’t world-beaters, but their clean sheet rate and Mateta’s finishing give them the edge. I’m backing Palace at 13/10 with Betfred and Mateta anytime at 13/8 with BetVictor. If West Ham’s defence doesn’t tighten up, this could be another grim afternoon for the Hammers.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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