Portsmouth host Derby County in a Championship clash that could have crucial implications at both ends of the table.
With Derby chasing the play-off places and Portsmouth fighting to pull clear of the drop zone, this meeting at Fratton Park on Monday promises a fascinating contest between two sides with contrasting styles and fortunes. Kick-off is scheduled for 8pm.
Best Bets & Predictions
Based on Derby’s sharper attack and Portsmouth’s struggles in front of goal, here are our top betting recommendations for this match. We’re particularly confident in Derby County on the Draw No Bet market, given their superior goalscoring and head-to-head record.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derby County Draw No Bet | 13/8 @ Bet365 (38.1%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Derby have outscored Portsmouth by 18 goals this season and remain unbeaten in the last six meetings. Draw No Bet adds insurance against another draw-heavy encounter. |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 4/6 @ Bet365 (60.0%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Four of the last six head-to-heads have ended with two goals or fewer. Derby are efficient rather than prolific away, while Portsmouth have struggled for cutting edge all season. |
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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Season Form & Standings
Derby County are chasing the play-off pack, sitting seventh with 54 points from 37 games. Portsmouth, meanwhile, find themselves in a relegation scrap, 19th on 40 points with a negative goal difference. Both sides have similar defensive records, but Derby’s attack is far more potent.
| Team | Pos | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby County | 7 | 37 | 15 | 9 | 13 | 54 | 48 | +6 | 54 |
| Portsmouth | 19 | 36 | 10 | 10 | 15 | 44 | 47 | -11 | 40 |
Potential Match-Winners
- Patrick Agyemang (Derby County): 10 goals, 3 assists, and a remarkable 25 big chance assists this term. His 39.1% shot accuracy and high chance creation make him Derby’s most creative outlet, even if his pass accuracy is a touch below par for his role.
- Carlton Morris (Derby County): Also on 10 goals, Morris is Derby’s finisher but less involved in build-up play. His shot and pass accuracy aren’t as strong as Agyemang’s, but his knack for finding space in the box marks him as a threat.
- Rhian Brewster (Derby County): Six goals, 15 big chance assists, and an outstanding 58% success rate on take-ons. Brewster is Derby’s most effective dribbler and could unlock Portsmouth’s defence with a moment of individual brilliance.
Portsmouth, by contrast, have struggled to find a consistent scorer or creator, with their leading players some way behind Derby’s attacking trio in output and influence.
Head-to-Head: Last 6 Meetings
Derby County have the edge in recent encounters, unbeaten in the last six with one win and five draws. Portsmouth have failed to win any of the last seven.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 20/12/25 | Derby County 1-1 Portsmouth | Championship |
| 12/04/25 | Portsmouth 2-2 Derby County | Championship |
| 13/12/24 | Derby County 4-0 Portsmouth | Championship |
| 02/04/24 | Portsmouth 2-2 Derby County | Championship |
| 16/09/23 | Derby County 1-1 Portsmouth | Championship |
| 29/04/23 | Derby County 1-1 Portsmouth | Championship |
Final Thoughts
Portsmouth’s improved possession statistics have not translated into goals, while Derby County arrive with a more clinical edge and unbeaten record in recent meetings. Can Pompey break the cycle and grab a much-needed win, or will Derby’s attacking trio decide it again? For value, Derby County Draw No Bet at 13/8 (38.1%) with Bet365 stands out as the smart play this weekend.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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