Over the course of the 2025-26 Premier League season, we will be presenting teams’ detailed Expected Goals performances.
Football games are won on goals scored and conceded, of course. But xG can be a useful tool to show how matches go in terms of dominance and attacking production. With proper context, you could go as far as to say it shows who deserves to win matches.
Over time, there is a tendency to adjust to the expected tallies in terms of goals. It’s not to say, however, that clinical finishing and a little bit of luck can make a player or a team overperform for a season or two.
Top-quality footballers or long-shot/free-kick specialists can maintain an overperformance for many years. But overall, on average, it’s not really sustainable.
Considering that scoring goals is a difficult task, you will find out that is more common for teams to underperform than to overperform their xG. And it’s easier to overperform when you don’t produce as much as xG than it is when you do.
Which teams have been the biggest over/underperformers relative to their Expected Goals tally?
Overperformers
Tottenham
- Expected Goals: 28.17
- Goals: 37
- Difference: +8.83
No surprises here. Since the start of the season Tottenham seem to have consistently got lucky rresults in a non-sustainable way. Lo and behold, they find themselves 16th in the Premier League after 27 games. That’s a lot more accuract than when they were around third back in September.
Despite falling off a cliff in terms of performances and results, Tottenham are still scoring more goals than they should. A lot more.
Spurs have produced the fourth-lowest xG value in the Premier League with 28.17. But they’ve scored 37 from their efforts, an overperformance of +8.83.
Thomas Frank’s men have produced the fifth fewest xG (30.6) in the Premier League, but scored the joint-eighth most (35). An overperformance of +4.4.
Given that Tottenham’s biggest attacking threats are actually their centre-backs who score with headers (usually ‘low-percentage’ shots), it makes sense that they are overperforming.
Top scorers:
- Richarlison – 7 goals from 5.1 xG
- Cristian Romero – 4 goals from 1.25 xG
- Micky van de Ven – 4 goals from 2.5 xG
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Arsenal
- Expected Goals: 48.42
- Goals: 56
- Difference: +7.58
Arsenal are the Premier League leaders and they deserve to be there. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t distance between their xG and goals scored.
The Gunners are massively overperforming against their xG, by +7.58. That’s not a slight, though. The Gunners sit second in the table for xG and they’re the joint-top scorers. They’ve been blessed with good finishers this season and make the most of their chances.
Like Tottenham, set-piece goals will contribute to the disparity. And Arsenal are great at those, converting low-xG chances. Then there are the excellent strikes from the likes of Martin Zubimendi, granting moments of magic.
Top scorers:
- Viktor Gyokeres – 10 goals from 8.32 xG
- Eberechi Eze – 6 goals from 3.15 xG
- Bukayo Saka – 5 goals from 6.71 xG
- Leandro Trossard – 5 goals from 4.65 xG
- Martin Odegaard – 5 goals from 2.57 xG
Man City
- Expected Goals: 49.11
- Goals: 56
- Difference: +6.89
No team has scored more Premier League goals than Manchester City’s 56 this season. In terms of xG, however, numbers say it ‘should’ be 49.11.
The top-end quality helps them a lot in this regard. Erling Haaland is on a bit of a poor run of form at the moment. And yet, he’s still overperforming his xG tally for the season.
It goes to show the insane run of form he had early on. Then, he had scored four more goals than what his xG suggested, now this number has dropped to 1.4.
Top scorers:
- Erling Haaland – 22 goals from 20.6 xG
- Phil Foden – 7 goals from 5.42 xG
- Tijjani Reijnders – 5 goals from 3.96 xG
Underperformers
Crystal Palace
- Expected Goals: 42.92
- Goals: 29
- Difference: -13.92
Crystal Palace have struggled this season. From the highs of winning the FA Cup to the lows of the current season — and everything going on off the pitch. And this appears to be the reason.
Oliver Glasner’s men have scored an incredible 13.92 fewer goals than expected — almost as much the closest two teams combined. Spoiler alert: Jean-Philippe Mateta plays a big part in this underperformance.
The Eagles have converted just over 32.88% of their big chances so far this season. That’s the fourth-worst rate in the league.
It’s actually a testament of the system, which has provided forwards with good opportunities that they simply don’t convert. Palace rank seventh in big chances per game, behind only Man City, Chelsea, Brentford, Arsenal, Man Utd and Liverpool.
They signed Jorgen Strand Larsen initially to replace Mateta, but AC Milan pulled the plug on a deal to get the Frenchman and he stays at Selhurst Park. Now they have two xG-underperforming strikers in the squad.
Top scorers:
- Jean-Philippe Mateta – 8 goals from 11.97 xG
- Ismaila Sarr – 4 goals from 6.7 xG
- Daniel Munoz – 3 goals from 1.93 xG
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Wolves
- Expected Goals: 25.39
- Goals: 18
- Difference: -7.39
Wolverhampton Wanderers’ season may already be lost. And it’s very easy to see why. The basement club are the lowest scorers in the Premier League this season, scoring just 18 goals. That’s seven fewer than any other team.
There has been a bit of bad luck, with a -7.39 difference between their xG and goal total. Prior to his departure, Jorgen Strand Larsen scored just one league goal from 3.05 xG. Jhon Arias has also scored one goal from 3.25 xG. Even Tolu Arokodare, who is joint-top scorer on two goals, as underperformed his xG by -2.04.
But there is also the fact that Wolves are still the third-worst team for xG in the league. Only Burnley and Sunderland have produced a lower xG total than Wolves’ 25.39.
Top scorers:
- Tolu Arokodare – 2 goals from 4.04 xG
- Hwang Hee-chan – 2 goals from 2.11 xG
- Ladislav Krejci – 2 goals from 1.96 xG
- Santiago Bueno – 2 goals from 1.64 xG
- Mateus Mane – 2 goals from 1.25 xG
Nottingham Forest
- Expected Goals: 31.74
- Goals: 25
- Difference: -6.74
Another team suffering a massive drop off from last season. Nottingham Forest are in the Europa League thanks to their Premier League finish in 2024-25. But this season they’re battling relegation. And they’re on their third permanent manager.
But no manager has managed to solve the xG problem yet. Forest rank sixth-worst in the Premier League for xG, with two of the five teams worse off being in the relegation zone.
Forest are also the second-lowest scorers in the league. Only Wolves have scored fewer than Forest’s 25 Premier League goals this season. Igor Jesus is the worst culprit among Forest’s squad, underperforming his xG by 2.31.
Top scorers:
- Morgan Gibbs-White – 6 goals from 6.86 xG
- Callum Hudson-Odoi – 3 goals fom 2.67 xG
- Igor Jesus – 2 goals from 4.31 xG
- Chris Wood – 2 goals from 2.77 xG
- Nicolo Savona – 2 goals from 1.34 xG
- Ibrahim Sangare – 2 goals from 1.06 xG
Full table
| Team | Expected Goals | Goals | Differential |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham | 28.17 | 37 | +8.83 |
| Arsenal | 48.42 | 56 | +7.58 |
| Man City | 49.11 | 56 | +6.89 |
| Burnley | 22.72 | 29 | +6.28 |
| Fulham | 32.91 | 38 | +5.09 |
| Aston Villa | 33.47 | 38 | +4.53 |
| Sunderland | 24.69 | 28 | +3.31 |
| Man Utd | 46.73 | 48 | +1.27 |
| Bournemouth | 41.98 | 43 | +1.02 |
| West Ham | 32.04 | 32 | -0.04 |
| Leeds | 38.79 | 37 | -1.79 |
| Liverpool | 44.15 | 42 | -2.15 |
| Everton | 31.49 | 29 | -2.49 |
| Newcastle | 40.52 | 38 | -2.52 |
| Brentford | 43.35 | 40 | -3.35 |
| Brighton | 39.96 | 36 | -3.96 |
| Chelsea | 52.3 | 48 | -4.3 |
| Nottingham Forest | 31.74 | 25 | -6.74 |
| Wolves | 25.39 | 18 | -7.39 |
| Crystal Palace | 42.92 | 29 | -13.92 |