Derby County welcome Leeds United to Pride Park, with the hosts searching for a statement result in front of their home crowd.
Kick-off is set for Sunday afternoon, and the fixture comes with a clear narrative: Leeds United have dominated this matchup in recent years, making Derby desperate to turn the tide. With both sides fielding refreshed squads, this encounter gives both sides the chance to advance in the FA Cup.
Best Bets & Predictions
Based on the recent head-to-head record and available odds, we see clear value in siding with Leeds United to continue their dominance. Here are our top betting recommendations for this clash. We’re especially confident in a Leeds United win, given their seven victories in the last eleven meetings and strong recent away form at Pride Park.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds United to Win | 4/7 @ Bet365 (63.6%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Backing because Leeds have won 7 of the last 11 against Derby—including both meetings last season. |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 1/1 @ Bet365 (50.0%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Value here due to 5 of last 7 head-to-heads going over this line. |
Odds correct at the time of writing.
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Season Form & Standings
This is the first game for both of these sides in the FA Cup but the league form makes for interesting reading. Derby have been in indifferent form, winning just one of their last five Championship games and have lost two, leaving them in 13th position. The close nature of the Championship table means they are just six points off the playoffs.
Leeds have seen their good run of form end, losing to Newcastle in their last outing, ending a run of seven games without defeat. That leaves them in 16th position in the Premier League but they sit eight points clear of the relegation zone, with the bottom three being cut adrift.
Potential Match-Winners
With no advanced player performance data available for the current campaign, both managers may look to their new attacking signings for inspiration. For Derby, the likes of Patrick Agyemang and Benjamin Brereton Díaz will be tasked with breaking down a stubborn Leeds defence. Leeds United, meanwhile, can call on Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Wilfried Gnonto—both forwards capable of unlocking any Championship backline. With fresh faces in both squads, individual brilliance could tilt the balance.
Head-to-Head: Last 11 Meetings
Leeds United have asserted clear superiority in this fixture, winning seven of the last eleven encounters against Derby County. Their recent run includes back-to-back victories last season, with Derby failing to score in either game.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 29/12/24 | Derby County 0-1 Leeds United | Championship |
| 07/12/24 | Leeds United 2-0 Derby County | Championship |
| 19/07/20 | Derby County 1-3 Leeds United | Championship |
| 21/09/19 | Leeds United 1-1 Derby County | Championship |
| 15/05/19 | Leeds United 2-4 Derby County | Championship |
| 11/05/19 | Derby County 0-1 Leeds United | Championship |
| 11/01/19 | Leeds United 2-0 Derby County | Championship |
| 11/08/18 | Derby County 1-4 Leeds United | Championship |
| 21/02/18 | Derby County 2-2 Leeds United | Championship |
| 31/10/17 | Leeds United 1-2 Derby County | Championship |
| 13/01/17 | Leeds United 1-0 Derby County | Championship |
Conclusion: Will Derby County upset the odds?
Given Leeds United’s recent record in this fixture and their status as clear favourites, it’s difficult to look past the visitors. Derby County will need something special to break a run of seven defeats in the last eleven meetings. If you’re looking to back form and history, Leeds United to win at 4/7 @ Bet365 (63.6%) stands out as the smart play for this Championship showdown.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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