Aston Villa welcome Burnley to Villa Park on Sunday, with both sides desperate to spark their campaigns into life after sluggish starts.
The 2:00 PM kick-off pits a Villa team with a dominant head-to-head record against a Burnley side that has shipped goals at an alarming rate this season. With just one win each from their opening six Premier League fixtures, the stakes are high as both look to turn the tide in front of a passionate Midlands crowd.
Best Bets & Predictions
Based on recent form, defensive vulnerabilities, and historical dominance, here are our top betting recommendations for this fixture. We’re particularly confident in Aston Villa to win, given their superior ball control, home advantage, and Burnley’s leaky defence.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa to Win | 4/7 @ Bet365 (63.6%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Aston Villa are unbeaten in last 5 vs Burnley, whilst the Clarets have conceded an average of 2.2 goals this season. Aston Villa look to have turned things around after a rocky start to the campaign, picking up their first win of the season last weekend against Fulham. Burnley have won just once this season, against Sunderland, and have now gone four games without a win, losing three of those. That poor run has seen them drop into the bottom three and they face another tough trip to Villa Park this weekend. |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 10/11 @ Bet365 (52.4%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Burnley are conceding at a rate of over 2 per game and 6 of last 8 H2Hs saw 3+ goals. This should be another attacking matchup and Aston Villa will be keen on continuing their decent run in front of goal, which has seen them score four in their last two games. They’ve conceded an average of just a goal a game, whilst Burnley have scored a goal a game on average, setting this one up to beat the 2.5 goal line. |
Our approach: Start with Villa to win, add Over 2.5 Goals for an accumulator boost.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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Aston Villa vs Burnley match odds
How both teams go into Aston Villa vs Burnley
Aston Villa had a really rocky start to their Premier League campaign, failing to win any of their first five games. They seem to have turned things around a little though, going three games without a loss and picking up their first win of the season against Fulham last weekend. Goals were hard to come by for the Villains, with no goals in their first four games but they’ve now scored four in their last two and will looking to build on that.
Burnley have been the promoted side that have struggled most this season, picking up just four points from their opening six games. Their second match of the season saw them beat Sunderland but they’ve only picked up one point in the four games since then, although there have been tough games against Man Utd, Liverpool and Man City included in that run. A result is needed soon though to, at the very least, restore some confidence again.
Season Form & Standings
Here’s how both sides have fared in the 2025/26 Premier League season to date:
| Team | Pos | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 16 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 6 |
| Burnley | 18 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 |
Villa have collected just one victory but have proven tough to break down, while Burnley’s defensive frailties have seen them concede over twice per match on average.
Aston Villa team news
Tyrone Mings, Amadou Onana, Youri Tielemans and Ross Barkley are all absent for a couple of weeks, at least but there is more encouraging news for Jadon Sancho, who should be fit to make his return this weekend.
Burnley team news
Burnley will be missing Jordan Beyer and Zaki Amdouni through injury but Connor Roberts should be fit enough to play some part against Aston Villa.
Head-to-Head
Villa have been the dominant force in this fixture, winning four and losing just once in the last eight meetings. Burnley’s last win over Villa came at Turf Moor, and Villa have been especially strong away, but also boast a home win in the most recent encounter.
Last 8 Meetings
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 30/12/23 | Aston Villa 3-2 Burnley | Premier League |
| 27/08/23 | Burnley 1-3 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| 19/05/22 | Aston Villa 1-1 Burnley | Premier League |
| 07/05/22 | Burnley 1-3 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| 27/01/21 | Burnley 3-2 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| 17/12/20 | Aston Villa 0-0 Burnley | Premier League |
| 01/01/20 | Burnley 1-2 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| 28/09/19 | Aston Villa 2-2 Burnley | Premier League |
Conclusion: Will Villa Capitalise on Burnley’s Defensive Woes?
Aston Villa’s superior build-up play, home advantage and dominant head-to-head record all tip the scales in their favour as they host a Burnley side yet to solve their defensive issues. Expect Villa to control possession and create the better chances—backing Villa to win at 4/7 with Bet365 (63.6%) looks the most reliable play for this weekend’s encounter.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.