Nottingham Forest took a risk in sacking Nuno Espirito Santo and replacing him with Ange Postecoglou earlier this month.
Yes, the form under Espirito Santo had been poor, the Portuguese boss overseeing just three wins – one of which was against Postecoglou’s Tottenham last season – in his final 11 games at the City Ground helm.
Yet Forest have swung from one playing style to the other by swapping Espirito Santo for the Australian — the former a pragmatic boss, the latter preferring to play on the front foot and commit men forward. A breakdown in relations between Espirito Santo and the board contributed towards his eventual dismissal, but he’s arguably a safer pair of hands than Postecoglou.
In truth, Postecoglou has been unlucky not to have picked up a first win as Forest boss. The former Tottenham manager was dealt a tough opening hand as he took his side to Arsenal in his first game in charge. They were dominant in meetings with Burnley and Sunderland. Despite the lion’s share of possession across the two games, mustering a combined 39 shots, they scored just the once. Saturday’s loss to the Black Cats saw them return 64.6% possession, their highest since their Premier League return.
In this article, we’ll cover:
Luck not on Forest’s side
A point at Real Betis in the Europa League is not to be scoffed at, even if the manner of the draw was a blow. The Swansea Carabao Cup defeat, though, was a disaster. Forest threw away a two-goal lead to lose 3-2, conceding twice in second-half injury time to miss out on a place in the fourth round.
In his first home game as Forest boss, however, Postecoglu watched on as his side did everything but score. Indeed, the Midlands side mustered 22 shots and had four chances generate at least 0.25 Expected Goals. Chris Wood alone had two shots that generated 0.40 xG. On another day, Forest would have come away with all the spoils rather than leaving the City Ground pitch with nothing to show for their efforts.
Postecoglou summed up the 1-0 loss in two words: “Frustrating. Disappointing.”
With Omer Alderete’s winning goal coming from a contentious free-kick, one can appreciate the frustration.
It was a similar story in the 1-1 draw at Burnley, where Neco Williams put Forest ahead early on at Turf Moor. Forest were unable to manage a second despite outshooting the Clarets (17-12) and Wood again responsible for the chance with the highest xG generated (0.27). In a game of fine margins, Forest just aren’t getting the rub of the green.
History repeating itself for Ange?
Of course, it can’t continue like this… can it? Eventually Forest’s luck will come in. They are dominating the play and creating the chances to win games, yet it was a similar story with Tottenham, particularly last season.
The north London side were putting up solid underlying numbers, creating chances aplenty but lacking the finishing touch. Tottenham fans will tell you they’ve seen this film before and how it pans out. That being said, this is a Forest side that is still getting to grips with a completely different system.
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As alluded to, Espirito Santo would often set his Forest side up to dig in, sit deep and hit opponents on the counter. They ranked fifth for counter-attacking goals (7) in the Premier League last season, and top for set-piece goals (17) as teams when to great lengths to stop lightning-fast breaks. Having gone from being ruthless in front of goal as they waited for the chance to strike, Forest are now the team in control. There will be initial teething issues owing to an overhaul in approach.
Ange at risk?
On the balance of play, Forest have done enough to win games so far under Postecoglou, the 3-0 Arsenal loss aside.
“We are just not ruthless enough turning the dominance we have into wins,” Postecoglou said on Saturday and the profligacy means Forest have the worst conversion rate (2.3%) in the Premier League since he took over.
To further nail home the point, they’ve had the fourth most shots (44) in the division since he succeeded Nuno.
At the end of the day, however, football is a results business. Yes, Forest are adjusting to a change in manager whose styles varies wildly from his predecessor. The Early signs are positive and does suggest that the players have quickly bought into a more forward-thinking style of play.
However, unless these begin to translate into points on the board under one of the more tetchy chairman in the league, then Postecoglou’s spell at the City Ground may be short lived.