Chicago has run for 964 yards, more than any team in the NFL, and gets off the field on 25.8% of third downs. Our Patriots vs Bears prediction opens Week 7 on Thursday night.
Both teams are 4-2. The Chicago Bears are +31 on differential and the New England Patriots +23, and the gap between them is almost entirely what happens on first down.
Patriots vs Bears: our editor’s props
Two editor’s calls on this game, alongside the live Signal numbers.
AT 
Our props
An editorial call, not a Signal model output. 19+ (18+ in AB, MB and QC). Please play responsibly.
Patriots vs Bears: 2026 form so far
Two 4-2 teams, eight points of differential apart. The table sets each attack against what the opposite defence has actually allowed.
Patriots attack against the Bears defence
| Per game | Patriots offence | Bears allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 243.5 | 211.8 |
| Rushing yards | 130.7 | 90.5 |
| Yards per carry | 4.2 | 4.5 |
| Passer rating | 92.7 | 99.9 |
| Touchdowns | 2.7 | 2.3 |
| Third-down conversion | 40.5% | 25.8% |
| Red-zone conversion | 55.6% | 66.7% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 1.8 | 2.8 |
Bears attack against the Patriots defence
| Per game | Bears offence | Patriots allow |
|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 227.7 | 209.0 |
| Rushing yards | 160.7 | 91.8 |
| Yards per carry | 4.5 | 3.9 |
| Passer rating | 86.9 | 90.3 |
| Touchdowns | 3.0 | 2.0 |
| Third-down conversion | 45.5% | 37.1% |
| Red-zone conversion | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Sacks conceded / recorded | 2.5 | 2.3 |
Chicago’s 964 rushing yards lead the league. New England concedes 3.94 a carry, which is the sterner test that number has faced.
Patriots vs Bears quarterback matchup
Drake Maye has 11 touchdown passes to seven interceptions at 92.8. Caleb Williams has started three games, rates 101.5 and completed 30 of 36 last week.
| Team | Quarterback | Last game | Season to date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | Drake Maye | 18/32, 235 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, 110.8 rtg | 117/183, 1463 yds, 11 TD, 7 INT, 92.8 rtg (6 games) |
| Bears | Caleb Williams | 30/36, 305 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, 111.2 rtg | 66/91, 712 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT, 101.5 rtg (3 games) |
Patriots vs Bears injury report and team news
Chicago has run for 964 yards at 4.46 a carry, more than any team in the NFL.
Caleb Williams has started three games and threw for 305 yards in the most recent one.
New England placed Romeo Doubs on injured reserve on 19 October.
Third down decides this
Chicago’s defence allows a conversion on 25.8% of third downs. Only one defence in the league is better, and the Bears are 4-2 largely because of it.
New England moves the chains on 40.5% of its own, so something has to give. The Patriots have also conceded only 11 sacks; Chicago has given up 15.
Where Chicago is vulnerable is the same place it is strong. The Bears run it more than anyone and rate 86.9 through the air, so a deficit forces them into their weakest phase.
Players to watch
- Drake Maye (NE, QB): 1,463 passing yards and 11 scores from six games.
- Caleb Williams (CHI, QB): A 101.5 rating from three starts, 305 yards in the latest.
- Hunter Henry (NE, TE): A steady outlet for an attack moving the chains 40.5% of the time.
- Rome Odunze (CHI, WR): First read in a passing game rating 86.9.
How to watch Patriots vs Bears in Canada
Kickoff is 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, October 22 at Soldier Field in Chicago. TSN carries it nationally, because every primetime window in Canada sits with TSN, and RDS has the French-language broadcast. DAZN carries every game of the season in Canada through NFL Game Pass. Squawka may earn a commission if you subscribe through that link.
| Detail | Patriots vs Bears |
|---|---|
| Date | Thursday, October 22, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 8:15 PM ET / 7:15 PM CT / 5:15 PM PT |
| Venue | Soldier Field, Chicago, IL |
| TV | TSN (English) / RDS (French) |
| Live stream | DAZN (NFL Game Pass) |
| Week | Week 7, 2026 NFL season |
Patriots vs Bears prediction and score projection
Our Patriots vs Bears prediction is New England by 24-21. The Bears’ third-down defence keeps this close, but New England protects its quarterback better.
Signal’s live read on this game updates through the week.
Every Week 7 game, previewed
| Kickoff (ET) | Game | Our prediction | Preview |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8:15 PM | Patriots @ Bears | Patriots 24-21 | You are here |
| Sun 9:30 AM | Steelers @ Saints | Steelers 27-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Bengals @ Ravens | Ravens 27-23 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Browns @ Titans | Browns 20-16 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Colts @ Vikings | Vikings 27-13 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Dolphins @ Jets | Jets 20-16 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Giants @ Texans | Texans 23-17 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | 49ers @ Falcons | 49ers 30-20 | Read |
| Sun 1:00 PM | Buccaneers @ Panthers | Panthers 24-20 | Read |
| Sun 4:05 PM | Broncos @ Cardinals | Broncos 26-17 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Packers @ Lions | Lions 27-24 | Read |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Rams @ Raiders | Rams 27-23 | Read |
| Sun 8:20 PM | Chiefs @ Seahawks | Chiefs 24-23 | Read |
| Mon 8:15 PM | Cowboys @ Eagles | Eagles 23-20 | Read |
The rest of the week is covered across our NFL hub, and Signal rates every Week 7 game the same way. This one crosses the conferences, so the AFC Championship odds and the NFC Championship odds are both worth a look as the season develops.
Patriots vs Bears FAQ
New England, narrowly. Our Signal model has the Patriots as slight favourites and the live number sits in the Signal card on this page. Both teams are 4-2, though Chicago is +31 on differential to New England’s +23.
8:15 PM ET on Thursday, October 22, which is 7:15 PM CT and 5:15 PM PT, at Soldier Field.
TSN carries every primetime window nationally, with RDS on the French-language broadcast. DAZN carries every game of the season in Canada through NFL Game Pass.
Chicago, with 964 rushing yards at 4.46 a carry.
19+ (18+ in AB, MB and QC) | Please play responsibly | ConnexOntario: 1-866-531-2600 (ON) | Signal probabilities approximate at time of writing and subject to change