The group stage is done and the Round of 32 is under way. France and Spain still head the outright market after the most convincing group campaigns in the field, with England the clear third on bet365 and on both regulated US prediction-market venues. Argentina beat Jordan 3-1 in the first R32 tie earlier today; Portugal needed extra time to see off Colombia; Congo DR knocked out Uzbekistan; Algeria and Austria went the distance. The bracket is now set and the outright price compression has begun. Brazil meet Japan on June 29, Germany face Paraguay the same day, and the heavyweights begin to filter through the draw over the next five days. With the host nations all through — USA vs Bosnia & Herzegovina, Mexico vs Ecuador and Canada vs South Africa — the next ten days will set the shape of the rest of the market.
For US bettors there is a harder truth in the numbers. The three host nations are longshots. The United States, Mexico and Canada are staging the biggest World Cup in history, yet the market gives all three combined a shorter shout than France on their own. Home advantage counts for something at a World Cup; the prices say it does not count for much here. The World Cup 2026 hub has the full schedule and bracket, and our Polymarket predictions tracker follows where the money is moving day to day.
World Cup 2026 winner odds: the Squawka Signal model vs the market
The World Cup 2026 winner market has a clear top tier, but the prices don’t all agree, and neither do we. Squawka Signal sets our own model’s win probability for every remaining nation against the live Kalshi and Polymarket prices, so you can see at a glance where the market looks high, low, or about right. The tracker below updates after every match.
The headline disagreement is France. The market still rates them among the favorites, but our model has them well short of that price, because the draw is brutal: they share a half with Germany, the Netherlands, Brazil and England, and would likely have to beat two of them just to reach the final. Spain and Argentina, on the kinder side of the bracket, are where the model is most confident. Reputation sets the market; the route to the trophy sets our number. For the top-scorer market, see our World Cup 2026 Golden Boot odds.
World Cup 2026 Winner — Squawka Signal
1ArgentinaSquawka Signal predictionSquawka18.1%Market predictionMarket21.0%▬ FAIR
% = our model’s chance of beating that opponent in a one-off knockout tie. R32 is the confirmed tie; later rounds show the possible opponents still alive in that part of the bracket.
2SpainSquawka Signal predictionSquawka13.4%Market predictionMarket10.8%▬ FAIR
% = our model’s chance of beating that opponent in a one-off knockout tie. R32 is the confirmed tie; later rounds show the possible opponents still alive in that part of the bracket.
3EnglandSquawka Signal predictionSquawka11.7%Market predictionMarket10.1%▬ FAIR
% = our model’s chance of beating that opponent in a one-off knockout tie. R32 is the confirmed tie; later rounds show the possible opponents still alive in that part of the bracket.
4FranceSquawka Signal predictionSquawka10.1%Market predictionMarket23.6%▼ OVERPRICED
% = our model’s chance of beating that opponent in a one-off knockout tie. R32 is the confirmed tie; later rounds show the possible opponents still alive in that part of the bracket.
5NetherlandsSquawka Signal predictionSquawka5.7%Market predictionMarket5.4%▬ FAIR
% = our model’s chance of beating that opponent in a one-off knockout tie. R32 is the confirmed tie; later rounds show the possible opponents still alive in that part of the bracket.
6GermanySquawka Signal predictionSquawka5.6%Market predictionMarket3.7%▬ FAIR
% = our model’s chance of beating that opponent in a one-off knockout tie. R32 is the confirmed tie; later rounds show the possible opponents still alive in that part of the bracket.
7BrazilSquawka Signal predictionSquawka5.0%Market predictionMarket6.0%▬ FAIR
% = our model’s chance of beating that opponent in a one-off knockout tie. R32 is the confirmed tie; later rounds show the possible opponents still alive in that part of the bracket.
8PortugalSquawka Signal predictionSquawka3.8%Market predictionMarket6.2%▬ FAIR
% = our model’s chance of beating that opponent in a one-off knockout tie. R32 is the confirmed tie; later rounds show the possible opponents still alive in that part of the bracket.
9BelgiumSquawka Signal predictionSquawka3.2%Market predictionMarket1.2%▬ FAIR
% = our model’s chance of beating that opponent in a one-off knockout tie. R32 is the confirmed tie; later rounds show the possible opponents still alive in that part of the bracket.
10ColombiaSquawka Signal predictionSquawka3.0%Market predictionMarket2.6%▬ FAIR
% = our model’s chance of beating that opponent in a one-off knockout tie. R32 is the confirmed tie; later rounds show the possible opponents still alive in that part of the bracket.
11JapanSquawka Signal predictionSquawka2.1%Market predictionMarket1.0%▬ FAIR
% = our model’s chance of beating that opponent in a one-off knockout tie. R32 is the confirmed tie; later rounds show the possible opponents still alive in that part of the bracket.
12SwitzerlandSquawka Signal predictionSquawka2.1%Market predictionMarket0.9%▬ FAIR
% = our model’s chance of beating that opponent in a one-off knockout tie. R32 is the confirmed tie; later rounds show the possible opponents still alive in that part of the bracket.
13SenegalSquawka Signal predictionSquawka2.0%Market predictionMarket0.4%▬ FAIR
% = our model’s chance of beating that opponent in a one-off knockout tie. R32 is the confirmed tie; later rounds show the possible opponents still alive in that part of the bracket.
14USASquawka Signal predictionSquawka1.9%Market predictionMarket2.9%▬ FAIR
% = our model’s chance of beating that opponent in a one-off knockout tie. R32 is the confirmed tie; later rounds show the possible opponents still alive in that part of the bracket.
15MexicoSquawka Signal predictionSquawka1.5%Market predictionMarket2.2%▬ FAIR
% = our model’s chance of beating that opponent in a one-off knockout tie. R32 is the confirmed tie; later rounds show the possible opponents still alive in that part of the bracket.
16CanadaSquawka Signal predictionSquawka1.4%Market predictionMarket0.2%▬ FAIR
% = our model’s chance of beating that opponent in a one-off knockout tie. R32 is the confirmed tie; later rounds show the possible opponents still alive in that part of the bracket.
17EcuadorSquawka Signal predictionSquawka1.4%Market predictionMarket0.5%▬ FAIR
% = our model’s chance of beating that opponent in a one-off knockout tie. R32 is the confirmed tie; later rounds show the possible opponents still alive in that part of the bracket.
18MoroccoSquawka Signal predictionSquawka1.4%Market predictionMarket1.2%▬ FAIR
% = our model’s chance of beating that opponent in a one-off knockout tie. R32 is the confirmed tie; later rounds show the possible opponents still alive in that part of the bracket.
19Ivory CoastSquawka Signal predictionSquawka1.2%Market predictionMarket0.2%▬ FAIR
% = our model’s chance of beating that opponent in a one-off knockout tie. R32 is the confirmed tie; later rounds show the possible opponents still alive in that part of the bracket.
20NorwaySquawka Signal predictionSquawka1.0%Market predictionMarket1.9%▬ FAIR
% = our model’s chance of beating that opponent in a one-off knockout tie. R32 is the confirmed tie; later rounds show the possible opponents still alive in that part of the bracket.
21CroatiaSquawka Signal predictionSquawka0.9%Market predictionMarket0.3%▬ FAIR
% = our model’s chance of beating that opponent in a one-off knockout tie. R32 is the confirmed tie; later rounds show the possible opponents still alive in that part of the bracket.
22GhanaSquawka Signal predictionSquawka0.7%Market predictionMarket0.1%▬ FAIR
% = our model’s chance of beating that opponent in a one-off knockout tie. R32 is the confirmed tie; later rounds show the possible opponents still alive in that part of the bracket.
23AlgeriaSquawka Signal predictionSquawka0.7%Market predictionMarket0.1%▬ FAIR
% = our model’s chance of beating that opponent in a one-off knockout tie. R32 is the confirmed tie; later rounds show the possible opponents still alive in that part of the bracket.
24AustraliaSquawka Signal predictionSquawka0.6%Market predictionMarket0.1%▬ FAIR
% = our model’s chance of beating that opponent in a one-off knockout tie. R32 is the confirmed tie; later rounds show the possible opponents still alive in that part of the bracket.
25EgyptSquawka Signal predictionSquawka0.5%Market predictionMarket0.1%▬ FAIR
% = our model’s chance of beating that opponent in a one-off knockout tie. R32 is the confirmed tie; later rounds show the possible opponents still alive in that part of the bracket.
26SwedenSquawka Signal predictionSquawka0.4%Market predictionMarket0.1%▬ FAIR
% = our model’s chance of beating that opponent in a one-off knockout tie. R32 is the confirmed tie; later rounds show the possible opponents still alive in that part of the bracket.
27AustriaSquawka Signal predictionSquawka0.4%Market predictionMarket0.1%▬ FAIR
% = our model’s chance of beating that opponent in a one-off knockout tie. R32 is the confirmed tie; later rounds show the possible opponents still alive in that part of the bracket.
28ParaguaySquawka Signal predictionSquawka0.2%Market predictionMarket0.1%▬ FAIR
% = our model’s chance of beating that opponent in a one-off knockout tie. R32 is the confirmed tie; later rounds show the possible opponents still alive in that part of the bracket.
29DR CongoSquawka Signal predictionSquawka0.2%Market predictionMarket0.3%▬ FAIR
% = our model’s chance of beating that opponent in a one-off knockout tie. R32 is the confirmed tie; later rounds show the possible opponents still alive in that part of the bracket.
30BosniaSquawka Signal predictionSquawka0.1%Market predictionMarket0.3%▬ FAIR
% = our model’s chance of beating that opponent in a one-off knockout tie. R32 is the confirmed tie; later rounds show the possible opponents still alive in that part of the bracket.
31Cape VerdeSquawka Signal predictionSquawka0.0%Market predictionMarket0.1%▬ FAIR
% = our model’s chance of beating that opponent in a one-off knockout tie. R32 is the confirmed tie; later rounds show the possible opponents still alive in that part of the bracket.
Squawka Rating = our power rating for each nation; model win % = its title probability across 50,000 simulations of the remaining tournament, updated after every match. The verdict is our read on each price: Value = the market sits below our model, Overpriced = above it. For analysis and entertainment — not financial advice. 21+ where applicable; eligibility varies by US state. Read our Kalshi review and Polymarket review.
How the Squawka Signal model works
Squawka Signal is built on a power rating for every team, drawn from the quality of the chances they create and concede rather than results alone, and adjusted for the strength of the opponent so that beating a weak side counts for less than beating a strong one. Each rating is anchored to a sensible pre-tournament baseline, then moves with every match played.
To turn those ratings into a win probability, we play the rest of the tournament out 50,000 times along the real bracket, with the stronger team more likely to win each tie but upsets always in play. The share of those simulations a team wins is its probability. Because the model knows the actual draw, it captures what a flat ranking cannot: a strong side stuck in a loaded half is rated on its real path, not its reputation.
The verdict on each price follows from there. Where our number sits above the market we flag value, where it sits below we flag overpriced, and where the two broadly agree we call it fair. This is analysis, not a tip, and the market can be right where we are wrong. It is one honest, transparent read, updated after every result.
What the Squawka Signal model is saying
The market and our model broadly agree at the top, with one big exception. Argentina and Spain head the Squawka Signal numbers, both helped by the kinder side of the bracket, and the model is comfortable with the short prices on each.
France are the disagreement. The market still rates them among the favorites, but our model has them well below that price, because they have the toughest route of any contender: Sweden in the Round of 32, then in all likelihood Germany and the Netherlands before the semifinals. England and Brazil sit in the same loaded half, which is why all three rate lower with us than their reputations suggest. A flat ranking would have them higher; the draw does not.
That is the whole point of the Signal: where our probability sits above a team’s market price, the tracker flags value; where it sits below, overpriced. France is the clearest overlay on the board right now. Tap any nation to see the gap and the exact route behind it.
Who will win the World Cup 2026? Our verdict
The model’s pick is Argentina, with Spain the closest challenger, both rewarded for landing on the lighter side of the draw. France carry the most talent but the heaviest route, so we make them the market’s biggest overlay rather than the pick, and a host nation is well capable of a deep, memorable run. See how the knockouts are laid out in our World Cup 2026 bracket, and our World Cup 2026 final predictions for the showpiece.
Hosts in the market
All three host nations are through to the Round of 32, but the market still treats them as outsiders. That is the honest read on where they stand against the European and South American elite, even with the home crowds behind them.
United States
The US carry home advantage, a young core and the largest crowds they will ever play in front of. They are through to the Round of 32 and meet Bosnia & Herzegovina at Levi's Stadium on July 1. The market still has them as clear longshots, in the low single digits. A run to the quarter-finals would be a strong tournament; anything beyond that would be an upset the prices are not pricing.
Mexico
Mexico got the honour of the opener at the Estadio Azteca and rode the noise that came with it through the group stage. They face Ecuador in the Round of 32 at the same stadium on July 1. The market gives them roughly the same low-single-digit chance as the US: capable of a memorable knockout night, unlikely to go deep.
Canada
Canada are the longest price of the three co-hosts, around a 1% chance. They face South Africa in the Round of 32 at SoFi Stadium today. The progress under their recent cycle is real and the home support will help, but the market still sees R16 as the realistic ceiling.
Round of 32 ties worth watching
The Round of 32 runs June 28 to July 2. Brazil vs Japan at NRG Stadium on June 29 is the pick of the weekend, a meeting of an attack-first South American side with the tournament's sharpest tactical Asian outfit. Germany vs Paraguay the same day puts a recovering heavyweight against a side that has surprised the market. France vs Sweden on June 30 looks the tougher first knockout test among the co-favorites, with Netherlands vs Morocco the same day a rematch of the 2022 third-place pairing. The United States face Bosnia & Herzegovina at Levi's Stadium on July 1 to close out the round's first wave. Full coverage sits on the World Cup 2026 hub and the schedule.
Other World Cup 2026 outright markets
Beyond the outright winner, the World Cup carries a full set of outright markets worth a look:
- Outright winner (this page)
- Golden Boot (top goalscorer) — tracked on our predictions page
- Golden Ball (best player)
- Group winners (12 separate markets, one per group)
- Stage of elimination (group, R32, R16, QF, SF, runner-up, winner)
World Cup 2026 FAQs
When does the 2026 World Cup start?
The 2026 FIFA World Cup started on June 11, 2026 with hosts Mexico facing South Africa at the Estadio Azteca. The group stage is now complete, the Round of 32 is under way from June 28, and the final is on July 19, 2026 at MetLife Stadium.
Who is favorite to win the 2026 World Cup?
Spain and France share favoritism — level on Polymarket and Kalshi, with bet365 a fraction shorter on Spain. England are a clear third, and Brazil and Argentina head the chasing pack.
How does the 48-team World Cup format work?
The 2026 World Cup expands to 48 teams in 12 groups of four. The top two from each group plus the eight best third-placed teams advance to a 32-team knockout round, which then runs round of 32, round of 16, quarter-finals, semi-finals and final.
How many matches does the champion need to win?
Under the new 48-team format the winner plays eight matches: three in the group stage, then four knockout rounds through to the final, having entered the expanded round of 32.
Where can I watch the 2026 World Cup in the US?
US coverage runs across FOX and Telemundo, with streaming on their associated platforms. Check the World Cup 2026 hub for the latest broadcast and streaming details closer to kick-off.
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