Germany begin the knockout rounds as heavy favorites against a Paraguay side that survived on resilience rather than goals, with this World Cup 2026 round of 32 tie kicking off at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough on Monday, June 29 at 5:30 PM ET / 4:30 PM CT / 2:30 PM PT. Paraguay are without the suspended Miguel Almirón.
The contrast in routes here is stark. Germany won Group E with the most potent attack of any side in this matchup — 10 goals, 7.74 expected goals, 53 shots and 22 on target across three games — even allowing for a final-day stumble against Ecuador once top spot was already in hand. Paraguay came through the hard way, finishing third in Group D and squeezing in as the seventh-ranked of the best third-placed teams.
Paraguay’s numbers tell the story of a team built to frustrate: just two goals and 2.33 xG, only five shots on target, and a tournament-high seven yellow cards plus Almirón’s red against Türkiye. They kept their nerve to grind out the points they needed, but they have rarely threatened at the other end, and that is the tension Germany will look to exploit early.
bet365 price Germany at -300 to win, with the draw at +400 and Paraguay a distant +850. Germany sit high on the World Cup 2026 outright odds board, and the market expects them to control this tie from the front.
Germany vs Paraguay: Best Bets & Predictions
The slate leans into Germany’s attacking volume and Paraguay’s lack of a cutting edge, with a controlled home-favorite win to nil the most coherent read of the market.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Sportsbook | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germany to Win | -300 @ bet365 (75.0%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Germany scored 10 in the group stage; Paraguay managed two. The gulf in attacking quality is the cleanest edge on the board. |
| Deniz Undav to score anytime | -105 @ bet365 (51.2%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Undav already has two goals this tournament and is the shortest-priced German scorer against a defense that has leaked four. |
| Over 2.5 Goals | -138 @ bet365 (58.0%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Germany averaged better than three goals a game in the group stage. Their firepower alone can clear this even if Paraguay sit deep. |
| Both Teams to Score: No | -134 @ bet365 (57.3%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Paraguay scored twice in three games and created just one big chance all tournament. Backing them to blank is the percentage play. |
| Correct Score: Germany 3-0 | +800 @ bet365 (11.1%) | ⭐⭐ | Ties the win, the Over and the clean sheet into one line — the natural shape of a comfortable German night against a blunt attack. |
Our approach: anchor on Germany to win at -300, layer Deniz Undav anytime, and treat Germany 3-0 as the supporting scoreline that captures a win to nil with goals.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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World Cup Form & Route to the Round of 32
| Team | Group | Pos | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | E | 1st | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 6 |
| Paraguay | D | 3rd | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 4 |
Germany topped a group they led on goal difference throughout, the Ecuador defeat arriving only once qualification was settled. Paraguay finished third in Group D and advanced seventh among the best third-placed sides — a route that says everything about their tournament: hard to beat, rarely convincing. The Germany World Cup 2026 odds reflect a genuine contender, while the Paraguay World Cup 2026 odds mark them as outsiders happy to have made it this far.
Potential Match-Winners
- Deniz Undav (Germany): Scored twice against Côte d’Ivoire and has been Germany’s most reliable finisher, leading the line with a poacher’s instinct.
- Kai Havertz (Germany): Off the mark with a brace in the 7-1 rout of Curaçao, he gives Germany a second goal threat through the middle.
- Jamal Musiala (Germany): The creative heartbeat of the side, his close control and movement between the lines are exactly what unlocks a packed Paraguay block.
- Matías Galarza (Paraguay): Scored the winner against Türkiye and carries Paraguay’s main hope of a goal on the counter.
- Gabriel Ávalos (Paraguay): Leads a lone-striker line and will be tasked with holding the ball up to relieve pressure on a deep defense.
Recent Form
Germany: W W L
- Ecuador 2-1 Germany (L) — MetLife Stadium
- Germany 2-1 Côte d’Ivoire (W) — BMO Field; Undav with both goals
- Germany 7-1 Curaçao (W) — NRG Stadium; Havertz brace in a seven-goal opener
Two emphatic wins and a dead-rubber defeat. Germany scored 10 and spread the goals among seven different players, the mark of an attack with threats all over the pitch.
Paraguay: L W D
- Paraguay 0-0 Australia (D) — Levi’s Stadium
- Türkiye 0-1 Paraguay (W) — Levi’s Stadium; Galarza the match-winner
- United States 4-1 Paraguay (L) — SoFi Stadium; Mauricio with the consolation
A heavy opening defeat to the hosts, then back-to-back clean sheets to scrape through. Paraguay’s strength is organization without the ball; the concern is that they have managed only two goals and five shots on target all tournament.
Germany vs Paraguay Prediction
This is a clear mismatch on attacking quality. Germany have the firepower and the variety of scorers to break down a low block, and Paraguay — short of goals all tournament and now without the suspended Almirón — look unlikely to keep them out for 90 minutes. We’re going Germany to win at -300 with bet365, with Deniz Undav anytime and a 3-0 scoreline as the supporting plays. The bet365 review has the current terms. Kickoff is 5:30 PM ET at Gillette Stadium, Foxborough.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
Germany vs Paraguay kicks off at 5:30 PM ET / 4:30 PM CT / 2:30 PM PT on Monday, June 29, 2026 at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. It is a World Cup 2026 round of 32 tie.
bet365 price Germany at -300 to win, the draw at +400, and Paraguay at +850. Germany are clear favorites after winning Group E with 10 goals scored.
No. Almirón was sent off in Paraguay’s final group game against Türkiye and serves a suspension, a notable blow to a side that already creates few chances.
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