Argentina take on Egypt in the round of 16 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on Tuesday, July 7 at 12:00 PM ET / 11:00 AM CT / 9:00 AM PT, with a quarter-final place on offer and extra time and penalties waiting if the tie is level after 90 minutes.
Our Argentina vs Egypt prediction begins with a simple truth: Lionel Messi is in the form of the tournament, and Argentina have looked every inch the side their squad promises. Egypt, roared on by Mohamed Salah, have battled this far the hard way, but they arrive as heavy underdogs at this World Cup 2026.
bet365 make Argentina overwhelming favorites at -275, with Egypt out at +850 and the draw at +375. Our model reads it much the same way, giving Argentina a 75% edge — a rare case of the numbers and the eye test agreeing completely.
Market consensus: Kalshi traders price Argentina at 73%, the draw at 20%, and Egypt at 10%. Full breakdown below.
Argentina vs Egypt: Best Bets & Predictions
Argentina’s class should tell against a defensive Egypt, and the value is in how comfortably rather than whether they go through.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Sportsbook | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina to Win | -275 @ bet365 (73.3%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Messi is the tournament’s top scorer with seven, Argentina have won all four, and our model makes them 75%. As close to a lock as the round offers. |
| Lionel Messi to score anytime | -120 @ bet365 (54.5%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Seven goals off an xG of 3.82 and the shortest-priced scorer on the board — unavoidable right now. |
| Under 2.5 Goals | -125 @ bet365 (55.6%) | ⭐⭐ | Egypt will sit deep and make it awkward, and Argentina have been ruthless rather than rampant. A controlled 2-0 is the likeliest shape. |
| Both Teams to Score: No | -188 @ bet365 (65.3%) | ⭐⭐ | Egypt have been light on goals and now face Argentina’s back line. One end staying quiet is the percentage call. |
| Correct Score: Argentina 2-0 | +500 @ bet365 (16.7%) | ⭐⭐ | The bookmaker’s joint-shortest scoreline, and the natural margin of a comfortable Argentina win. |
Our approach: anchor with Argentina to win, add Messi anytime, and lean on the Under and a 2-0 scoreline for the shape.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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Win Probability & Tournament Outlook
The match-level read on Kalshi points firmly toward Argentina. Traders are pricing Argentina at 73% to win, the draw at 20%, and Egypt at 10%.
Here is how Kalshi’s stage-of-elimination market prices each side’s tournament arc:
| Team | Group exit | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | Runner-up | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 1% | 1% | 13% | 21% | 27% | 25% | 19% |
| Egypt | 3% | 1% | 85% | 10% | 7% | 5% | 1% |
Kalshi is the prediction-market platform available to US traders in all 50 states. Prices move with money, not a bookmaker’s margin, so the implied probabilities above read as a live market consensus.
If Kalshi isn’t your choice, we also rate Polymarket and ProphetX — or compare the full lineup.
Probabilities derived from live Kalshi market prices (yes-side, mid/last). Markets move — not financial advice. 21+. T&Cs apply.
World Cup Form & Route to the Round of 16
Argentina have swept through: a 3-0 win over Algeria, 2-0 against Austria and 3-1 past Jordan in the group, then a 3-2 win over Cape Verde in the round of 32 that needed extra time to settle. Four wins from four, with Messi orchestrating throughout.
Egypt have taken the scenic route: draws with Belgium and Iran either side of a 3-1 win over New Zealand, then a penalty shootout victory over Australia after a 1-1 draw in the last 32. The Argentina World Cup 2026 odds and the Egypt World Cup 2026 odds underline the gulf the bookmakers see.
Argentina vs Egypt Predicted Lineups
Based on the XI each side started in their last match.
Argentina
4-4-2
Egypt
4-4-2- * Mohamed Abdelmonem — in for the absent Yasser Ibrahim
Potential Match-Winners
- Lionel Messi (Argentina): Seven goals off an xG of 3.82, the tournament’s Golden Boot leader and the man dragging Argentina toward the title.
- Lautaro Martinez (Argentina): A goal off an xG of 1.77, Argentina’s focal point through the middle and a constant outlet for Messi.
- Mohamed Salah (Egypt): A goal off an xG of 1.94, Egypt’s talisman and by some distance their most likely route to a goal.
- Emam Ashour (Egypt): Egypt’s leading scorer with two goals, the midfielder carrying much of their attacking threat.
Recent Form
Argentina: W W W W
- Jul 3, 2026: Argentina 3-2 Cape Verde (W, after extra time)
- Jun 27, 2026: Jordan 1-3 Argentina (W)
- Jun 22, 2026: Argentina 2-0 Austria (W)
- Jun 16, 2026: Argentina 3-0 Algeria (W)
Four wins from four, and only Cape Verde have taken them to extra time. Messi has been involved in almost everything good.
Egypt: D W D D
- Jul 3, 2026: Australia 1-1 Egypt (D, Egypt won on penalties)
- Jun 26, 2026: Egypt 1-1 Iran (D)
- Jun 21, 2026: New Zealand 1-3 Egypt (W)
- Jun 15, 2026: Belgium 1-1 Egypt (D)
Egypt have been hard to beat but light on goals, needing penalties to see off Australia. They will need Salah at his best to trouble Argentina.
Argentina
Argentina vs Egypt Prediction
There is little mystery here. Egypt will defend in numbers and pin their hopes on Salah, but Argentina have been the tournament’s outstanding side and Messi is unstoppable right now. We’re going Argentina to win at -275 with bet365, with Messi anytime and a 2-0 scoreline the supporting plays, and only a heroic Egyptian rearguard is keeping the door ajar. The bet365 review has current terms, and our Portugal vs Spain preview and the Squawka soccer predictions page cover more of the knockout slate. Kickoff is 12:00 PM ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
Argentina vs Egypt kicks off at 12:00 PM ET / 11:00 AM CT / 9:00 AM PT on Tuesday, July 7, 2026 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, in the World Cup round of 16.
As a knockout tie, if the score is level after 90 minutes the game goes to 30 minutes of extra time, and to a penalty shootout if still level.
bet365 price Argentina at -275 to win, the draw at +375, and Egypt at +850. Lionel Messi is the shortest-priced anytime scorer at -120.
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