The White Sox walked into Houston as the American League’s sixth seed and walked out two days later with a sweep. Their reward is Cleveland, a Guardians side that has not played since the regular season ended. ALDS Game 1 starts Saturday lunchtime, and Kalshi, the CFTC-regulated US prediction market, has the result and both run totals priced.
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Match markets — White Sox vs Guardians
The market is not buying the momentum story. Cleveland sit at 57%, Chicago at 41%, which is roughly what home field and a week’s rest are usually worth and makes no allowance for the way the White Sox dismantled Houston. Neither offence is expected to run away with it: Cleveland are 50% to clear 3.5 runs, Chicago 39%.
Match Markets — White Sox vs Guardians
Game Winner
- Cleveland57%
- Chicago WS41%
White Sox Runs
- Over 3.539%
- Over 4.527%
Guardians Runs
- Over 3.550%
- Over 4.536%
Claim offer →Probabilities are the live Kalshi yes-side bid, correct at 7:16am ET on October 2. Markets move; not financial advice. 18+. Full Kalshi review.
Chicago took the Wild Card Series 2-0, winning 6-3 and then 7-3, and arrive as the lowest seed left in the bracket. Cleveland have named Parker Messick for Game 1 — an All-Star making his postseason debut, and a left-hander who posted a 2.81 ERA across four starts against these opponents during the regular season. Chicago had not settled on a starter as of Thursday, with manager Will Venable saying the call was still open and Davis Martin among the candidates. For a market this close to its priors, that announcement is the obvious thing to watch.
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