Milwaukee finished as the National League’s top seed and have the Cy Young favourite ready for Game 1. San Diego got here by shutting the Cubs out and then holding them to one. The NLDS opener closes Saturday night’s schedule, and Kalshi, the CFTC-regulated US prediction market, has made the Brewers the firmest favourite of the round.
If you are new to prediction markets, signing up through our link gets you the Trade $25, Get $25 Bonus. You will see “SQUAWKA sent you $25 on Kalshi” and it applies automatically, with no code to enter. First pitch is 8:30pm ET on Saturday on FS1, Fox Deportes and Fox One.
Match markets — Padres vs Brewers
Milwaukee sit at 65%, San Diego at 34% — the shortest price any home side carries into Game 1. The run totals are where the gap really shows: the Brewers are 55% to clear 3.5 runs, the Padres only 33%, and at 4.5 it is 40% against 22%. The market is not expecting San Diego to score much, which is a notable read on a side that has just conceded one run in two games.
Match Markets — Padres vs Brewers
Game Winner
- Milwaukee65%
- San Diego34%
Padres Runs
- Over 3.533%
- Over 4.522%
Brewers Runs
- Over 3.555%
- Over 4.540%
Claim offer →Probabilities are the live Kalshi yes-side bid, correct at 7:16am ET on October 2. Markets move; not financial advice. 18+. Full Kalshi review.
San Diego swept the Wild Card Series 2-0, winning 8-0 and 4-1. Milwaukee have confirmed Jacob Misiorowski for Game 1, the favourite for the National League Cy Young and the single biggest reason these numbers sit where they do. The Padres had not named their Game 1 starter. If San Diego’s pitching holds up the way it did against the Cubs, this is the price on the board with the most room to move.
How to claim the Kalshi welcome bonus
- Sign up at Kalshi via our link — the SQUAWKA bonus applies automatically, no code to type.
- Make a qualifying $25 trade.
- Your $25 bonus unlocks. Our Kalshi referral code guide has the full terms.
More MLB postseason markets
More on prediction markets
- What is Kalshi? Sports prediction markets explained
- Kalshi vs Polymarket: which prediction market is better?
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.