Our Squawka Signal model is live for the NFC Championship — a data-led probability for every NFC team to reach Super Bowl LXI, set against the live prediction market. It leans on five seasons of team strength and each side’s projected quarterback, and it sharpens as games are played. Below, every team’s model probability sits next to the market price, with a value read on each.
NFC Championship — Squawka Signal
1
Seattle SeahawksSquawka22.1%Polymarket13%▲ ValueKalshi12%▲ Value
2
Los Angeles RamsSquawka20.3%Polymarket24%▼ Slight layKalshi22%▬ Fair
3
Philadelphia EaglesSquawka16.0%Polymarket9%▲ ValueKalshi9%▲ Value
4
Detroit LionsSquawka14.5%Polymarket9%▲ ValueKalshi8%▲ Value
5
Green Bay PackersSquawka6.6%Polymarket7%▬ FairKalshi7%▬ Fair
6
San Francisco 49ersSquawka6.5%Polymarket8%▬ FairKalshi8%▬ Fair
7
Chicago BearsSquawka3.6%Polymarket6%▬ FairKalshi7%▼ Slight lay
8
Minnesota VikingsSquawka2.5%Polymarket4%▬ FairKalshi3%▬ Fair
9
Tampa Bay BuccaneersSquawka2.2%Polymarket3%▬ FairKalshi3%▬ Fair
10
Dallas CowboysSquawka1.6%Polymarket7%▼ Slight layKalshi8%▼ Slight lay
11
Atlanta FalconsSquawka1.4%Polymarket2%▬ FairKalshi1%▬ Fair
12
New Orleans SaintsSquawka1.3%Polymarket1%▬ FairKalshi1%▬ Fair
13
New York GiantsSquawka0.6%Polymarket2%▬ FairKalshi2%▬ Fair
14
Washington CommandersSquawka0.6%Polymarket2%▬ FairKalshi2%▬ Fair
15
Carolina PanthersSquawka0.2%Polymarket3%▬ FairKalshi1%▬ Fair
16
Arizona CardinalsSquawka0.0%Polymarket1%▬ FairKalshi0%▬ Fair
Squawka Rating = each team’s strength on a 0–100 scale. Model % = NFC Championship probability across tens of thousands of season simulations, updated as games are played. The verdict is our read on each price: Value = the market sits below our model, Overpriced = above it. For analysis and entertainment — not financial advice. 21+ where applicable; eligibility varies by US state. Read our Polymarket review, Kalshi review and the Signal methodology.
What the Squawka Signal says
Squawka Signal makes the Seattle Seahawks its NFC Championship favourites at 22.1%, with the Los Angeles Rams the main threat on 20.3% and the Philadelphia Eagles next. These are the model’s numbers — a data-led read from tens of thousands of season simulations — and they move after every week of results.
Where the model splits from the market: it sees the most value in Seattle Seahawks, Philadelphia Eagles and Detroit Lions, rating them likelier than the market’s price, and reads Dallas Cowboys and Los Angeles Rams as overpriced — those disagreements are the point of reading Signal alongside the odds.
How the Squawka Signal NFL model works
Squawka Signal is a power-rating model. It starts from an Elo rating built on every NFL game since 2021 — a single number for each team’s strength — then applies a quarterback adjustment, the biggest single lever in projecting NFL results, so a team is rated on who is actually under center rather than last year’s roster.
From those ratings we simulate the rest of the season tens of thousands of times — every game, the playoff bracket and a neutral-site Super Bowl — and count how often each team lifts the trophy. Set against the live prediction-market price, the gap is the value read: where our probability sits above the market we flag value, below it overpriced. It refreshes as games are played. Full detail is in our Signal methodology.
NFL NFC Championship odds FAQ
Our Squawka Signal model rates every team from five seasons of results, adjusts for each side’s projected starting quarterback, then simulates the rest of the season tens of thousands of times. The figure is a model probability, not a sportsbook price.
The model refreshes as games are played — through the regular season and into the playoffs — so the numbers move with results, injuries and quarterback changes.
We compare our model’s probability with the live prediction-market price. Value means the market rates a team below our model; overpriced means it rates them above. It is a read, not a tip.
In the US, Kalshi and Polymarket both list NFL NFC Championship markets as event contracts. Availability varies by state; 21+ where applicable.
The model’s current order is in the table above — it updates as the season plays out, so the favourite can change with results.