Our Squawka Signal model is live for the AFC Championship — a data-led probability for every AFC team to reach Super Bowl LXI, set against the live prediction market. It leans on five seasons of team strength and each side’s projected quarterback, and it sharpens as games are played. Below, every team’s model probability sits next to the market price, with a value read on each.
AFC Championship — Squawka Signal
1
Buffalo BillsSquawka23.2%Polymarket16%▲ ValueKalshi14%▲ Value
2
Denver BroncosSquawka20.9%Polymarket8%▲ Strong valueKalshi8%▲ Strong value
3
Houston TexansSquawka12.7%Polymarket10%▲ ValueKalshi10%▬ Fair
4
New England PatriotsSquawka10.7%Polymarket10%▬ FairKalshi9%▬ Fair
5
Jacksonville JaguarsSquawka9.9%Polymarket6%▲ ValueKalshi6%▲ Value
6
Baltimore RavensSquawka8.6%Polymarket14%▼ Slight layKalshi12%▼ Slight lay
7
Los Angeles ChargersSquawka4.2%Polymarket11%▼ Slight layKalshi10%▼ Slight lay
8
Pittsburgh SteelersSquawka3.8%Polymarket2%▬ FairKalshi2%▬ Fair
9
Cincinnati BengalsSquawka2.8%Polymarket7%▼ Slight layKalshi8%▼ Slight lay
10
Kansas City ChiefsSquawka2.1%Polymarket10%▼ Slight layKalshi11%▼ Slight lay
11
Indianapolis ColtsSquawka0.8%Polymarket3%▬ FairKalshi2%▬ Fair
12
Miami DolphinsSquawka0.3%Polymarket1%▬ FairKalshi0%▬ Fair
13
Tennessee TitansSquawka0.0%Polymarket1%▬ FairKalshi1%▬ Fair
14
Cleveland BrownsSquawka0.0%Polymarket1%▬ FairKalshi0%▬ Fair
15
Las Vegas RaidersSquawka0.0%Polymarket1%▬ FairKalshi1%▬ Fair
16
New York JetsSquawka0.0%Polymarket1%▬ FairKalshi0%▬ Fair
Squawka Rating = each team’s strength on a 0–100 scale. Model % = AFC Championship probability across tens of thousands of season simulations, updated as games are played. The verdict is our read on each price: Value = the market sits below our model, Overpriced = above it. For analysis and entertainment — not financial advice. 21+ where applicable; eligibility varies by US state. Read our Polymarket review, Kalshi review and the Signal methodology.
What the Squawka Signal says
Squawka Signal makes the Buffalo Bills its AFC Championship favourites at 23.2%, with the Denver Broncos the main threat on 20.9% and the Houston Texans next. These are the model’s numbers — a data-led read from tens of thousands of season simulations — and they move after every week of results.
Where the model splits from the market: it sees the most value in Denver Broncos, Buffalo Bills and Jacksonville Jaguars, rating them likelier than the market’s price, and reads Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers and Baltimore Ravens as overpriced — those disagreements are the point of reading Signal alongside the odds.
How the Squawka Signal NFL model works
Squawka Signal is a power-rating model. It starts from an Elo rating built on every NFL game since 2021 — a single number for each team’s strength — then applies a quarterback adjustment, the biggest single lever in projecting NFL results, so a team is rated on who is actually under center rather than last year’s roster.
From those ratings we simulate the rest of the season tens of thousands of times — every game, the playoff bracket and a neutral-site Super Bowl — and count how often each team lifts the trophy. Set against the live prediction-market price, the gap is the value read: where our probability sits above the market we flag value, below it overpriced. It refreshes as games are played. Full detail is in our Signal methodology.
NFL AFC Championship odds FAQ
Our Squawka Signal model rates every team from five seasons of results, adjusts for each side’s projected starting quarterback, then simulates the rest of the season tens of thousands of times. The figure is a model probability, not a sportsbook price.
The model refreshes as games are played — through the regular season and into the playoffs — so the numbers move with results, injuries and quarterback changes.
We compare our model’s probability with the live prediction-market price. Value means the market rates a team below our model; overpriced means it rates them above. It is a read, not a tip.
In the US, Kalshi and Polymarket both list NFL AFC Championship markets as event contracts. Availability varies by state; 21+ where applicable.
The model’s current order is in the table above — it updates as the season plays out, so the favourite can change with results.