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Home » Outright markets » NFL AFC Championship Odds 2027: Model vs Market Predictions

NFL AFC Championship Odds 2027: Model vs Market Predictions

AFC Championship Odds
Squawka Signal · AFC Championship

NFL AFC Championship odds & Signal model

Signal makes Buffalo Bills the AFC Championship favorite at 30%. Every team below carries our model’s AFC Championship probability for every team, next to the live prediction-market price, so you can see where Signal and the money disagree.

Updated October 11, 2026 · refreshed daily

ModelMarketRead
Buffalo Bills
Model29.9%
Market19.9%Kalshi + Polymarket
Strong value
Kalshi & Polymarket prices
Kalshi20.1%Trade
Polymarket19.7%Trade
Jacksonville Jaguars
Model21.2%
Market11.3%Kalshi + Polymarket
Strong value
Kalshi & Polymarket prices
Kalshi12.1%Trade
Polymarket10.6%Trade
Kansas City Chiefs
Model13.3%
Market18.6%Kalshi + Polymarket
Priced in
Kalshi & Polymarket prices
Kalshi17.6%Trade
Polymarket19.7%Trade
Denver Broncos
Model10.0%
Market7.5%Kalshi + Polymarket
In line
Kalshi & Polymarket prices
Kalshi7.5%Trade
Polymarket7.4%Trade
New England Patriots
Model9.7%
Market6.7%Kalshi + Polymarket
In line
Kalshi & Polymarket prices
Kalshi6.5%Trade
Polymarket6.9%Trade
Baltimore Ravens
Model8.9%
Market15.5%Kalshi + Polymarket
Priced in
Kalshi & Polymarket prices
Kalshi15.6%Trade
Polymarket15.4%Trade
Cincinnati Bengals
Model4.0%
Market6.7%Kalshi + Polymarket
In line
Kalshi & Polymarket prices
Kalshi6.5%Trade
Polymarket6.9%Trade
Pittsburgh Steelers
Model1.7%
Market1.9%Kalshi + Polymarket
In line
Kalshi & Polymarket prices
Kalshi2.0%Trade
Polymarket1.9%Trade
Indianapolis Colts
Model0.5%
Market2.0%Kalshi + Polymarket
In line
Kalshi & Polymarket prices
Kalshi2.5%Trade
Polymarket1.5%Trade
Las Vegas Raiders
Model0.4%
Market1.9%Kalshi + Polymarket
In line
Kalshi & Polymarket prices
Kalshi1.5%Trade
Polymarket2.2%Trade
Houston Texans
Model0.3%
Market3.2%Kalshi + Polymarket
In line
Kalshi & Polymarket prices
Kalshi3.5%Trade
Polymarket2.9%Trade
Cleveland Browns
Model0.1%
Market2.2%Kalshi + Polymarket
In line
Kalshi & Polymarket prices
Kalshi2.5%Trade
Polymarket2.0%Trade
Los Angeles Chargers
Model0.0%
Market1.0%Kalshi + Polymarket
In line
Kalshi & Polymarket prices
Kalshi0.5%Trade
Polymarket1.5%Trade
New York Jets
Model0.0%
Market0.5%Kalshi + Polymarket
In line
Kalshi & Polymarket prices
Kalshi0.5%Trade
Polymarket0.5%Trade
Miami Dolphins
Model0.0%
Market0.5%Kalshi + Polymarket
In line
Kalshi & Polymarket prices
Kalshi0.5%Trade
Polymarket0.4%Trade
Tennessee Titans
Model0.0%
Market0.5%Kalshi + Polymarket
In line
Kalshi & Polymarket prices
Kalshi0.5%Trade
Polymarket0.5%Trade
Trade the AFC Championship market on Kalshi Trade on Polymarket

How to read it

Model is Squawka Signal’s probability for each team — a data-led read built from team strength and simulated to the end of the season. Market is what the prediction markets are paying. The Market column is a consensus of the live Kalshi and Polymarket prices, de-vigged; the per-book split is in each row’s drawer. Where only one book prices a market, we show it tagged and the other joins automatically once it trades.

FAQ

Who is favorite for the NFL AFC Championship? Buffalo Bills at 30% on Signal’s model. The full order, with the market’s view alongside, is in the table.

How often does this update? Every day. Signal re-simulates the season as results land, and the live Kalshi and Polymarket prices refresh alongside.

More from Squawka Signal

How Squawka Signal works · NFL AI Predictor · NFL on Squawka

21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER | Odds approximate at time of writing. Squawka Signal is a model, not betting advice.