Our Squawka Signal model is live for Super Bowl LXI — a data-led title probability for every NFL team, set against the live prediction market. Pre-season it leans on five seasons of team strength and each side’s projected quarterback, and it sharpens as games are played. Below, every team’s model probability sits next to the market price, with a value read on each — tap any team for its Squawka Rating and playoff odds.
NFL Super Bowl LXI — Squawka Signal
1
Buffalo BillsSquawka13.8%Polymarket8%▲ ValueKalshi7%▲ Value
2
Denver BroncosSquawka12.2%Polymarket5%▲ ValueKalshi4%▲ Value
3
Seattle SeahawksSquawka11.5%Polymarket7%▲ ValueKalshi7%▲ Value
4
Los Angeles RamsSquawka10.5%Polymarket14%▼ Slight layKalshi15%▼ Slight lay
5
Philadelphia EaglesSquawka7.3%Polymarket4%▬ FairKalshi4%▲ Value
6
Detroit LionsSquawka6.9%Polymarket4%▬ FairKalshi3%▲ Value
7
Houston TexansSquawka6.7%Polymarket5%▬ FairKalshi4%▬ Fair
8
New England PatriotsSquawka5.5%Polymarket3%▬ FairKalshi4%▬ Fair
9
Jacksonville JaguarsSquawka5.0%Polymarket3%▬ FairKalshi2%▬ Fair
10
Baltimore RavensSquawka4.1%Polymarket7%▬ FairKalshi6%▬ Fair
11
Green Bay PackersSquawka2.9%Polymarket3%▬ FairKalshi3%▬ Fair
12
San Francisco 49ersSquawka2.9%Polymarket4%▬ FairKalshi4%▬ Fair
13
Los Angeles ChargersSquawka2.0%Polymarket4%▬ FairKalshi4%▬ Fair
14
Pittsburgh SteelersSquawka1.5%Polymarket1%▬ FairKalshi1%▬ Fair
15
Chicago BearsSquawka1.5%Polymarket3%▬ FairKalshi3%▬ Fair
16
Cincinnati BengalsSquawka1.1%Polymarket4%▬ FairKalshi4%▼ Slight lay
Squawka Rating = each team’s strength on a 0–100 scale. Model % = Super Bowl probability across tens of thousands of season simulations, updated as games are played. The verdict is our read on each price: Value = the market sits below our model, Overpriced = above it. For analysis and entertainment — not financial advice. 21+ where applicable; eligibility varies by US state. Read our Polymarket review, Kalshi review and the Signal methodology.
What the Squawka Signal says
Squawka Signal makes the Buffalo Bills its Super Bowl LXI favourites at 13.8%, with the Buffalo Bills leading the AFC and the Seattle Seahawks the NFC. These are the model’s numbers — a data-led read from tens of thousands of season simulations, not a restatement of the market — and they move after every week of results.
Where the model splits from the market: it sees the most value in Denver Broncos, Buffalo Bills and Seattle Seahawks, rating them likelier than the market’s price, and reads Kansas City Chiefs, Dallas Cowboys and Los Angeles Rams as overpriced — those disagreements are the point of reading Signal alongside the odds.
How the Squawka Signal Super Bowl model works
Squawka Signal is a power-rating model. It starts from an Elo rating built on every NFL game since 2021 — a single number for each team’s strength — then applies a quarterback adjustment, the biggest single lever in projecting NFL results, so a team is rated on who is actually under center rather than last year’s roster.
From those ratings we simulate the rest of the season tens of thousands of times — every game, the playoff bracket and a neutral-site Super Bowl — and count how often each team lifts the trophy. Set against the live prediction-market price, the gap is the value read: where our probability sits above the market we flag value, below it overpriced. It refreshes as games are played.
NFL Super Bowl odds FAQ
Our Squawka Signal model rates every team from five seasons of results, adjusts for each side’s projected starting quarterback, then simulates the rest of the season tens of thousands of times to a Super Bowl winner. The figure is a model probability, not a sportsbook price.
The model refreshes as games are played — through the regular season and into the playoffs — so the numbers move with results, injuries and quarterback changes.
We compare our model’s probability with the live prediction-market price. Value means the market rates a team below our model; overpriced means it rates them above. It is a read, not a tip.
In the US, Kalshi and Polymarket both list NFL Super Bowl markets as event contracts. Availability varies by state; 21+ where applicable.
The model’s current order is in the table above — it updates as the season plays out, so the favourite can change with results.