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Home » Outright markets » NFL Super Bowl LXI Odds 2027: Model vs Market Predictions

NFL Super Bowl LXI Odds 2027: Model vs Market Predictions

NFL Super Bowl odds 2027
Squawka Signal · Super Bowl

NFL Super Bowl odds & Signal model

Signal makes Buffalo Bills the Super Bowl favorite at 18%. Every team below carries our model’s Super Bowl probability for every team, next to the live prediction-market price, so you can see where Signal and the money disagree.

Updated October 10, 2026 · refreshed daily

ModelMarketRead
Buffalo Bills
Model17.8%
Market10.7%Kalshi + Polymarket
Value
Kalshi & Polymarket prices
Kalshi10.3%Trade
Polymarket11.0%Trade
Minnesota Vikings
Model16.0%
Market3.1%Kalshi + Polymarket
Strong value
Kalshi & Polymarket prices
Kalshi3.4%Trade
Polymarket2.9%Trade
Jacksonville Jaguars
Model11.4%
Market6.1%Kalshi + Polymarket
Value
Kalshi & Polymarket prices
Kalshi6.4%Trade
Polymarket5.7%Trade
San Francisco 49ers
Model10.4%
Market9.8%Kalshi + Polymarket
In line
Kalshi & Polymarket prices
Kalshi10.3%Trade
Polymarket9.3%Trade
Seattle Seahawks
Model9.2%
Market8.2%Kalshi + Polymarket
In line
Kalshi & Polymarket prices
Kalshi8.3%Trade
Polymarket8.2%Trade
Kansas City Chiefs
Model6.3%
Market9.6%Kalshi + Polymarket
Priced in
Kalshi & Polymarket prices
Kalshi9.3%Trade
Polymarket9.8%Trade
Denver Broncos
Model4.9%
Market3.3%Kalshi + Polymarket
In line
Kalshi & Polymarket prices
Kalshi3.4%Trade
Polymarket3.2%Trade
Los Angeles Rams
Model4.9%
Market11.7%Kalshi + Polymarket
Priced in
Kalshi & Polymarket prices
Kalshi11.3%Trade
Polymarket12.0%Trade
New England Patriots
Model4.7%
Market2.7%Kalshi + Polymarket
In line
Kalshi & Polymarket prices
Kalshi2.5%Trade
Polymarket2.9%Trade
Baltimore Ravens
Model4.2%
Market6.8%Kalshi + Polymarket
In line
Kalshi & Polymarket prices
Kalshi6.4%Trade
Polymarket7.3%Trade
Chicago Bears
Model2.5%
Market5.1%Kalshi + Polymarket
In line
Kalshi & Polymarket prices
Kalshi5.4%Trade
Polymarket4.7%Trade
Philadelphia Eagles
Model2.0%
Market2.4%Kalshi + Polymarket
In line
Kalshi & Polymarket prices
Kalshi2.5%Trade
Polymarket2.2%Trade
Cincinnati Bengals
Model1.5%
Market3.5%Kalshi + Polymarket
In line
Kalshi & Polymarket prices
Kalshi3.4%Trade
Polymarket3.7%Trade
Detroit Lions
Model1.4%
Market2.6%Kalshi + Polymarket
In line
Kalshi & Polymarket prices
Kalshi2.5%Trade
Polymarket2.8%Trade
Atlanta Falcons
Model0.6%
Market1.4%Kalshi + Polymarket
In line
Kalshi & Polymarket prices
Kalshi1.5%Trade
Polymarket1.4%Trade
Pittsburgh Steelers
Model0.6%
Market0.6%Kalshi + Polymarket
In line
Kalshi & Polymarket prices
Kalshi0.5%Trade
Polymarket0.6%Trade
Trade the Super Bowl market on Kalshi Trade on Polymarket

How to read it

Model is Squawka Signal’s probability for each team — a data-led read built from team strength and simulated to the end of the season. Market is what the prediction markets are paying. The Market column is a consensus of the live Kalshi and Polymarket prices, de-vigged; the per-book split is in each row’s drawer. Where only one book prices a market, we show it tagged and the other joins automatically once it trades.

FAQ

Who is favorite for the NFL Super Bowl? Buffalo Bills at 18% on Signal’s model. The full order, with the market’s view alongside, is in the table.

How often does this update? Every day. Signal re-simulates the season as results land, and the live Kalshi and Polymarket prices refresh alongside.

More from Squawka Signal

How Squawka Signal works · NFL AI Predictor · NFL on Squawka

21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER | Odds approximate at time of writing. Squawka Signal is a model, not betting advice.