Outright Odds

Turkey odds to win Euro 2024: Probability, path to final, tactics, stats & full squad

By Mohamed Moallim

Published: 17:30, 27 March 2024 | Updated: 7:06, 29 March 2024

Turkey will have a point to prove when they make their sixth European Championship appearance this summer.

Under the ill-fated leadership of Şenol Güneş at Euro 2020, the Crescent-Stars finished bottom of Group A, registering one goal and conceding eight.

Statistically, the Turks were the worst-ranked team, and with a couple of surviving members heading into Germany, they are hoping to make amends.

Latest Turkey odds to win Euro 2024

Betting Market Odds Probability
Turkey to win Euro 2024 66/1 with Sky Bet 1.5%
Turkey to reach Euro 2024 semi-finals 8/1 with BetVictor 11.1%
Turkey to win Group F 9/2 with BetVictor 18.2%
Kerem Akturkoglu to win Golden Boot 80/1 with Bet365 1.2%

Turkey route to the Euro 2024 final in Berlin

Group stage fixtures

  • Georgia (18 June 2024, 5pm, Westfalenstadion)
  • Portugal (22 June 2024, 5pm, Westfalenstadion)
  • Czech Republic (26 June 2024, 8pm, Volksparkstadion)

Turkey potential knockout stage opponents

Should Turkey manage to win Group F, they will face off against a third-best-ranked team from either Group A, B, or C in the Round of 16. A first knockout phase triumph will set them up for a potential quarter-final match with the Netherlands. If they continue winning, they will likely face Spain or Germany in the semi-finals, with a potential final meeting with France in Berlin.

Turkey key players for this year’s European Championship

Turkey top Euros Golden Boot contender: Kerem Aktürkoglu

  • Key stat: No Turkish player has scored more Super Lig goals than Kerem Aktürkoglu (11).

If there’s one area of concern for Vincenzo Montella heading into the summer, it is a lack of goalscoring. They registered a paltry 14 during the qualifying phase, with only two players producing more than one strike. At least among that pair is someone who could rise to the occasion.

Kerem Aktürkoğlu, predominantly a winger, has amassed 11 goals for club side Galatasaray in the championship. That surpassed his previous best (10 – 2021/22) and last season’s tally (nine). The Kocaeli-born forward has won 28 caps at the international level, returning with five goals.

As mentioned, Turkey couldn’t buy a goal at the previous European Championship, so expectations aren’t as lofty as they were once.

Turkey primary playmaker: Orkun Kökçü

  • Key stat: Orkun Kökçü has created the most goals (seven) by a Turkish player across Europe’s top seven leagues.

There was no question about how instrumental Orkun Kökçü was to Feyenoord’s championship success last season. Having left the Dutch side for Benfica, he’s been in and out of Roger Schmidt’s starting lineup but still has amassed seven assists while finishing as Turkey’s leading goal-creator in their qualifying campaign. Barring any unforeseen circumstances, Kökçü should nestle into Montella’s midfield, where he’ll be tasked with pulling the strings.

Turkey card magnets & top tacklers: Hakan Çalhanoglu

  • Key stat: Only three central midfielders have committed more fouls in Serie A than Hakan Çalhanoglu (41).

Earlier this year, Alessandro Costacurta declared that Rodri performed better in the defensive midfield role than Inter Milan lynchpin Hakan Çalhanoğlu, which perhaps raised a few eyebrows. Simone Inzaghi’s side is as good as Italian champions, with their near unassailable lead heading into the business at the end of the season. One big reason behind Inter’s transformation has been Çalhanoğlu’s evolution.

Having previously been utilised as Inter’s attacking midfielder since joining via free agency in 2021, following a spell at city rivals Milan, the departure of Marcelo Brozović led to Inzaghi re-jigging his lineup. One notable change was moving Çalhanoğlu into a deep-lying playmaker role, which he recently spoke of enjoying despite the risks that come with it.

“I always had that hunger to help the team,” he commented after Inter’s 3-0 win over Napoli. You are just not used to seeing it.

“It is not easy to be a playmaker after being a trequartista. I analysed many situations; the staff helped me. I get a few more yellow cards, but that’s just part of the role.”

But Çalhanoğlu isn’t kidding with his yellow card remark. He’s already picked up five this campaign, two more than last season (although Çalhanoğlu finished with 11 in his debut year). Those five cautions have come from 41fouls committed.

Turkey rising star: Arda Güler

Real Madrid won the battle for Arda Güler’s signature last summer, reminiscent of Martin Odegaard’s courtship. The highly-rated Turkish forward, unfortunately, likened to a young Lionel Messi in some quarters, left boyhood club Fenerbahçe only to sustain multiple injuries. Güler, who turned 19 in February, had racked up nine goals and 12 assists through 51 appearances for the Turkish giants. He’s since debuted for Real before scoring in a 4-0 win over Celta Vigo in a one-minute cameo.

Turkey set-piece specialists

  • Penalties: Hakan Çalhanoğlu
  • Free kicks: Hakan Çalhanoğlu
  • Corners: Hakan Çalhanoğlu

Turkey tactical analysis and formation

Turkey team stats from qualifying (average per game):

  • Corners in qualifying: 5.4
  • Corners conceded: 4
  • Shots on target: 5.6
  • Shots on target conceded: 3.9
  • Offsides: 1.6

It’s been a brief run for Vincenzo Montella as Turkey boss. The former Roma, Milan and Sevilla boss has only presided over six international matches, with all but three being competitive outings. In terms of system, there’s been no tinkering with Montella sticking to a 4-2-3-1. What remains to be seen is what individuals fill out his preferred formation. As things stand, only defensive midfielder İsmail Yüksek forwards Kerem Aktürkoğlu and Barış Alper Yılmaz have featured in every game.

Turkey latest squad

Mert Günok Goalkeeper 35 Beşiktaş
Okan Kocuk Goalkeeper 28 Samsunspor
Uğurcan Çakır Goalkeeper 27 Trabzonspor
Muhammed Şengezer Goalkeeper 27 İstanbul Başakşehir
Zeki Çelik Defender 27 Roma
Merih Demiral Defender 26 Al-Ahli
Samet Akaydin Defender 30 Panathinaikos
Rıdvan Yılmaz Defender 22 Rangers
Ozan Kabak Defender 24 1899 Hoffenheim
Mert Müldür Defender 24 Fenerbahçe
Cenk Özkacar Defender 23 Valencia
Abdülkerim Bardakcı Defender 29 Galatasaray
Salih Özcan Midfielder 26 Borussia Dortmund
Orkun Kökçü Midfielder 23 Benfica
Hakan Çalhanoğlu Midfielder 30 Inter Milan
İsmail Yüksek Midfielder 25 Fenerbahçe
Arda Güler Midfielder 19 Real Madrid
Abdülkadir Ömür Midfielder 24 Hull City
Kaan Ayhan Midfielder 29 Galatasaray
Can Uzun Midfielder 18 Nürnberg
Kerem Aktürkoğlu Forward 25 Galatasaray
İrfan Kahveci Forward 28 Fenerbahçe
Enes Ünal Forward 26 Bournemouth
Yusuf Yazıcı Forward 27 Lille
Yunus Akgün Forward 23 Leicester City
Kenan Yıldız Forward 18 Juventus
Barış Alper Yılmaz Forward 23 Galatasaray
Oğuz Aydın Forward 23 Alanyaspor

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