Outright Odds

Turkey odds to win Euro 2024: Probability, path to final, tactics, stats and key players

By Mohamed Moallim

Published: 18:30, 22 June 2024

Turkey can still reach the Euro 2024 knockout stages after collecting one win from their opening two Group F matches. 

Under the ill-fated leadership of Şenol Güneş at Euro 2020, the Crescent-Stars finished bottom of Group A, registering one goal and conceding eight.

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Statistically, the Turks were the worst-ranked team, and with a couple of surviving members heading into Germany, they are hoping to make amends.

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Latest Turkey odds to win Euro 2024
Turkey to win Euro 2024
Turkey to win Group F
Kerem Akturkoglu to win Golden Boot

Turkey route to the Euro 2024 final in Berlin

Group stage fixtures

  • 3-1 vs Georgia (18 June 2024, 5pm, Westfalenstadion)
  • 0-3 vs Portugal (22 June 2024, 5pm, Westfalenstadion)
  • Czech Republic (26 June 2024, 8pm, Volksparkstadion)

Turkey potential knockout stage opponents

A second-placed finish would see Turkey take on the winner of Group D and World Cup runners-up France. The route to the final doesn’t get any easier after that, with the winner of Group E or the third-placed team in Group A/B/C/D.

Turkey key players for this year’s European Championship

Turkey top Euros Golden Boot contender: Kerem Aktürkoglu

  • Key stat: Kerem Aktürkoglu registered 18 goals for Galatasaray across all competitions in 2023/24.

If there’s one area of concern for Vincenzo Montella heading into the summer, it is a lack of goalscoring. They registered a paltry 14 during the qualifying phase, with only two players producing more than one strike. At least among that pair is someone who could rise to the occasion.

Kerem Aktürkoğlu, predominantly a winger, amassed 12 goals for club side Galatasaray in the Super Lig. That surpassed his previous best (10 – 2021/22) and last season’s tally (nine). The Kocaeli-born forward has won 28 caps at the international level, returning with five goals.

As mentioned, Turkey couldn’t buy a goal at the previous European Championship, so expectations aren’t as lofty as they were once.

Turkey primary playmaker: Orkun Kökçü

  • Key stat: Orkun Kökçü has created the most goals (8) by a Turkish player across Europe’s top seven leagues.

There was no question about how instrumental Orkun Kökçü was to Feyenoord’s championship success last season. Having left the Dutch side for Benfica, he’s been in and out of Roger Schmidt’s starting lineup but still amassed eight assists in league play — 10 overall — while finishing as Turkey’s leading goal-creator in their qualifying campaign. Barring any unforeseen circumstances, Kökçü should nestle into Montella’s midfield, where he’ll be tasked with pulling the strings.

Turkey card magnets & top tacklers: Hakan Çalhanoglu

  • Key stat: Hakan Çalhanoglu committed 43 fouls during the 2023/24 Serie A season.

Earlier this year, Alessandro Costacurta declared that Rodri performed better in the defensive midfield role than Inter Milan lynchpin Hakan Çalhanoğlu, which perhaps raised a few eyebrows. Simone Inzaghi’s side ran away with the title, finishing 19 points clear of nearest rivals AC Milan. One big reason behind Inter’s transformation has been Çalhanoğlu’s evolution.

Having previously been utilised as Inter’s attacking midfielder since joining via free agency in 2021, following a spell at city rivals AC Milan, the departure of Marcelo Brozović led to Inzaghi re-jigging his lineup. One notable change was moving Çalhanoğlu into a deep-lying playmaker role, which he recently spoke of enjoying despite the risks that come with it.

“I always had that hunger to help the team,” he commented after Inter’s 3-0 win over Napoli. You are just not used to seeing it.

“It is not easy to be a playmaker after being a trequartista. I analysed many situations; the staff helped me. I get a few more yellow cards, but that’s just part of the role.”

But Çalhanoğlu isn’t kidding with his yellow card remark. He picked up five last campaign, two more than the previous season (although Çalhanoğlu finished with 11 in his debut year). Those five cautions have come from 43 fouls committed.

Turkey rising star: Arda Güler

Real Madrid won the battle for Arda Güler’s signature last summer, reminiscent of Martin Odegaard’s courtship. The highly-rated Turkish forward, unfortunately, likened to a young Lionel Messi in some quarters, left boyhood club Fenerbahçe only to sustain multiple injuries. Güler, who turned 19 in February, had racked up nine goals and 12 assists through 51 appearances for the Turkish giants. He’s since debuted for Real and netted a highly impressive six goals in 373 La Liga minutes, spanning 10 appearances.

Turkey set-piece specialists

  • Penalties: Hakan Çalhanoğlu
  • Free kicks: Hakan Çalhanoğlu
  • Corners: Hakan Çalhanoğlu

Turkey tactical analysis and formation

Turkey team stats from qualifying (average per game):

  • Corners in qualifying: 5.4
  • Corners conceded: 4
  • Shots on target: 5.6
  • Shots on target conceded: 3.9
  • Offsides: 1.6

It’s been a brief run for Vincenzo Montella as Turkey boss. The former Roma, Milan and Sevilla boss has only presided over six international matches, with all but three being competitive outings. In terms of system, there’s been no tinkering with Montella sticking to a 4-2-3-1. What remains to be seen is what individuals fill out his preferred formation. As things stand, only defensive midfielder İsmail Yüksek forwards Kerem Aktürkoğlu and Barış Alper Yılmaz have featured in every game.

Turkey latest squad

Mert Günok Goalkeeper 35 Beşiktaş
Uğurcan Çakır Goalkeeper 28 Trabzonspor
Altay Bayındır Goalkeeper 26 Manchester United
Zeki Çelik Defender 27 Roma
Merih Demiral Defender 26 Al-Ahli
Ferdi Kadıoğlu Defender 24 Fenerbahçe
Cenk Özkacar Defender 23 Valencia
Abdülkerim Bardakcı Defender 29 Galatasaray
Samet Akaydin Defender 30 Panathinaikos
Ahmetcan Kaplan Defender 21 Ajax
Hakan Çalhanoğlu Midfielder 30 Inter Milan
Kaan Ayhan Midfielder 29 Galatasaray
Okay Yokuşlu Midfielder 30 West Bromwich Albion
Orkun Kökçü Midfielder 23 Benfica
Salih Özcan Midfielder 26 Borussia Dortmund
İsmail Yüksek Midfielder 25 Fenerbahçe
Berat Özdemir Midfielder 26 Trabzonspor
Cenk Tosun Forward 32 Beşiktaş
Yusuf Yazıcı Forward 27 Lille
İrfan Kahveci Forward 28 Fenerbahçe
Kerem Aktürkoğlu Forward 25 Galatasaray
Barış Alper Yılmaz Forward 24 Galatasaray
Yunus Akgün Forward 23 Leicester City
Arda Güler Forward 19 Real Madrid
Kenan Yıldız Forward 19 Juventus
Oğuz Aydın Forward 23 Alanyaspor
Semih Kılıçsoy Forward 18 Beşiktaş

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