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Slovenia odds to win Euro 2024: Probability, path to final, tactics, stats and full squad

By CJ Smith

Slovenia odds to win Euro 2024: Probability, path to final, tactics, stats and full squad

Published: 12:59, 19 April 2024 | Updated: 15:24, 22 April 2024

Slovenia will look to make their mark as they return to the European Championships for the first time since 2000 this summer. 

It’s been a long wait for Slovenia to return to a major tournament, with the 2010 World Cup in South Africa being their last appearance on the big stage, while it’s been 24 years since their sole European Championship campaign. Back then, they put in a credible performance with draws against Yugoslavia and Norway and only a narrow 2-1 defeat against Spain, but can they go one better and qualify for the knockout rounds of a major competition for the first time in their history?

Latest Slovenia odds to win Euro 2024

Betting Market Odds Probability
Slovenia to win Euro 2024 250/1 with Bet365 0.4%
Slovenia to reach Euro 2024 semi-finals 33/1 with BetVictor 2.9%
Slovenia to win Group C 16/1 with BoyleSports 5.9%
Benjamin Sesko to win Golden Boot 250/1 with Parimatch 0.4%

Slovenia route to the Euro 2024 final in Berlin

Group stage fixtures

  • Denmark (16 June 2024, 6pm, Stuttgart Arena)
  • Serbia (20 June 2024, 3pm, Arena Allianz Arena)
  • England (25 June 2024, 9pm, RheinEnergieStadion)

Slovenia’s potential knockout stage opponents

Slovenia have been handed a tough draw in the group stages alongside England, Denmark and Serbia. Should they do the improbable and top Group C, a third-place team will await in the round of 16. Finishing second would pit them against the Group A winner, which is most likely to be hosts Germany.

Of course, Slovenia’s most likely route out of the group is as one of the tournament’s best third-place teams. That could open up any number of possibilities, but it will guarantee them a fixture against a Group winner, probably Portugal or Belgium.

Slovenia key players for this year’s European Championship

Slovenia top Euros Golden Boot contender: Benjamin Sesko

  • Key stat: Only Rasmus Hojland (7) scored more goals than Benjamin Sesko (5) in Slovenia’s Euro 2024 qualifying group

As is the case for any nation of Slovenia’s stature, finding goals will be the key to their Euro 2024 chances. However, in Benjamin Sesko, they have a striker who is well-capable and out to prove a point.

Still only 20 years old, Sesko scored five goals during qualifying to help fire Slovenia here, giving him a tally of 11 strikes in just 29 caps so far. Already, he trails only six players in Slovenia’s all-time goalscoring charts.

And at club level, Sesko continues to attract attention after hitting nine goals in 26 Bundesliga appearances for RB Leipzig this season following his move from RB Salzburg, adding two more goals in both the Champions League and DFB-Pokal.

Could this be a breakout tournament for Sesko?

Slovenia primary playmaker: Adam Gnezda Cerin

  • Key stat: No Slovenian player registered more assists than Adam Gnezda Cerin (3) during Euro 2024 qualifying.

At club level with Panathinaikos, Adam Cerin definitely assumes a more defensive role. However, with the national team, he’s let loose a little more and plays a key role in creating chances for the likes of Sesko and Andraz Sporar; familiar with the latter at club level.

Cerin provided a joint-team-high three assists during qualifying — two for Sesko — while also adding a goal of his own. In fact, only Bruno Fernandes (37), Dusan Tadic (31), Xherdan Shaqiri (25) and Luka Modric (24) created more chances during the whole of qualifying than Cerin (23).

Many of those chances were created via set pieces, but given the height Slovenia have, that will be an important route to goal for them this summer.

Slovenia card magnets & top tacklers: Adam Gnezda Cerin

  • Key stat: Cerin committed more fouls (13) than any other Slovenia player during qualifying

While he is key in creating chances, Cerin doesn’t forget his defensive duties. He still performs a key role in shutting down opposition counter-attacks and breaking up play. Sometimes that can land him in trouble and, indeed, the 24-year-old committed a team-high 13 fouls during qualifying. However, he generally tends to walk the line between tactical fouling and poor sportsmanship very well.

Either way, he’s going to be key at both ends of the field for Slovenia.

Slovenia rising star: Mitja Ilenic

Let’s face it, Sesko could easily be mentioned here. He has the potential to be the greatest Slovenian footballer of all time and one of the most lethal strikers in Europe over the next decade.

But Slovenia have some more talent coming through right now, including Mitja Ilenic. The 19-year-old right-back enjoyed a solid start to life in MLS with NYCFC last season but this time around, he’s made the position his own, starting seven of their eight league games so far.

Ilenic has averaged more crosses into the penalty area per 90 minutes (0.89) than any other NYCFC player in MLS so far this season, while posting 1.07 interceptions and 2.14 clearances per 90, proving just why the club regard him as such an exciting two-way full-back.

Slovenia set-piece specialists

  • Penalties: Benjamin Sesko
  • Free kicks: Adam Gnezda Cerin
  • Corners: Adam Gnezda Cerin

Slovenia tactical analysis and formation

Slovenia team stats from qualifying (average per game):

  • Corners in qualifying: 3.8
  • Shots on target: 4.3
  • Shots on target conceded: 7.4
  • Offsides: 2.1


There may be some temptation for head coach Matjaz Kek to switch to five defenders for fixtures against the likes of England and Denmark. However, 4-4-2 served them very well during qualifying, with Andraz Sporar providing an excellent distraction for Sesko and Slovenia able to keep a disciplined and narrow defensive structure.

Nevertheless, Jan Oblak is the standout name on the teamsheet and the Atletico Madrid goalkeeper will likely need to bring his very best form into the tournament if Slovenia are to stand a chance of competing.

Slovenia’s latest squad

Jan Oblak Goalkeeper 31 Atletico Madrid
Vid Belec Goalkeeper 33 APOEL
Igor Vekic Goalkeeper 25 Vejle
Zan Karnicnik Defender 29 Celje
Miha Blazic Defender 30 Lech Poznan
Jaka Bijol Defender 25 Udinese
Erik Janza Defender 30 Gornik Zabrze
Petar Stojanovic Defender 28 Sampdoria
Vanja Drkusic Defender 24 Sochi
David Brekalo Defender 25 Orlando City
Jon Gorenc Stankovic Midfielder 28 Sturm Graz
Benjamin Verbic Midfielder 30 Panathinaikos
Sandi Lovric Midfielder 26 Udinese
Timi Max Elsnik Midfielder 25 Olimpija Ljubljana
Jasmin Kurtic Midfielder 35 Sudtirol
Tomi Horvat Midfielder 25 Sturm Graz
Adam Gnezda Cerin Midfielder 24 Panathinaikos
Andraz Sporar Forward 30 Panathinaikos
Benjamin Sesko Forward 20 RB Leipzig
Jan Mlakar Forward 25 Pisa
Zan Vipotnik Forward 22 Bordeaux
Zan Celar Forward 25 Lugano
Nino Zugelj Forward 23 Bodo/Glimt

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