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Slovenia odds to win Euro 2024: Probability, path to final, tactics, stats and star players

By CJ Smith

Published: 11:00, 1 July 2024

Slovenia have been one of the most surprising nations at Euro 2024 so far, with their positive performances leading them to three draws in their three group stage games which is enough to see them through to the next round.

It’s been a long wait for Slovenia to return to a major tournament, with the 2010 World Cup in South Africa being their last appearance on the big stage, while it’s been 24 years since their sole European Championship campaign. Back then, they put in a credible performance with draws against Yugoslavia and Norway and only a narrow 2-1 defeat against Spain.

Things started promising with a hard-fought 1-1 draw against Denmark in their opening fixture. Christian Eriksen gave Rode-Hvide a first-half lead but from that point on, Matjaz Kek’s men always looked the more likely team to score and they finally got an equaliser through a deflected Erik Janza strike.

Since then, Slovenia earned another two points to secure their route into the knock-out stages as one of the four best third-placed teams. They were desperately unlucky to draw 1-1 with Serbia thanks to a last-gasp equaliser from Luka Jovic, before an excellent defensive display saw them shut out England in their third and final group fixture.

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Latest Slovenia odds to win Euro 2024
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Slovenia to win Euro 2024

Slovenia route to the Euro 2024 final in Berlin

Group stage fixtures

  • Slovenia 1-1 Denmark
  • Serbia 1-1 Slovenia
  • England 0-0 Slovenia

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Slovenia’s potential knockout stage opponents

Slovenia had to wait a while to find out their opponents for the last 16, but it was eventually confirmed that they would face Portugal. Then, if Slovenia manage to get through that they’d face either France or Belgium in the quarter-finals. Germany or Spain await in the semi-final.

Slovenia key players for this year’s European Championship

Slovenia top Euros Golden Boot contender: Benjamin Sesko

  • Key stat: Benjamin Sesko has hit the target with two of his five shots at Euro 2024.

Slovenia haven’t been the highest of scorers at Euro 2024, netting two goals in their three games so far. They’ll be hoping Benjamin Sesko can open his account to inspire them to what would be a massive win over Portugal in the last 16.

Still only 20 years old, Sesko scored five goals during qualifying to help fire Slovenia here, giving him a tally of 11 strikes in just 33 caps so far. Already, he trails only six players in Slovenia’s all-time goalscoring charts.

And at club level, Sesko continues to attract attention after hitting 14 goals in 31 Bundesliga appearances for RB Leipzig last season following his move from Red Bull Salzburg, adding two more goals in both the Champions League and DFB-Pokal.

Slovenia primary playmaker: Andraz Sporar

  • Key stat: Andraz Sporar has created six chances at Euro 2024 so far, three more than any other Slovenia player.

At Euro 2024 so far, Andraz Sporar has been the focal point of Slovenia’s team. He’s taken more shots than any other player and has created more chances, with six so far. He also leads for big chances created on two, though he is yet to score or provide an assist.

However, he has been Slovenia’s danger man and their success runs through him. If they are to go far, they’ll rely on Sporar finally getting among the goals.

Slovenia card magnets & top tacklers: Adam Gnezda Cerin

  • Key stat: No player has committed more fouls at Euro 2024 than Adam Gnezda Cerin’s nine.

Timi Max Elsnik and Jaka Bijol lead the Slovenia squad for tackles at Euro 2024, both making nine so far. However, Adam Gnezda Cerin is just two behind, forming a strong midfield partnership alongside Elsnik. And Cerin is the one to do the dirty work.

Cerin is joint-top for most fouls at Euro 2024 so far, with nine in total. Surprisingly, with those nine fouls, Cerin is yet to be booked. Instead, Erik Janza has already received two yellow cards and is serving a suspension in the last 16.

Slovenia will need Cerin’s battling heart when they take on Portugal, and the midfield insists that while their first-ever appearance in the knockout stages of a major tournament is a big boost, they won’t be happy to end there.

“It is a new milestone for the Slovenian national team, for Slovenia in general,” Cerin told reporters.

“We have our goals and I think tomorrow’s match will be a beautiful evening for everyone to enjoy because these matches are something you dream about as a kid who starts playing football.

“We are not done. We will try to play tomorrow’s match at the highest possible level.”

Slovenia rising star: Adrian Zeljkovic

Let’s face it, Sesko could easily be mentioned here. He has the potential to be the greatest Slovenian footballer of all time and one of the most lethal strikers in Europe over the next decade.

Sesko is the youngest player in the squad, but there is another 21-year-old hoping to impress. Adrian Zeljkovic plies his trade with Spartak Trnava in Slovakia and made his senior debut for his nation in January. Sitting at the base of midfield, there is a lot of competition for Zeljkovic, but he could be one to keep an eye on.

Slovenia set-piece specialists

  • Penalties: Benjamin Sesko
  • Free kicks: Adam Gnezda Cerin
  • Corners: Adam Gnezda Cerin

Slovenia tactical analysis and formation

Slovenia team stats at Euro 2024 (average per game):

  • Corners: 3.0
  • Corners conceded: 8.0
  • Shots on target: 2.33
  • Shots on target conceded: 14.33
  • Offsides: 1.0

 

Matjaz Kek utilised a 4-4-2 during qualifying, but switched to a 4-3-3 in Slovenia’s two warm up games to shake things up. However, he has reverted to the 4-4-2 in all three games at Euro 2024 so far. In this formation, Sporar plays alongside Sesko, with Jan Mlakar and Petar Stojanovic providing the width.

As mentioned, the midfield pairing of Cerin and Elsnik is very tough to beat, and they protect the backline well. Jan Oblak remains the standout name on the team sheet and has been very busy between the sticks at Euro 2024 so far.

Slovenia’s final squad

PLAYER NAME POSITION AGE CLUB
Jan Oblak Goalkeeper 31 Atletico Madrid
Vid Belec Goalkeeper 34 APOEL
Igor Vekic Goalkeeper 26 Vejle
Zan Karnicnik Defender 29 Celje
Jure Balkovec Defender 29 Alanyaspor
Miha Blazic Defender 31 Lech Poznan
Jaka Bijol Defender 25 Udinese
Erik Janza Defender 30 Gornik Zabrze
Petar Stojanovic Defender 28 Sampdoria
Vanja Drkusic Defender 24 Sochi
David Brekalo Defender 25 Orlando City
Jon Gorenc Stankovic Midfielder 28 Sturm Graz
Benjamin Verbic Midfielder 30 Panathinaikos
Sandi Lovric Midfielder 26 Udinese
Timi Max Elsnik Midfielder 26 Olimpija Ljubljana
Jasmin Kurtic Midfielder 35 Sudtirol
Tomi Horvat Midfielder 25 Sturm Graz
Adam Gnezda Cerin Midfielder 24 Panathinaikos
Nino Zugelj Midfielder 24 Bodo/Glimt
Adrian Zeljkovic Midfielder 21 Spartak Trnava
Andraz Sporar Forward 30 Panathinaikos
Benjamin Sesko Forward 21 RB Leipzig
Jan Mlakar Forward 25 Pisa
Zan Vipotnik Forward 22 Bordeaux
Zan Celar Forward 25 Lugano
Josip Ilicic Forward 36 Maribor