Most Serie A goals 2024-25: Capocannoniere predictions and current standings
The 2024-25 Serie A season is racing toward its climax, with a host of clubs battling it out for the title.
Of course, most successful teams require a top-class striker, someone who can lead the line and convert pressure into goals. Last season, that man was Lautaro Martinez, whose 24 Serie A goals fired Inter comfortably to the title, finishing 19 points above closest rivals AC Milan. Martinez’s closest goalscoring rival was Juventus’ Dusan Vlahovic, but even he finished eight behind the Argentine.
Looking further back, from Zlatan Ibrahimovic to Andriy Shevchenko — not to mention Cristiano Ronaldo, Francesco Totti and Alessandro Del Piero — the list of Capocannoniere winners reads as a who’s who of legendary strikers.
Who are the favourites to take the prestigious award this year?
Serie A 2024-25 Capocannoniere predictions
Given how dominant he was in 2023-24, it was hard to look past Lautaro Martinez topping the goalscoring charts, especially as he went into the campaign having won the Copa America Golden Boot. But he’s currently on 12 goals. Victor Osimhen, who won the trophy in 2022-23, was expected to be his biggest competitor but has now joined Galatasaray on loan. Runner-up Dusan Vlahovic will want to compete, too, but he trails behind on nine goals.
It’s always worth keeping an eye on Romelu Lukaku given how effective he’s been in Italy over the years, with the Belgian currently on 12 goals. Martinez’s Inter teammate Marcus Thuram was high up in last season’s standings with 13 goals — a tally he has now bettered with 14. But it’s Atalanta’s Mateo Retegui running away with things at the moment as the only player to break the 20-goal mark.
Serie A top goalscorers: 2024-25 season | Italian top flight
SERIE A TOP GOALSCORERS |
|||||||
| Player | Goals | xG | Minutes Played | ||||
| Mateo Retegui | 23 | 16.34 | 1,978 | ||||
| Moise Kean | 17 | 15.86 | 2,440 | ||||
| Marcus Thuram | 14 | 9.98 | 2,208 | ||||
| Ademola Lookman | 13 | 9.49 | 1,960 | ||||
| Riccardo Orsolini | 12 | 7.74 | 1,522 | ||||
| Romelu Lukaku | 12 | 11.92 | 2,451 | ||||
| Lautaro Martinez | 12 | 13.1 | 2,487 | ||||
| Artem Dovbyk | 11 | 11.73 | 2,182 | ||||
| Valentin Castellanos | 10 | 12.69 | 1,944 | ||||
| Lorenzo Lucca | 10 | 7.2 | 2,238 | ||||
Players with the same number of goals are ranked by fewer minutes played. Stats correct as of 12:00, 24/04/25
Mateo Retegui’s potentially record-breaking season
Retegui leads the Serie A Capocannoniere standings, and it’s been a special season so far. Despite being an Italy international, this is just Retegui’s second season in Serie A, having spent the rest of his career in his native Argentina.
In his first season in Italy, Retegui scored seven goals in 29 games for Genoa, hampered slightly by injuries. While the goalscoring return wasn’t outstanding, he had performed enough to pique Atalanta’s interest following Gianluca Scamacca’s ACL injury. And it was a good decision for Atalanta.
Retegui has already blown his previous return out of the water, with 23 goals in Serie A so far this season. He’s averaging more goals per 90 minutes than any other player with at least 1,000 minutes in Serie A (1.05). Retegui also sits top for Expected Goals (16.34) and second for xG on Target (17.74), with a decent shot placement ratio of 1.09.
Five of Retegui’s 23 goals have been headers, the most in Serie A this season. In fact, he’s the only player in Europe’s top five leagues to score at least five goals with his right foot (nine), left foot (nine) and head (five) this season.
If he finishes this season as Serie A’s top scorer, Retegui will become just the second Atalanta player to take the Capocannoniere after Filippo Inzaghi in 1996-97 (24). And if he scores two more goals, Retegui will become the first-ever Atalanta player to score 25 goals in a single Serie A campaign.
