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Denmark odds to win Euro 2024: Probability, path to final, tactics, stats & full squad

By Squawka News

Denmark odds to win Euro 2024: Probability, path to final, tactics, stats & full squad

Published: 13:55, 29 March 2024 | Updated: 9:09, 14 April 2024

After reaching the semi-finals last time out, Denmark are preparing for this summer’s European Championships looking to make another statement on the international stage.

The Danes have a rich history in this tournament, with Euro 2020 the second time they have gone out in the final four, while they famously went all the way as shock winners in 1992 despite not initially even qualifying.

They won’t be among the favourites, but Denmark have more than enough quality in their ranks to trouble even the very best sides at the Euros, so nobody will be taking them lightly.

Latest Denmark odds to win Euro 2024

Betting Market Odds Probability
Denmark to win Euro 2024 40/1 with Bet365 2.4%
Denmark to reach Euro 2024 semi-finals 5/1 with BetVictor 16.7%
Denmark to win Group C 4/1 with BoyleSports 20%
Rasmus Hojlund to win Golden Boot 33/1 with Bet365

Denmark route to the Euro 2024 final in Berlin

Group stage fixtures

  • Slovenia (16 June 2024, 6pm, StuttgartArena)
  • England (20 June 2024, 6pm, Waldstadion)
  • Serbia (25 June 2024, 9pm, Allianz Arena)

Denmark’s potential knockout stage opponents

If Denmark win Group C, they’ll face one of the best third-place teams in the round of 16. Who that could be is really anyone’s guess. Should they then reach the quarter-finals, it’ll be the runner-up from either Group A — Germany, Scotland, Switzerland, Hungary — or Group B, which contains holders Italy, Spain, Croatia and Albania. From there, France or Belgium are Denmark’s most likely semi-final opponents, with any one of Germany, England, the Group B (group of death) winner or Portugal awaiting in the final.

Of course, with England in the same group as Denmark, they’re far more likely to finish second. That would leave them most likely facing neighbours Germany in the round of 16, Italy, Spain or Croatia in the quarter-finals, Portugal in the semi-finals and England, France or Belgium in the final.

There is also the prospect of Denmark going through as one of the best third-place teams, but that could present any number of scenarios. The only guarantee here is that they would then meet a group winner in the round of 16.

Denmark key players for this year’s European Championship

Denmark top Euros Golden Boot contender: Rasmus Højlund

  • Key stat: Only Romelu Lukaku (14), Cristiano Ronaldo (10), Kylian Mbappe (9) and Harry Kane (8) scored more goals than Rasmus Hojlund (7) during Euro 2024 Qualifying.

Rasmus Højlund had some initial struggles adjusting to life at Manchester United at the start of this season, but he’s finally found his feet. That said, he never missed a beat at international level, scoring seven goals during qualifying to leave him behind only Romelu Lukaku, Cristiano Ronaldo, Kylian Mbappe and Harry Kane in the charts.

That’s some elite company and it’s even more impressive when you consider he started the qualifying campaign with zero goals from just two senior international caps. His hat-trick in a 3-1 win over Scandinavian rivals Finland in March 2023 will live long in the memory.

Højlund has also impressed in the Champions League this season and finally looks like a genuine Premier League striker, with the former Atalanta man now extending his tally to 13 goals in 31 appearances across all competitions for Man Utd this campaign.

If he can keep up that form, many a Euro 2024 centre-back will fear coming up against him this summer.

Denmark primary playmaker: Christian Eriksen

  • Key stat: No Danish player registered more assists than Christian Eriksen (3) during Euro 2024 qualifying.

Sticking with Man Utd players, Christian Eriksen has really struggled at club level over the past 12 months, but continues to be Denmark’s primary creative outlet. The 31-year-old was level with Wolfsburg forward Jonas Wind as Denmark’s leading assist provider on three in qualifying. Perhaps unsurprisingly, Eriksen also created more chances (23) than any other Danish player, while only Luka Modric (24), Xherdan Shaqiri (25), Dusan Tadic (31) and Man Utd teammate Bruno Fernandes (37) bettered his tally throughout the whole of qualifying.

Eriksen is probably past his peak now, but that left foot remains a magic wand that could cast a spell over numerous Euro 2024 defences in Germany.

Denmark card magnets & top tacklers: Christian Nørgaard

  • Key stat: Nørgaard made more tackles (15) than any other Danish player during Euro 2024 qualifying.

There’s a huge Premier League influence in this Danish team but while Højlund and Eriksen will be in charge of unlocking the opposition this summer, Brentford’s Christian Nørgaard will be charged with keeping things secure at the other end. The defensive midfielder made a team-high 15 tackles during qualifying, while no teammate picked up more yellow cards (3); Nørgaard’s robust approach perhaps rubbed referees up the wrong way from time to time.

That checks out with his role with Brentford, too, with Nørgaard making 73 tackles and picking up eight yellow cards in the Premier League this season — the former 27 more than any other teammate and the latter also a joint team-high alongside Frank Onyeka.

Denmark rising star: Elias Jelert

Denmark have a host of exciting young players coming through right now but one of the biggest prospects is Elias Jelert. Still just 20 years old, Jelert has made the right-back spot his own at club level with FC Copenhagen, playing 88 times already over the past couple of years, registering his first goal and showing his creative streak with six assists.

Jelert’s efforts have been rewarded with his first couple of senior caps for Denmark, including playing 62 minutes in a qualifier against San Marino.

His exposure in the Champions League means Jelert is already catching the eye of some European giants and if he enjoys a strong Euro 2024 campaign this summer, he’s sure to be a target for many.

Denmark set-piece specialists

  • Penalties: Rasmus Hojlund
  • Free kicks: Christian Eriksen
  • Corners: Christian Eriksen

Denmark tactical analysis and formation

Denmark team stats from qualifying (average per game):

  • Corners in qualifying: 8.2
  • Shots on target: 5.5
  • Shots on target conceded: 2.00
  • Offsides: 0.90

Kasper Hjulmand has often switched to a five-at-the-back system but we’re more likely to see Denmark line up in a 4-3-3 shape during the Euro 2024 group stages; especially against Slovenia and Serbia.

Veteran stopper Kasper Schmeichel remains between the sticks, while Denmark have a lot of quality at full-back with Wolfsburg’s Joakim Maehle on the right and Victor Kristiansen of Bologna on the left. There’s plenty of depth behind those two, as well. Simon Kjaer is still the national team captain, but he may make way for the younger, more mobile pairing of Joachim Andersen and Jannik Vestergaard at centre-back.

In midfield, we have three players fulfilling three distinct roles. As mentioned, Nørgaard will be the destroyer, while ahead of him, Tottenham’s Pierre-Emile Højbjerg could be the box-to-box option, using his immense stamina to provide coverage across the pitch. That’ll then free up Eriksen to concentrate on opening up defences and providing chances for those ahead of him.

That trio will be led by Højlund, flanked on either side by Brentford’s Mikkel Damsgaard and Anders Dreyer of Anderlecht.

Denmark’s latest squad

Andreas Hansen Goalkeeper 28 Nordsjaelland
Mads Hermansen Goalkeeper 23 Leicester City
Frederik Rønnow Goalkeeper 31 Union Berlin
Joachim Andersen Defender 27 Crystal Palace
Jannik Vestergaard Defender 31 Leicester City
Joakim Maehle Defender 26 Wolfsburg
Jacob Rasmussen Defender 26 Brøndby
Victor Nelsson Defender 25 Galatasaray
Victor Kristiansen Defender 21 Bologna
Mads Roerslev Defender 24 Brentford
Elias Jelert Defender 20 FC Copenhagen
Mathias Jensen Midfielder 28 Brentford
Christian Eriksen Midfielder 32 Liverpool
Mikkel Damsgaard Midfielder 23 Brentford
Matt O’Riley Midfielder 23 Celtic
Morten Hjulmand Midfielder 24 Sporting CP
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg Midfielder 28 Tottenham
Gustav Isaksen Midfielder 22 Lazio
Rasmus Højlund Forward 21 Manchester United
Mohamed Daramy Forward 22 Reims
Kasper Dolberg Forward 26 Anderlecht
Yussuf Poulsen Forward 29 RB Leipzig
Anders Dreyer Forward 25 Anderlecht

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