Outright Odds

Champions League 2023/24 odds: Favourites after quarter-final first legs

By Harry Edwards

Champions League 2023/24 Odds: Who are the favourites after the group stage draw?

Published: 22:54, 10 April 2024

The 2023/24 Champions League is rolling on and we’re now into the quarter-finals.

2023/24 Champions League winner odds

Champions League Outright Odds
Squawka
Team
Man City
Arsenal
Real Madrid
Bayern Munich
PSG
Barcelona
Atletico Madrid
Borussia Dortmund

*Odds correct as of 11:30 on March 15. 18+ only. BeGambleAware.

You have to be 18+ to gamble. All odds within this article are accurate at the time of writing (19:00, 21/02/2024). BeGambleAware.

18+ only. New customers only. For verified UK clients only. The qualifying bet should start at £10 and have 1.5 or greater odds. Following the qualifying bet, you will receive 4 free bets that can be used one after another. Each free bet lasts for 7 days. Single bet only. Pre-Match or Live. No Cash-Out. Max payout – £500. BeGambleAware.org

2023/24 Champions League quarter-final first leg results:

  • Arsenal 2-2 Bayern Munich
  • Atletico Madrid 2-1 Borussia Dortmund
  • Real Madrid 3-3 Manchester City
  • Paris Saint-Germain 2-3 Barcelona

The last draw of the Champions League in its current format, Arsenal were the first name out of the hat and, of course, they were drawn against Bayern Munich. It’s a fixture with a lot of history in the Champions League, and one that Arsenal fans feel sore just thinking about. Bayern knocked Arsenal out of the Champions League last 16 in 2016/17, the last time the Gunners were in the competition prior to this season. Then, it was a 10-2 aggregate thumping, with Bayern winning 5-1 home and away. Bayern also knocked Arsenal out of the Champions League in 2012/13 and 2013/14, before sharing victories in the 2015/16 group stage.

It’s all to play for in the second leg after Bayern left the Emirates with a 2-2 draw after goals from Serge Gnabry and Harry Kane, who both scored on their returns to North London.

All four ties were fantastic, offering stories everywhere. Real Madrid and Manchester City played out an enthralling 3-3 draw, becoming only the second ever knockout stage match in the competition to see three goals scored in the opening 14 minutes of play. There were another five goals in PSG vs Barcelona, while Atletico Madrid edged out Borussia Dortmund.

Kane returns to North London

Of course, there was also the minor story of Harry Kane returning to face Arsenal, his former rivals from his days at Tottenham. Only against Leicester (20) and Everton (16) has Kane scored more goals than he has vs Arsenal, netting 15 in 20 games against them. Kane has never failed to score against Arsenal in a season, netting at the Emirates in a 3-1 loss for Tottenham last year and his penalty in the first leg made him the top scoring opposition player at the Emirates since the stadium opened.

 

The quarter-finals second legs are set to be played on 16/17 April 2024.

2023/24 Champions League semi-final draw:

As usual, the path to the final has been mapped out with the semi-final draw made immediately after the quarter-finals were done. And we’ve got some potentially tasty ties. In the first semi-final, you’ve got the potential of an all-Spanish clash between Atletico Madrid and Barcelona, or a repeat of the group stage fixture between Borussia Dortmund and PSG. We could also see PSG have to go up against Diego Simeone’s Atletico Madrid, or an exciting attacking tie between Dortmund and Barcelona.

On the other side, if Arsenal get past Bayern Munich it’s either the 14-time European champions Real Madrid, or Champions League holders Man City. To be the best you’ve got to beat the best, but that’s probably the toughest run they could have got. It’s the same for Bayern Munich, in what is their last hope for a trophy this season. And neither Real Madrid nor Man City will be happy about having to face one of Arsenal or Bayern in the semi-finals.

  • Atletico Madrid/Borussia Dortmund vs Paris Saint-Germain/Barcelona
  • Arsenal/Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid/Manchester City

The semi-finals are scheduled to be played on 30 April/1 May and 7/8 May 2024. The Final is set for 1 June 2024.

How do the Champions League favourites for 2023/24 rank?

Man City

Man City were always the early favourites to win the Champions League at the start of every season, but now they’ve proven they can go all the way, lifting the trophy last year. And their defence is still going strong.

The group stage was kind to Man City, with Pep Guardiola’s side going perfect against RB Leipzig, Crvena zvezda and Young Boys. That perfect run continued through the last 16, with FC Copenhagen beaten home and away. Including their last two matches of the 2022/23 campaign, Man City are now just the third team to win 10 consecutive matches in the Champions League, joining Real Madrid and Bayern Munich. And just look who’s standing in their way now… Los Blancos.

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE OPTA PROBABILITY RATINGS 2023/24

# TEAM WIN % FINAL % SEMI-FINAL %
1. Man City 28.5% 42.2% 61%
2. PSG 15.5% 35.9% 57.3%
3. Real Madrid 14.9% 24.2% 49%
4. Arsenal 11.8% 21.3% 58.3%
5. Borussia Dortmund 9.2% 25% 57.4%
6. Barcelona 8.5% 23.1% 42.7%
7. Bayern Munich 6.5% 12.2% 41.7%
8. Atletico Madrid 5.3% 16% 42.6%

Arsenal

In the Champions League for the first time since 2016/17, Arsenal will set their sights on breaking their quarter-final drought. Before becoming a Europa League regular, Arsenal were in the Champions League for 19 consecutive seasons but bowed out at the last 16 in each of their past seven appearances.

Arsenal finished top of their group, with four wins from six, one draw and one defeat. That set them up with last 16 tie against Porto, but they trailed 1-0 after the first leg. However, Arsenal’s last 16 curse is finally over, with the Gunners eventually winning 4-2 on penalties to reach the quarter-finals of the Champions League for the first time since 2009/10. But their celebrations may have been short-lived with the Gunners needing to overcome Bayern Munich in Germany in the second leg.

Real Madrid

One of the sides to lose to Man City last season (5-1 in the semi-finals), Real Madrid are on their latest quest for a record-extending 15th European Cup triumph. Last winners in 2022, Real Madrid will have an interesting campaign with Karim Benzema gone and a long-term injury for  Thibaut Courtois, who was so crucial to their triumph over Liverpool.

Real Madrid were yet another team to complete the group stage with a perfect record, making it seven victories as they left Leipzig with a slender 1-0 win. Although Los Blancos couldn’t win eight in a row, a 1-1 draw in their second leg against RB Leipzig was enough to secure another Champions League quarter-final berth. It’s a trip to the Etihad next after the first-leg 3-3 draw.

You have to be 18+ to gamble. All odds within this article are accurate at the time of writing (19:00, 21/02/2024). BeGambleAware.

18+ only. New customers only. For verified UK clients only. The qualifying bet should start at £10 and have 1.5 or greater odds. Following the qualifying bet, you will receive 4 free bets that can be used one after another. Each free bet lasts for 7 days. Single bet only. Pre-Match or Live. No Cash-Out. Max payout – £500. BeGambleAware.org

Bayern Munich

Bayern Munich made a big move in the summer transfer window to sign Harry Kane and they will have been hoping he could lift them to the top of Europe once more. The German side are six-time champions but were humbled in the quarter-finals by Man City last season, losing 4-1 over two legs.

They completed the group stage unbeaten, with five wins and one draw, but Bayern faced an uphill battle to remain in the Champions League. A 1-0 defeat to Lazio in the first leg of their last 16 tie had Bayern staring exit in the face. However, in the second leg, Bayern stepped up to win the tie 3-1 on aggregate thanks, in part, to a brace from Harry Kane. He could still win a trophy, but Arsenal of all teams stand in the way.

PSG

PSG will be hoping they can finally end their wait for European glory this season, but they have had a bit of an upheaval with both Neymar and Lionel Messi leaving last summer. Some may have said this is what they needed, especially after back-to-back last 16 exits. They were placed in a horrible group alongside Borussia Dortmund, AC Milan and Newcastle, scraping through in second.

PSG were more comfortable in the last 16, beating Real Sociedad 4-1 on aggregate, but have it all to do in Barcelona after losing their 3-2 defeat in the first leg.

Barcelona

Barcelona bowed out of the Champions League at the group stage last season and avoided that this time by topping the Group H standings. Last season, they were placed in an extremely tough group and showed it was a bit of a fluke as they went on to win La Liga pretty comfortably. Things were slightly easier this time around, with Barcelona finishing ahead of Porto, Shakhtar Donetsk and newcomers Royal Antwerp.

They also took the lead in their last 16 first leg against Napoli, but were pegged back to 1-1. However, they didn’t mess around in the return leg, winning 3-2 and back in the quarter-finals for the first time since 2020.

Atletico Madrid

After the first legs of the last 16, nobody expected Atletico Madrid to be in the quarter-finals. They trailed Inter Milan 1-0, and the Italian side have been fantastic this season. But, a 2-1 win in the second leg took the tie all the way to penalties, with Atletico eventually coming out on top.

It’s a good way to bounce back after Atletico Madrid’s group stage exit last season, and it’s their seventh quarter-final appearance in the past 11 seasons, which included two runs to the final. Borussia Dortmund are the team standing in their way now, but have a one goal advantage to take to Germany.

Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund weren’t given much chance in the Champions League this season. Having fallen at the group stage two years ago, and losing in the last season in 2022/23, Dortmund were placed in the toughest group. But the German side finished top of the group, three points clear of Paris Saint-Germain, while AC Milan and Newcastle dropped out.

Their reward was a draw against PSV in the last 16 and, after the first leg finish level at 1-1, Dortmund made their quality known in the return fixture to go through as 3-1 winners. Dortmund are in the quarter-finals of the Champions League for just the second time in seven seasons, also reaching this stage in 2020/21, where they’ll have to overcome a first leg defeat to Atletico Madrid.