Outright Odds

Belgium odds to win Euro 2024: Probability, path to final, tactics, stats and star players

By Mohamed Moallim

Published: 10:30, 1 July 2024

Belgium were among the favourites of some people to reach the latter stages of Euro 2024, but they haven’t made it easy for themselves.

Now led by former Schalke 04 and RB Leipzig head coach Domenico Tedesco, the Red Devils made light work of their qualifying campaign, going unbeaten in Group F, albeit finishing just a point ahead of Austria.

However, that form has not been carried into the tournament. A shock 1-0 defeat to Slovakia in their opening game was rectified by a 2-0 win over Romania in their second fixture at least, before a 0-0 draw against Ukraine was enough to secure progress from a group in which all four teams finished on four points. However, they finished second and are on the much tougher side of the draw.

Latest Belgium odds to win Euro 2024
Belgium to win Euro 2024
Romelu Lukaku to win Golden Boot

Belgium route to the Euro 2024 final in Berlin

Group stage fixtures

  • Belgium 0-1 Slovakia
  • Belgium 2-0 Romania
  • Ukraine 0-0 Belgium

Belgium potential knockout stage opponents

Belgium were able to qualify in second place from Group D, meaning they play France in the last 16. That puts them on the harder side of the draw, so even if they shock the odds and make it past Les Bleus, they’ll likely face Portugal in the quarter-finals and would need to beat them to play Spain or Germany in the semi-final.

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Belgium key players for this year’s European Championship

Belgium top Euros Golden Boot contender: Romelu Lukaku

  • Key stat: Romelu Lukaku has hit the target with seven of his 10 shots at Euro 2024 so far.

There are never any surprises when it comes to who leads the attack for Belgium. Although often maligned at club level — despite boasting numbers for which many strikers would die for — Romelu Lukaku is another matter when donning Belgium’s jersey. He is not only their all-time leading scorer with 85 goals, but only Cristiano Ronaldo (128) has bagged more for a European nation.

However, at the moment we are getting the unlucky in front of goal Lukaku. The Belgian has had 10 shots at Euro 2024 so far, the joint-most in the Belgium squad. Of those 10 efforts, seven have hit the target, the second-most in the tournament as a whole. However, Lukaku has only posted an xG of 1.67 from those efforts and, of course, he’s yet to score. Lukaku did have two goals ruled out in the group stage, one for offside and another for handball in the build up. But if he can get kicking, Lukaku could propel Belgium far.

Belgium primary playmaker: Kevin De Bruyne

  • Key stat: Kevin De Bruyne has created 11 chances at Euro 2024 so far.

Four of Belgium’s 10 most capped players are still active. Thibaut Courtois is not part of Tedesco’s squad this summer, but Jan Vertonghen, Lukaku and their creative genius Kevin De Bruyne will undoubtedly be. A spate of injuries has dogged De Bruyne in 2023/24, but he’s finally surpassed the 100-cap mark and scored his 27th goal in a pre-tournament friendly win over Montenegro. On his return to the Manchester City earlier this year, De Bruyne reminding everyone exactly what they were missing.

And he’s been flexing his creative muscles at Euro 2024 so far. The Belgian has created 11 chances at the tournament, more than any of his teammates. He has also created two big chances, another high among the Red Devils. We are still waiting for his first assist of the tournament, however, with Belgium low-scoring.

Belgium card magnets & top tacklers: Wout Faes

  • Key stat: Wout Faes has made six tackles at Euro 2024 so far.

Five players have played all 270 minutes for Belgium at Euro 2024 so far, one of which is Wout Faes. A guaranteed starter at the heart of Belgium’s defence, Faes never really looks comfortable, which sees him high up in the tackles and fouls list for his nation.

Faes has made six tackles, more than any other Belgium player but has also committed four goals and been booked once. You can compare this to Amadou Onana, the battling midfielder that has made five tackles but is yet to concede a foul.

Belgium rising star: Johan Bakayoko

There was a considerable fear that beyond the fabled golden generation, Belgium wasn’t producing talent of comparable ability. It remains to be seen whether the new class lives up to their predecessors, but someone many observers feel can reach those lofty heights is PSV winger Johan Bakayoko, who is already tipped for a Premier League move. Bakayoko was among the biggest reasons why Peter Bosz’s side raced away with the Dutch championship; the 20-year-old forward chipped in with nine assists, while netting 12 himself.

He also created 68 chances and was a constant threat for the runaway Eredivisie champions.

It looked as though Bayakoko would be a starter for Belgium but he has only played 46 minutes at Euro 2024, with Jeremy Doku and Leandro Trossard the favoured wingers.

Belgium set-piece specialists

  • Penalties: Romelu Lukaku
  • Free kicks: Kevin De Bruyne
  • Corners: Kevin De Bruyne

Belgium tactical analysis and formation

Belgium team stats from Euro 2024 (average per game):

  • Corners: 6.33
  • Corners conceded: 5.67
  • Shots on target: 6.0
  • Shots on target conceded: 4.33
  • Offsides: 2.33

Since being appointed Belgium’s national team manager, succeeding the long-tenured Roberto Martinez, Domenico Tedesco has been flexible in the Red Devils’ lineup. One thing is sure: they’ll be going with a back four, with him never diverting from that in any of his 11 matches. So far, he’s used five different formations, with 4-2-3-1 being the most common, which should be the shape Belgium predominantly takes. During their unbeaten Euro 2024 qualifying campaign, they averaged 58.13% possession and 86% passing accuracy per game.

His first game in charge was a 0-3 win at Sweden; they started in 4-1-3-2 with Trossard and Lukaku up top with De Bruyne sandwiched between two wingers. His first game in charge was a 0-3 win at Sweden; they started in 4-1-3-2 with Trossard and Lukaku up top with De Bruyne sandwiched between two wingers. Kevin De Bruyne has been takinh up the number 10 role in Belgium’s 4-2-3-1, with Lukaku leading the forward line. Doku and Trossard occupy the flanks,. Koen Casteels is currently in possession of the number one journey, with Wout Faes and Jan Vertonghen sitting in front as Belgium’s first-choice central defensive pairing.

Tedesco has spoken out ahead of Belgium’s last 16 tie against France, commenting on the boos his team received after their goalless draw with Ukraine. During that game, De Bruyne was also targeted with a laser pen when lining up a free-kick, with Tedesco also commented on.

“Anyone who knows me knows I don’t like to complain, so when I do it shows how much there was to it,” Tedesco told reporters. “The authorities and tournament organisers know that I was unhappy, but it’s over now. We qualified.

“In terms of the fans it is done and dusted now. Everybody has the right to act as they see fit. For us it was disappointing to see as it wasn’t an easy game. The fans are allowed to express what they feel. They are paying a lot of money for a ticket so it’s okay, but it’s also okay for the team to be disappointed because we were qualified.

“The moments after the game [when you’ve qualified] are important so of course we were a little bit broken. But what happened is not a topic any more.”

Belgium final Euro 2024 squad

Koen Casteels Goalkeeper 31 VfL Wolfsburg
Thomas Kaminski Goalkeeper 31 Luton Town
Matz Sels Goalkeeper 32 Nottingham Forest
Timothy Castagne Defender 28 Fulham
Zeno Debast Defender 20 Anderlecht
Arthur Theate Defender 23 Rennes
Wout Faes Defender 25 Leicester City
Jan Vertonghen Defender 36 Anderlecht
Thomas Meunier Defender 32 Trabzonspor
Maxim De Cuyper Defender 23 Club Brugge
Kevin De Bruyne Midfielder 32 Man City
Aster Vranckx Midfielder 21 VFL Wolfsburg
Amadou Onana Midfielder 22 Everton
Youri Tielemans Midfielder 26 Aston Villa
Axel Witsel Midfielder 35 Atletico Madrid
Orel Mangala Midfielder 26 Lyon
Arthur Vermeeren Midfielder 19 Atlético Madrid
Charles De Ketelaere Forward 23 Atalanta
Jérémy Doku Forward 21 Manchester City
Loïs Openda Forward 24 RB Leipzig
Romelu Lukaku Forward 30 Roma
Leandro Trossard Forward 29 Arsenal
Dodi Lukebakio Forward 26 Sevilla
Johan Bakayoko Forward 20 PSV Eindhoven
Yannick Carrasco Forward 30 Al-Shabab

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