Ballon d’Or odds for 2026 make Harry Kane the 1/3 favourite with William Hill ahead of Monday’s ceremony at the London Palladium, with Lamine Yamal out to 2/1 as the only serious challenger.
Kane has been backed into the shortest price of the year in this market. William Hill say 1/3 is the lowest any player has been since betting opened, and it is a long way from the 7/4 he was at the start of September. If the bookmakers are right, he will be the first Englishman to win the award since Michael Owen in 2001.
Spain’s World Cup triumph keeps Yamal in the conversation, but he has drifted from odds-on to 2/1 since the start of October. Kylian Mbappe is next at 16/1, and William Hill price the rest of the 30-man shortlist at 25/1 or bigger.
The 2026 Ballon d’Or is presented at the London Palladium on Monday 26th October at 8pm UK time, the first time the ceremony has been held outside Paris. Below, we run through the latest Ballon d’Or betting, how the market has moved and how to watch.
| Player | William Hill odds | Implied chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane | 1/3 | 75% |
| Lamine Yamal | 2/1 | 33.3% |
| Kylian Mbappe | 16/1 | 5.9% |
| Any other player | 25/1 or bigger | 3.8% or less |
Ballon d’Or odds: the 2026 favourites
Harry Kane – 1/3
Harry Kane goes into Monday as the clear favourite after arguably the finest season of his career.
The England captain’s wait for major silverware is over. He scored 61 goals in 51 games for Bayern Munich, more than anyone in Europe, as they won a second straight Bundesliga title and the DFB-Pokal. He then led the Three Lions to the World Cup semi-finals, scoring six goals along the way.
Although England fell short against Argentina, the market has only moved one way since the shortlist landed on 8th September. Kane was 7/4 at the start of that month and is now 1/3, which gives him a 75% chance of lifting the trophy. For the full case, read why Harry Kane should win the 2026 Ballon d’Or.
Kane has admitted the wait is “very stressful” for his family, telling reporters he would love to know the result in advance.
Lamine Yamal – 2/1
Lamine Yamal continues to rewrite the record books.
Still only a teenager, the Barcelona winger inspired Spain to World Cup glory with another series of match-winning performances on the biggest stage. His creativity, dribbling and composure regularly separated him from defenders throughout the tournament, and a win on Monday would make him the youngest Ballon d’Or winner in history.
Yamal shared favouritism with Kane for much of 2026, but the market has turned against him this month. He has drifted from odds-on to 2/1, a 33.3% chance, which still leaves him as the only realistic threat to the favourite.
Kylian Mbappe – 16/1
Kylian Mbappe rarely stays out of Ballon d’Or discussions for long, and he completes the top three in the betting.
The France captain enjoyed another prolific season at club level and delivered on the international stage, too, despite Les Bleus falling short of another World Cup final. Mbappe became the all-time World Cup top goalscorer this summer, taking his tally to 22, and won the tournament’s Golden Boot.
Even so, the market treats this as a two-horse race. At 16/1, Mbappe is given a 5.9% chance of a first Ballon d’Or.
Who else is in the mix?
Everyone else on the 30-man shortlist is 25/1 or bigger with William Hill, so a winner from outside the top three would be a major upset.
Rodri won the World Cup Golden Ball as Spain lifted the trophy, and he was as short as 9/2 earlier in the week. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia was the big mover after the shortlist was revealed, shortening from 33/1 into single figures.
Lionel Messi was 50/1 when the World Cup began and shortened to 4/1 after eight goals and four assists in eight matches took Argentina to another final. The market has cooled on the 39-year-old since the shortlist was published, and he is now a long shot for a ninth Ballon d’Or.
Michael Olise is attracting support after an outstanding year for club and country (read why Olise is levelling up). Jude Bellingham, Ousmane Dembele, Fabian Ruiz, Erling Haaland, Achraf Hakimi and Declan Rice complete the chasing pack.
How the Ballon d’Or odds have moved
The 2026 market has swung more than once. After the World Cup final in July, Kane led at 7/4 with Yamal close behind at 9/4 and Messi into 4/1 on the back of Argentina’s run.
Yamal briefly took over at the top in late September and early October, but Kane has been odds-on with every bookmaker since mid-October. He was 4/7 on Monday 19th October, and William Hill have now cut him to 1/3 with four days to go.
| Player | Start of September | 19th October | 22nd October |
|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane | 7/4 | 4/7 | 1/3 |
| Lamine Yamal | 9/4 | 11/4 | 2/1 |
| Kylian Mbappe | 9/2 | 6/1 | 16/1 |
Earlier prices via Sky Bet as published on this page at the time; 22nd October prices via William Hill.
When is the Ballon d’Or 2026 ceremony and how can I watch it?
The 70th Ballon d’Or ceremony takes place at the London Palladium on Monday 26th October 2026. The awards start at 8pm UK time, with red carpet coverage from around 6pm, and the show is expected to last about two hours.
It is the first time the ceremony has been held outside Paris. London was chosen as a tribute to Sir Stanley Matthews, who won the first Ballon d’Or in 1956.
UK viewers can watch live and free on DAZN with a free account, and the official Ballon d’Or website also streams the ceremony.
How the Ballon d’Or is decided
The Ballon d’Or is awarded by France Football, in partnership with UEFA, and voted for by a jury of international journalists. The jury ranks players on individual performances, team achievements and sportsmanship.
Since 2022, the award has covered a full season rather than a calendar year. That means the 2026 edition weighs the 2025/26 club campaign together with the World Cup.
Previous winners
| Player | Year |
|---|---|
| Ousmane Dembele (PSG) | 2025 |
| Rodri (Man City) | 2024 |
| Lionel Messi (Inter Miami) | 2023 |
| Karim Benzema (Real Madrid) | 2022 |
| Lionel Messi (PSG) | 2021 |
| No award due to COVID pandemic | 2020 |
| Lionel Messi (Barcelona) | 2019 |
| Luka Modric (Real Madrid) | 2018 |
| Cristiano Ronaldo (Real Madrid) | 2017 |
| Cristiano Ronaldo (Real Madrid) | 2016 |
Think you know your history? Try our Ballon d’Or history quiz.
Ballon d’Or odds FAQ
You have to be 18+ to gamble. UK only. Odds via William Hill and accurate at the time of writing (22nd October). GambleAware.
Harry Kane is the 1/3 favourite with William Hill after scoring 61 goals in 51 games as Bayern Munich won the Bundesliga and the DFB-Pokal, then reaching the World Cup semi-finals with England. Lamine Yamal is next at 2/1.
The 2026 Ballon d’Or is presented at the London Palladium on Monday 26th October 2026, starting at 8pm UK time. It is the first time the ceremony has been held outside Paris.
The ceremony is streamed live and free on DAZN with a free account, and on the official Ballon d’Or website. Red carpet coverage starts at around 6pm UK time.
William Hill make Harry Kane 1/3 to win the 2026 Ballon d’Or, an implied chance of 75%. He was 7/4 at the start of September.
Ousmane Dembele won the 2025 award after an outstanding season with Paris Saint-Germain.
Messi has won a record eight Ballon d’Ors, most recently in 2023.
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