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Albania odds to win Euro 2024: Probability, path to final, tactics, stats & full squad

By Harry Edwards

Albania odds to win Euro 2024: Probability, path to final, tactics, stats & full squad

Published: 13:52, 6 April 2024

Albania will be hoping to make a name for themselves in what is just their second ever major tournament at Euro 2024 this summer.

The Eagles were also at Euro 2016, finishing third in their group behind France and Switzerland, with one victory over Romania which wasn’t enough to secure passage to the last 16. A shock winner of their qualifying group, Albania still aren’t given much chance of success this summer, at just 0.2%. With a horrible group, it’s hard to see Albania picking up a point, let alone qualifying for the knockout stages.

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Latest Albania odds to win Euro 2024

Betting Market Odds Probability
Albania to win Euro 2024 500/1 with BetGoodwin 0.2%
Albania to reach Euro 2024 semi-finals 40/1 with Bet365 2.4%
Albania to win Group B 25/1 with Sky Bet 3.8%
Sokol Cikalleshi to win Golden Boot

Albania route to the Euro 2024 final in Berlin

Group stage fixtures

  • Italy (15 June 2024, 8pm, Signal Iduna Park)
  • Croatia (19 June 2024, 2pm, Volksparkstadion)
  • Spain (24 June 2024, 8pm, Red Bull Arena)

Albania’s potential knockout stage opponents

If we’re being realistic, Albania’s best chance of qualifying for the last 16 is as one of the third-placed sides. That would secure them a last 16 draw against either the winner of Group F or Group E’s winners, so Portugal or Belgium. If they go the Portugal route, then Albania could face Netherlands and Spain en route to a final against France. If they start against Belgium, then Albania could match France and England before facing Spain in the final.

Albania key players for this year’s European Championship

Albania top Euros Golden Boot contender: Sokol Cikalleshi

  • Key stat: Eight of Sokol Cikalleshi’s 11 league goals for Konyaspor this season have been penalties.

When you look at the attack of Albania, English fans will probably be drawn to Armando Broja. But he is more the future, while Sokol Cikalleshi is the present. The 33-year-old has scored 13 goals in 60 caps for Albania, with just two players having netted more in the nation’s history. Cikalleshi is one goal off second-placed Alban Bushi, and five behind Erjon Bogdani. He’ll be eyeing up top spot, and history, before the year is up. What works in Cikalleshi’s favour in terms of goals is the fact that he is a fine penalty taker. Since the start of the season, Cikalleshi has taken nine penalties in open play, scoring every one. Eight of those have come for club team Konyaspor, with 11 goals altogether in the league, alongside five assists.

Albania primary playmaker: Jasir Asani

  • Key stat: Jasir Asani was the only Albania player to record more than one assist in Euro 2024 qualifying.

Jasir Asani plays his club football in South Korea with Gwangju FC, with their 2024 season only just having started. But he was the man to rely on for Albania in Euro 2024 qualifying. Not just because he set up two of Albania’s 12 goals in qualifying, but the fact that he’s their corner taker too. The 28-year-old took 12 of Albania’s 21 corners in qualifying, as well as nine free-kicks. If Albania want to cause Italy, Spain and Croatia problems, they may be better off doing it from set pieces. So Asani will be key.

Albania card magnets & top tacklers: Taulant Seferi

  • Key stat: Taulant Seferi made more tackles than any other Albania player in Euro 2024 qualifying.

Cikalleshi was prone to fouls and yellow cards in Euro 2024 qualifying, but Taulant Seferi was a busy man himself. Seferi made nine tackles in qualifying, more than any other Albania player. He also made 18 ball recoveries and three clearances. The midfielder committed seven fouls and was booked once, in just 394 minutes — averaging 1.6 fouls per 90 in qualifying. Playing on the left wing, a lot of Seferi’s action is against full-backs, so we could see some frustration grow up against the defensive stars of Spain, Italy and Croatia.

Albania rising star: Armando Broja

Albania have done well at bedding their young players at an early age, which means someone like Armando Broja already has 19 caps at the age of 22. But he is still very much a rising star, and the future of Albania. The Slough-born striker has always represented Albania at international level, turning down an invitation to play for England U21 in 2019, earning his first senior call up in 2020. Despite playing 19 times for Albania, Broja’s time with his country has been hampered by injury and then a lack of playing time. He’s struggling once again with Fulham, on loan from Chelsea, so isn’t expected to be a starter for Albania this summer. But he’ll be there, ready to take his opportunity.

Albania set-piece specialists

  • Penalties: Sokol Cikalleshi
  • Free kicks: Kristjan Asllani
  • Corners: Jasir Asani

Albania tactical analysis and formation

Albania team stats from qualifying (average per game):

  • Corners: 2.6
  • Shots on target: 3.8
  • Shots on target conceded: 3.1
  • Offsides: 2

It will be interesting to see whether tactics change given the group they are in this summer, but Albania have been pretty consistent in sticking with a 4-2-3-1 under Sylvinho. The former Arsenal and Barcelona defender took charge at the start of last year and has lost just three of his 11 games in charge, though two of those came this year.

With everyone fit Etrit Berisha might just win the battle to be No.1 goalkeeper, though he missed the recent international break through injury. It feels as though the defence picks itself, with Elseid Hysaj and Mario Mitaj in the wide positions and a centre-back pairing of Berat Djimsiti and Enea Mihaj.

In the double pivot, Ylber Ramadani and Kristian Asllani has been the go-to pairing, with the latter starting 10 of the 11 games under Sylvinho, and the former nine. Then, Nedim Bajrami appears to be the favoured No.10, or the extra midfield man if a 4-3-3 or 4-1-4-1 is favoured.

On the flanks, Myrto Uzuni had a few opportunities early in Sylvinho’s time but there is now a settled wing partnership of Jasir Asani and Taulant Seferi. And, finally, through the middle we’d expect Sokol Cikalleshi to lead the line. But the likes of Rey Manaj, Mirlind Daku and Armando Broja have have also taken the sole striker role of late.

Albania’s latest squad

Alen Sherri Goalkeeper 26 Egnatia
Elhan Kastrati Goalkeeper 27 Cittadella
Thomas Strakosha Goalkeeper 29 Brentford
Ivan Balliu Defender 32 Rayo Vallecano
Mario Mitaj Defender 20 Lokomotiv Moscow
Elseid Hysaj Defender 30 Lazio
Frederic Veseli Defender 31 Fatih Karagumruk
Berat Djimsiti Defender 31 Atalanta
Enea Mihaj Defender 25 Famalicao
Jon Mersinaj Defender 25 Lokomotiva
Marash Kumbulla Defender 24 Sassuolo
Naser Aliji Defender 30 Voluntari
Keidi Bare Midfielder 26 Espanyol
Nedim Bajrami Midfielder 25 Sassuolo
Qazin Laci Midfielder 28 Sparta Prague
Ylber Ramadani Midfielder 27 Lecce
Kristjan Asllani Midfielder 22 Inter Milan
Rey Manaj Forward 27 Sivasspor
Jasir Asani Forward 28 Gwangju FC
Taulant Seferi Forward 27 Baniyas
Sokol Cikalleshi Forward 33 Konyaspor
Ernest Muci Forward 23 Besiktas
Arbnor Mucolli Forward 24 IFC Goteborg
Armando Broja Forward 22 Fulham
Arber Hoxha Forward 25 Dinamo Zagreb

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