Midtjylland vs Besiktas predictions concern the second leg of the Europa League second qualifying round on Thursday 30th July at MCH Arena. Kick-off is at 6pm (UK time), with the Danish side trailing 1-0 on aggregate after Orkun Kokcu’s first-half strike in Istanbul last week.
That first leg told only half the story. Friday Etim received a straight red card after just 16 minutes, and FC Midtjylland spent the remaining 79 minutes defending with ten men. Besiktas racked up 28 shots and posted an Expected Goals (xG) figure of 3.68, yet converted just once. Midtjylland goalkeeper Elias Olafsson made six saves to keep the deficit manageable. Tullberg’s side now return to MCH Arena, a ground where they scored in all eight Europa League home fixtures last season.
Midtjylland vs Besiktas predictions & betting tips
| OUR PREDICTION | ODDS & BOOKMAKER | CONFIDENCE | WHY WE’RE BACKING IT |
|---|---|---|---|
| Franculino Dju anytime goalscorer | 11/8 @ Sky Bet (42%) | Dju started up front in Istanbul and will lead the line again in Herning. Midtjylland need at least two goals to progress outright, and their home European record demands respect. They scored in all eight home Europa League games last season, netting 16 times across those fixtures. The first-leg xG of 0.59 reflected a ten-man rear-guard action rather than Midtjylland’s true attacking capability. Dju will be the focal point of an all-out attacking approach, and at 11/8 Sky Bet offer standout value against the 1/1 available elsewhere. | |
| Orkun Kokcu anytime goalscorer | 5/1 @ Sky Bet (17%) | Kokcu already has his goal in this tie. The Besiktas midfielder finished from outside the box into the top corner on 26 minutes in the first leg. He takes free-kicks and corners for Italiano’s side. Midtjylland’s desperation to push forward will leave space on the counter-attack. Besiktas created four big chances and registered 22 chances created in Istanbul. Kokcu had the most influential performance of any player on the pitch that night. At 5/1, the price is generous for a player who has already found the net in this fixture. He carries a long-range threat from every dead-ball situation. |
Odds correct at time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
How both teams head into Midtjylland vs Besiktas
FC Midtjylland
Midtjylland are no strangers to European knockout football. Last season they reached the round of 16 in the Europa League. Nottingham Forest were beaten 3-2 at the City Ground and Celtic fell 3-1 at MCH Arena during the group stage. Maccabi Tel Aviv were dispatched 3-0 away, and Sturm Graz, Genk, and Dinamo Zagreb were all beaten at MCH Arena.
That home record is the foundation for Thursday’s second leg. Midtjylland won six of eight Europa League home fixtures in 2025/26, scoring in every single one. The sole defeat came against Forest in a round-of-16 tie that went to extra time and penalties. The first leg flattered Besiktas. A 16th-minute red card for Etim forced Midtjylland into a damage-limitation exercise, and the 1-0 scoreline represents a strong result under the circumstances. Besiktas held 74.6% possession and generated an xG of 3.68, yet found Olafsson in inspired form between the posts.
At full strength and at home, this is a very different proposition. Manager Mike Tullberg will set up with far more attacking intent, and the MCH Arena crowd will create a hostile atmosphere for the visitors.
Besiktas
Besiktas arrive in Herning with the advantage but carry their own European baggage. Last season, Italiano’s side were eliminated from the Uefa Conference League by Lausanne-Sport, drawing 1-1 in Switzerland before losing 1-0 at home. Before that, they lost 6-2 on aggregate to Shakhtar Donetsk in the Europa League qualifying rounds.
The first-leg display was one of total dominance on paper. Besiktas completed 606 passes at 88% accuracy and created four big chances. They hit the woodwork once and forced six saves from Olafsson. The concern for Italiano is conversion. Besiktas missed five big chances in Istanbul and should have killed the tie. The xG gulf of 3.68 to 0.59 underlines how much the red card skewed the contest. Besiktas cannot expect the same numerical advantage in the return leg.
Leandro Trossard, the former Arsenal attacker, and Wilfred Ndidi offer Premier League pedigree. Oh Hyeon-gyu leads the line, while Vaclav Cerny provides creativity from the right flank. Semih Kilicsoy gives Italiano pace from the bench.
Midtjylland team news
The headline is Etim’s absence. His straight red card in the 16th minute of the first leg carries an automatic one-match suspension, ruling him out of the return fixture. Etim started alongside Dju in a 3-4-1-2 formation in Istanbul, and Tullberg will need a replacement. Cho Gue-sung, Junior Brumado, and Mikael Uhre are all options to partner Dju in attack. Rasmus Kristensen, the experienced former Leeds United defender, anchored the back three in the first leg and should do so again. Philip Billing, formerly of Bournemouth, will sit at the heart of midfield. Olafsson is expected to continue in goal after his outstanding six-save display in Istanbul.
Besiktas team news
Italiano’s selection should be straightforward. No Besiktas player received a card in the first leg, and the starting XI from Istanbul is available in full. Alexander Nubel is established as first choice in goal. The back four of Amir Murillo, Tiago Djalo, Emirhan Topcu, and Ridvan Yilmaz started in Istanbul and should be retained. Salih Ozcan screens the defence, with Kokcu, Cerny, Junior Olaitan, and Ilhan Fakili occupying the midfield band behind Oh. Trossard and Milot Rashica provide attacking firepower from the bench. Besiktas have the squad depth to manage this tie in different ways depending on how the game unfolds.
Head-to-Head
These two clubs had never met before last week. The first leg in Istanbul was their maiden competitive fixture, and Besiktas hold a slender 1-0 lead heading into the return.
Who will advance in key Europa League fixture?
The wider European pedigree favours Midtjylland. They have been regulars in the Europa League group stage in recent seasons and reached the round of 16 in 2025/26. Besiktas are one of Turkey’s biggest clubs but have struggled in Europe. Lausanne-Sport knocked them out of the Uefa Conference League last season.
Translating domestic stature into continental consistency remains a challenge. Midtjylland are favourites at a best price of 8/11 with bet365. The draw is 13/5 and Besiktas are 3/1. The market reflects the reality of this tie. MCH Arena is a fortress, Midtjylland will have 11 men this time, and a 1-0 deficit is narrow enough to overturn. Besiktas know a single away goal would force the Danes to score three. Italiano’s side have struggled on the road in Europe, however. A 1-0 home defeat to Lausanne-Sport and a 6-2 aggregate loss to Shakhtar Donetsk raise questions about composure when ties remain alive.
Dju at 11/8 to score anytime is the standout selection. Midtjylland will throw bodies forward at a ground where they have scored in every European home game for over a year. Kokcu at 5/1 provides the away-goal angle. He has already scored in this tie and carries a set-piece threat that Midtjylland cannot afford to ignore.
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