Wolverhampton Wanderers find themselves at a crossroads as they host Brentford at Molineux on Saturday, 20 December, with kick-off set for 15:00.
The stark contrast in fortunes could not be clearer: Wolves are rooted to the foot of the table and winless after 16 matches, while Brentford travel to the Midlands looking to build on their far superior attacking output. The question is whether Wolves can stop the rot or if Brentford’s firepower will prove decisive yet again in this crucial Premier League showdown.
Best Bets & Predictions
Based on Wolves’ defensive frailties and Brentford’s attacking consistency, here are our top betting recommendations. We’re especially confident in Brentford to win, given their clear edge in both goals scored and underlying xG (expected goals) numbers.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford to Win | 1/1 @ Bet365 (50.0%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Brentford is favoured due to a significant defensive disparity. Wolves have conceded a league-high 35 goals with a poor Expected Goals Against (xGA) of 25.65 . Brentford’s attack, generating 1.42 Expected Goals (xG) per match, is perfectly positioned to exploit this vulnerability. Furthermore, Brentford’s own defence is far more robust, having conceded only 25 goals , providing a solid foundation for a comfortable victory. |
| Player Shots on Target Outside the Box – Jordan Henderson Over 0.5 | 8/1 @ Bet365 (11.1%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Henderson has a clear preference for shooting from outside the box (66.7% of his shots). This style directly exploits Wolves’ most significant defensive flaw—their inability to prevent opponents from getting shots on target from distance (1.68 SOTOB conceded per match). Given that Wolves concede an average of 1.68 SOTOB per game, it is highly probable that Henderson, as a primary long-range shooter for Brentford, will be the player to capitalize on this space and register at least one shot on target from outside the box. The bet only requires a single successful attempt. |
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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Wolves vs Brentford match odds
How both teams head into Wolves vs Brentford
Wolverhampton Wanderers’ Premier League season has been disastrous, leaving them 20th in the table with only 2 points from a 0-2-14 record . Their primary issue is a porous defense, conceding a league-high 35 goals . While their Expected Goals Against (xGA) is 24.63, the 10-goal difference highlights significant underperformance from their goalkeeper . Offensively, they have struggled, scoring only 9 goals . This combination of poor finishing and a leaky defence has put them on pace to break the record for the lowest points total in Premier League history.
Brentford’s Premier League season has been one of mid-table consistency, currently sitting 15th with 20 points from a 6-2-8 record . Their strength lies in their attack, which has outperformed expectations with 28 goals scored against an Expected Goals (xG) of 22.4 . Defensively, they have conceded 25 goals , which is slightly better than their Expected Goals Against (xGA) of 24.63 . A strong home record of 5-2-1 has been key, providing 17 of their 20 points
Wolves team news
Rodrigo Gomes has undergone surgery and will be out of action until February, while Jean-Ricner Bellegarde and Marshall Munetsi are more likely to make their returns in January. Yerson Mosquera will serve a suspension this weekend after picking up five yellow cards and Leon Chiwome has seen his season come to an end after an ACL injury. Emmanuel Agbadou begins his time at AFCON, leaving Wolves weakened in defence.
Brentford team news
Fabio Carvalho and Antoni Milambo have both picked up ACL injuries and won’t feature again this season, while Joshua Dasilva and Reiss Nelson are both a couple of weeks away from making their returns. Dango Ouattara and Frank Onyeka have joined their nations for AFCON and will be missing for Brentford for at least the next couple of weeks.
Season Form & Standings
Wolves have taken just two points from sixteen matches and remain the only side in the division without a win. Brentford have fared better, sitting 15th after six wins and 22 goals scored, though their defence has also been breached 25 times.
| Team | Pos | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 20 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 9 | 35 | -26 | 2 |
| Brentford | 15 | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 20 |
Head-to-Head: Last 5 Meetings
This fixture has been closely contested, with Wolves winning 5, Brentford 3 and 5 draws in their last 13 meetings. Recent clashes have produced goals, with the last two encounters yielding a combined 9 goals.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 25/05/25 | Wolves 1-1 Brentford | Premier League |
| 05/10/24 | Brentford 5-3 Wolves | Premier League |
| 10/02/24 | Wolves 0-2 Brentford | Premier League |
| 16/01/24 | Wolves 3-2 Brentford (AET) | FA Cup |
| 05/01/24 | Brentford 1-1 Wolves | FA Cup |
Conclusion
Wolves’ desperate search for a first win meets Brentford’s relentless attack in a contest that looks set to test the hosts’ resolve to the limit. With Brentford boasting a striker in Igor Thiago who has already notched 11 goals and Wolves shipping over two per game, the value lies firmly with the visitors. Will Wolves finally break their duck, or will Brentford’s clinical edge prove too much? Our top pick is Brentford to win at 1/1 with Bet365 (50.0%).
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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