Sweden and Poland will clash in the UEFA Path B World Cup qualification final with both nations angling to qualify for the biggest international competition in world football.
Sweden overcame Ukraine in their semi-final, with Poland able to get past Albania to reach this point. Everything is on the line for both countries but only one can make the World Cup when they meet at Strawberry Arena on Tuesday evening.
Best Bets & Predictions
Goals have been on the menu for both of these nations in recent games and, due to that and how much is riding on this contest, we’re backing over 2.5 goals in this clash. Having an elite striker could make all the difference in this match and we’re also keen on Robert Lewandowski to score with a header at a bumper price with Bet365.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score with a Header – Robert Lewandowski | 11/2 @ Bet365 (15.4%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Robert Lewandowski to score a header is a strong bet given his elite aerial record. He has 118 career headed goals, ranking among the best ever, and recently scored a headed equaliser vs Albania in qualifying. With 5 goals in 8 qualifiers and Poland’s reliance on crosses, his aerial threat makes a headed goal highly likely. |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 5/4 @ AK Bets (44.4%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Over 2.5 goals is a strong bet given the numbers: Sweden’s last six matches average 2.66 goals, while Poland’s average 2.83 goals with 67% BTTS. The last six head-to-head meetings average 3 goals per game supporting a high-scoring encounter |
Odds correct at the time of writing.
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Recent Form
Sweden’s recent form across their last six matches has been encouraging, highlighted by a 3-1 win against Ukraine, where Viktor Gyökeres scored a hat-trick. That result reflects a side finding attacking rhythm at a crucial stage.
Across their last six games, Sweden have recorded just one victory, scoring 5 goals (0.83 per game) while conceding 11 (1.83 per game). They’ve scored in three of those six matches, showing consistent attacking output, although clean sheets have been less frequent.
Recent form trends also show both teams scoring in around 50% of matches, with total goals averaging close to 2.7 per game, indicating relatively open contests. Earlier fixtures include mixed results, but Sweden have improved, creating more chances in the final third.
Overall, Sweden are combining improving attacking efficiency with enough defensive stability to compete consistently.
Poland’s recent form across their last six matches has been great, highlighted by a 2-1 comeback win against Albania, where they overturned a deficit with goals from Robert Lewandowski and Piotr Zieliński. Across this period, Poland have recorded five wins and one draw, scoring 12 goals (2 per game) and conceding 5 (0.83 per game), showing a balanced profile.
They’ve scored in all six matches, underlining attacking consistency, while two clean sheets point to improving defensive organisation. Recent results include a 3-2 win over Malta, 2-0 win against Lithuania, and a 1-1 draw with the Netherlands, demonstrating competitiveness against varying opposition.
Statistically, Poland average 2.0 total goals per match in recent fixtures, with BTTS landing in 66% of games, reflecting a mix of controlled and open contests.
Overall, Poland are in good form, combining consistent scoring with resilience, particularly evident in their comeback victory over Albania.
Sweden team news
Sweden’s team news ahead of the World Cup qualifying match with Poland shows key absentees through injury. Striker Alexander Isak has been left out of the squad as he hasn’t recovered in time, losing his race to fitness before this play‑off final.
However, Viktor Gyökeres leads the attack after his hat‑trick in the 3‑1 win over Ukraine, offering Sweden their main goal threat. Other experienced players remain available, with Sweden naming a competitive squad selected to secure a World Cup spot.
Overall, while missing Isak is a blow, Sweden still possess depth and attacking options, with Gyökeres and others expected to start, keeping continuity from their semi‑final success.
Poland team news
Poland reached the decisive match after beating Albania 2‑1, with Robert Lewandowski and Piotr Zielinski key to that win. Head coach Jan Urban has few injury or suspension concerns and could tweak his starting XI, a boost for selection. Sweden’s squad issues give Poland a slight edge, but the tie remains finely balanced.
Head-to-Head: Last 6 Meetings
These two nations have met numerous times over the years, but Sweden have the definite edge in recent encounters, winning five of the last six. Poland did emerge victorious the last time these two met though, adding a further layer of intrigue to the contest.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 29/03/22 | Poland 2-0 Sweden | World Cup Qualifier |
| 23/06/21 | Sweden 3-2 Poland | European Championship |
| 05/06/04 | Sweden 3-1 Poland | Friendly |
| 10/09/03 | Poland 0-2 Sweden | European Championship Qualifier |
| 11/06/03 | Sweden 3-0 Poland | European Championship Qualifier |
| 08/10/99 | Sweden 2-0 Poland | European Championship Qualifier |
Conclusion: Who will make it to World Cup 2026?
Both of these sides will be looking to return to the World Cup with a victory this week. We’re backing over 2.5 goals at 5/4 with AK Bets but, when looking for a little more value on prices, we like the look of Robert Lewandowski to score a header at a boosted price of 11/2 with Bet365.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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