Swansea City welcome Derby County to south Wales on Tuesday in a Championship clash that feels pivotal for both sides’ ambitions this season. With Swansea languishing in the lower reaches and Derby holding a mid-table spot, the stakes are clear: the Swans must convert possession into points, while Derby seek to build on superior finishing form. Find our match preview and best bets below.
Best Bets & Predictions
Based on Derby’s cutting edge in front of goal and Swansea’s possession-heavy but conversion-light style, here are our top betting recommendations for this match. We’re particularly confident in Both Teams to Score due to both sides’ defensive vulnerabilities and head-to-head trends.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carlton Morris to Score Anytime | 2/1 @ Betfair (33.3%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Derby’s top scorer (10 from 16); Swansea have kept just 3 clean sheets. |
| Draw | 12/5 @ SkyBet (29.4%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Three draws in last 10 H2Hs; both sides evenly matched defensively. |
Our approach: Start with Both Teams to Score, add Carlton Morris to Score for accumulator potential.
Odds correct at the time of writing.
Season Form & Standings
2025/26 season to date: Swansea have struggled to turn possession into points, sitting 20th with 17 points from 16 games. Derby, with sharper finishing and a stronger attack, hold 12th with 23 points. Both sides have conceded 22, but Derby score more and lose less often.
| Team | Pos | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby County | 12 | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 22 | 0 | 23 |
| Swansea City | 20 | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 22 | -7 | 17 |
Potential Match-Winners
- Carlton Morris (Derby): 10 goals in 16, 8 big chances scored, 62 penalty box touches, 12 key pass assists – a constant threat and Derby’s main source of goals.
- Jacob Zetterström (Derby): 54 saves this season, 3 clean sheets, and a key distributor with 384 forward passes and 139 accurate long balls.
- Ronald Pereira Martins (Swansea): Leads Swansea’s line, but the Swans need more from their attackers to complement their high shot volume (176 shots, only 15 goals).
- Jay Fulton (Swansea): Central to Swansea’s ball retention and 81.9% pass accuracy, but must help turn possession into clear chances.
Head-to-Head
The last 10 meetings between Swansea and Derby have been remarkably balanced, with 4 wins for Swansea, 3 for Derby, and 3 draws. Goals are usually shared – both teams have scored 11 times across those games.
Last 10 Meetings
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 05/04/25 | Swansea City 1-0 Derby County | Championship |
| 27/11/24 | Derby County 1-2 Swansea City | Championship |
| 09/04/22 | Swansea City 2-1 Derby County | Championship |
| 02/10/21 | Derby County 0-0 Swansea City | Championship |
| 01/05/21 | Swansea City 2-1 Derby County | Championship |
| 16/12/20 | Derby County 2-0 Swansea City | Championship |
| 08/02/20 | Swansea City 2-3 Derby County | Championship |
| 10/08/19 | Derby County 0-0 Swansea City | Championship |
| 01/05/19 | Swansea City 1-1 Derby County | Championship |
| 01/12/18 | Derby County 2-1 Swansea City | Championship |
Conclusion: Will Derby’s Firepower Prevail?
With Derby boasting the league’s more efficient attack and the division’s top scorer in Carlton Morris, the Rams look better placed to capitalise on Swansea’s defensive vulnerabilities. The Swans’ midfield control and home advantage give them hope, but unless they can convert dominance into goals, Derby have the edge. Our top selection remains Both Teams to Score at 15/8 (34.8%) with Bet365 – the stats and recent meetings all point to an open contest.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
