With both Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen locked on points and goals this Bundesliga season, Saturday’s clash at the MHPArena is set up as a pivotal battle in the European race.
Despite parity in the current campaign, Leverkusen’s dominant recent record over Stuttgart adds an extra layer of intrigue. Kick-off is at 14:30 on Saturday 9 May, promising a high-stakes encounter between two of Germany’s most enterprising sides.
Best Bets & Predictions
Based on the season’s goal output, head-to-head record, and attacking stats, here are our top betting recommendations for this match. We’re particularly confident in goals flowing again, given how often these sides have delivered high-scoring contests and the sharpness of their strikers.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 4.5 Total Goals | 2/1 @ Bet365 (33.3%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | These sides have both scored 66 goals this season and average nearly 2 goals per game each. Recent meetings have seen 7 goals (3-4) and 5 goals (1-4), showing a clear trend for shootouts when they meet. Both teams’ attacking stats are among the Bundesliga’s best. |
| Stuttgart to Win | 11/10 @ Bet365 (47.6%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | We’re tipping Stuttgart to edge it, with their higher shot accuracy (42.4% vs 32.5%) and more shots on target this season. Their confidence will be sky-high after thumping Leverkusen 4-1 away in January, showing they can break the H2H trend. |
Odds correct at the time of writing.
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Season Form & Standings
Both Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen are tied on 58 points after 32 games, with identical records of 17 wins, 7 draws and 8 losses. Stuttgart have a +20 goal difference (66 scored, 46 conceded), Leverkusen a slightly stronger +23 (66 scored, 43 conceded). These are two of the Bundesliga’s most consistent attacking outfits, with both sides boasting a win percentage of 53%.
| Team | Pos | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | 32 | 17 | 7 | 8 | 66 | 43 | +23 | 58 |
| Stuttgart | 5 | 32 | 17 | 7 | 8 | 66 | 46 | +20 | 58 |
Potential Match-Winners
- Deniz Undav (Stuttgart): The league’s joint-top scorer in this fixture with 18 goals and 34 big chance assists – he averages a shot on target every 2.7 attempts and remains Stuttgart’s most potent threat.
- Patrik Schick (Bayer Leverkusen): With 16 goals from just 68 shots, Schick is clinical (36.8% shot accuracy) and is always in the right place for Leverkusen.
- Jeremy Arévalo (Stuttgart): Regularly involved in attacking transitions, his pace and willingness to get shots away could be vital in a high-tempo contest.
- Alejandro Grimaldo (Bayer Leverkusen): Key to Leverkusen’s build-up, boasting a pass accuracy of 88.3%, often the source of attacks from deep.
Head-to-Head: Last 5 Meetings
This contest has been remarkably even over the past 5 meetings, with both sides picking up a single victory and the other three matches ending in stalemates.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 10/01/26 | Bayer Leverkusen 1-4 Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
| 16/03/25 | Stuttgart 3-4 Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga |
| 01/11/24 | Bayer Leverkusen 0-0 Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
| 27/04/24 | Bayer Leverkusen 2-2 Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
| 10/12/23 | Stuttgart 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga |
Will Stuttgart break the Leverkusen hold at home?
With both teams locked on points and goals, Stuttgart’s superior shot accuracy and their thumping away win over Leverkusen earlier in the campaign point to another thriller. If you’re looking for value, 2/1 (33.3%) for over 4.5 goals at Bet365 stands out, while those backing form might side with Stuttgart at 11/10 (47.6%). Can Stuttgart finally stamp their authority at home, or will Leverkusen’s H2H dominance tell again?
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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