Sturm Graz welcome Nottingham Forest in a match that pits a side under sustained defensive pressure against one of the competition’s most creative attacking units.
With both teams looking to climb the standings after mixed starts to their group campaigns, this clash at Merkur Arena promises plenty of drama. Kick-off is set for Thursday, and Forest arrive with the statistical edge, but Graz’s resilience and set-piece threat could make things interesting.
Best Bets & Predictions
Based on Forest’s strong attacking metrics, control of possession, and the defensive frailties shown by both sides, our top betting recommendations focus on Forest to win and goals at both ends. We’re especially confident in Nottingham Forest to claim victory, given their far superior xG and shot accuracy figures.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest to Win | 7/10 @ Bet365 (58.8%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Forest dominate xG (6.2), shots, and pass accuracy and won their last game in the group, beating Porto 2-0. It was a big result for the English side and gave them a boost after failing to win either of their opening games in the competition. Graz have no clean sheets in group and have lost two of their three games, so far. Nottingham Forest have the superior talent in the ranks and we think this should be enough to see them over the line in this encounter. |
| Both Teams to Score: Yes | 3/4 @ Bet365 (57.1%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Despite winning their last game, it was the first clean sheet that Nottingham Forest have kept in the competition. They conceded twice against Real Betis and three times against Midtjylland and their domestic form hasn’t been any better, conceding 19 goals in 10 Premier League games. Strum Graz haven’t been any better when it comes to conceding goals in the Europa League, also conceding five times in three games, although they have fared better in the Austrian Bundesliga, conceding 12 goals in 11 games. |
- Bet £10 get £30
- Excellent Football Betting Options
- Extensive Bet-Builder
- Multi-Award Winning Bookmaker
New customers can sign up using bonus code SQUAWKA365, bet £10 and get £30 in Free Bets. Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply. Registration Required. This code is for marketing and tracking purposes only. #Ad.
- Fantastic Promotions
- Fun Social Media Content
- New Bookmaker
#AD 18+ New customers only. Bet £10+ in a single real-money bet within 7 days of registration to receive £10 in Free Bets credited within 24 hours of qualifying bet settlement. Free Bets Boosts expire 7 days after credit. Stake not returned. Promotional Terms Apply. 18+. Gambleaware.org
- Enhanced Offers
- Request A Bet Feature
- Vast selection of sports markets
#AD 18+ New customers only. £5 minimum deposit. Place a £10 qualifying bet on any market. Odds of 1/1 or greater. 1 x £5 bet token. Free bet stakes not included in returns. Free bets are non-withdrawable. 30 day free bet expiry. Eligibility restrictions. Further T&Cs apply.
Odds correct at the time of writing.
Sturm Graz vs Nottingham Forest match odds
How both teams head into Sturm Graz vs Nottingham Forest
Sturm Graz haven’t set the world alight in recent weeks, falling to consecutive losses in the Austrian Bundesliga and being beaten by Celtic in the Europa League. Sturm Graz have scored in all three of those matches but conceded seven times, highlighting their defensive frailties. In Europe, it’s been two losses from three games for the Austrian side, whilst domestically they sit in fourth place having won seven of their first 11 games, scoring 20 goals along the way.
It’s been a tumultuous season for Nottingham Forest, so far. They are on their third manager of the season, with Nuno Espirito Santo replaced by Ange Postecoglu, who only lasted a matter of days before Sean Dyche was brought in. Forest sit in 19th place in the Premier League, having won only one of their opening 10 games and they’ll need to turn things around to drag themselves away from the relegation zone. In Europe, they’ve fared slightly better, securing a point against Real Betis before losing to Midtjylland in their next game. They beat Porto 2-0 last time out to restore some hope in qualification and another victory here would go a long way to ensuring they place knockout football this season.
Sturm Graz team news
Max Johnston and Belmin Beganovic will both miss out through injury, whilst Alexandar Borkovic wasn’t included in the Sturm Graz Europa League squad. Tochi Chukwuani starts his suspension after his red card against Celtic but Otar Kiteishvili should lead the line again after scoring eight goals already this season.
Nottingham Forest team news
Douglas Luiz was taken off early against Man Utd with a hamstring problem and he’s unlikely to feature in this tie, whilst Ola Aina, Chris Wood and Oleksandr Zinchenko will definitely miss out through injury. Taiwo Awoniyi, Omari Hutchinson, Jair Cunha and Angus Gunn were all omitted from the Europa League squad and won’t feature.
Season Form & Standings
Both clubs have identical win percentages but Forest edge ahead in points after three matches. Graz’s goal difference is marginally worse, and their ball retention and passing stats lag behind their English opponents.
| Team | Pos | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest | 17 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 |
| Sturm Graz | 27 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 |
Potential Match-Winners
- Callum Hudson-Odoi (Forest): Forward with a proven eye for goal; benefits from Forest’s 5.28 expected assists and 60% shot accuracy as a team.
- Morgan Gibbs-White (Forest): Brings pace and directness – Forest’s high xG (6.2) suggests he’ll get chances.
- Maurice Malone (Graz): Likely to be Graz’s main outlet; with Graz averaging only 40.5% possession, his ability to convert limited chances could be key.
- Emanuel Aiwu (Graz): Defensive anchor and tackles leader (Sturm Graz: 51 attempted tackles), must help stem Forest’s attacks.
Head-to-Head
Last Meetings
These sides have not met since 1984 in competitive action. Tonight’s fixture marks their first ever encounter.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 21/03/84 | Sturm Graz 1-1 Nottingham Forest | Europa League |
| 07/03/84 | Nottingham Forest 1-0 Sturm Graz | Europa League |
Conclusion
Will Nottingham Forest’s attacking superiority prove decisive, or can Sturm Graz’s defensive grit and set-piece potential spring a surprise? With Forest’s creative edge and Graz’s tendency to concede chances, we’re backing Forest at 7/10 (58.8%) with Bet365 as the top selection tonight. Expect goals at both ends, but Forest’s extra quality in possession and attack should tip the balance.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.