Real Madrid host Athletic Bilbao at the Santiago Bernabéu this Saturday, 23 May, with kick-off set for 8pm (UK time).
The backdrop is one of overwhelming historical dominance for the hosts, who have claimed 13 wins in the last 19 meetings between the sides, and enter this contest as La Liga‘s most prolific attack. With both teams seeking strong finishes to the 2025/26 campaign, all eyes are on whether Athletic can defy the odds and claim a statement result in Madrid.
Best Bets & Predictions
Based on season-long attacking output, head-to-head trends, and defensive reliability, here are our top betting recommendations for this match. We’re particularly confident in a home win for Real Madrid, given their record and statistical edge across all key areas.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid to Win | 40/85 @ Bet365 (68.0%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | We are backing Real Madrid because they’ve won 13 of the last 19 vs Athletic, including 3-0 away earlier this season. Their attack has produced 73 goals (59% possession average) while Athletic have let in 54 and kept just 6 clean sheets. |
| Kylian Mbappé to Score Anytime | 4/7 at Bet365 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Mbappé leads the league with 24 goals and is outperforming his expected goals by a huge margin. Athletic’s defence has struggled, so there could be value in the Frenchman finding the net again. |
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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Season Form & Standings
Real Madrid’s title challenge has been built on a league-best attack (73 goals, 52 assists) and a watertight defence with 14 clean sheets. Athletic, by contrast, have struggled for consistency, conceding 54 and winning just 35% of their matches.
| Team | Pos | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 2 | 37 | 26 | 5 | 6 | 73 | 33 | +40 | 83 |
| Athletic Bilbao | 12 | 37 | 13 | 6 | 18 | 41 | 54 | -13 | 45 |
Potential Match-Winners
- Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid): 24 goals and 5 assists in 31 matches, with a shot accuracy of 45.7%. Averaging 3.3 shots per game and outperforming xG by over 10 goals—he remains the most dangerous forward in Spain.
- Vinícius Júnior (Real Madrid): Key creative threat with a high involvement in build-up and final third actions. His dribbling and link-up play could open up spaces for Mbappé and Rodrygo.
- Iñaki Williams (Athletic Bilbao): Athletic’s top outlet for pace and direct running. Williams’ ability to get in behind could test Madrid’s defensive line on the counter.
- Gorka Guruzeta (Athletic Bilbao): Offers a physical presence and is often targeted for set pieces, though his goal return is modest compared to Madrid’s front line.
Head-to-Head: Last 6 Meetings
Real Madrid have won four of the previous six encounters between these sides, outscoring Athletic 10-3 in that span. Athletic’s only recent win came at home in December 2024, a rare highlight in an otherwise one-sided rivalry.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 03/12/25 | Athletic Bilbao 0-3 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| 20/04/25 | Real Madrid 1-0 Athletic Bilbao | La Liga |
| 04/12/24 | Athletic Bilbao 2-1 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| 31/03/24 | Real Madrid 2-0 Athletic Bilbao | La Liga |
| 12/08/23 | Athletic Bilbao 0-2 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| 04/06/23 | Real Madrid 1-1 Athletic Bilbao | La Liga |
Conclusion: Can Athletic Upset the Odds in Madrid?
With Real Madrid boasting superior firepower, defensive strength, and a commanding head-to-head record, the numbers point firmly to a home victory. However, Athletic Bilbao will be desperate to improve on a disappointing defensive season and have shown they can occasionally spring a surprise. Will the visitors find a way to frustrate the Bernabéu crowd, or will Madrid’s attacking stars—especially Mbappé—seal another routine win? For those looking to back the hosts, the 40/85 (68.0%) price at Bet365 stands out as the best value currently on offer.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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