Osasuna return to El Sadar for a crucial clash with Sevilla, in a meeting that could prove pivotal at both ends of the La Liga table.
With both sides sitting in the lower half but only five points apart, the match offers a fascinating contrast: Osasuna’s defensive edge against Sevilla’s possession-heavy style. Kick-off is set for Sunday evening, and with both teams desperate for points, this encounter promises drama and no shortage of talking points.
Best Bets & Predictions
Based on Osasuna’s xG advantage, Sevilla’s defensive vulnerabilities, and the historical trend towards tightly contested matches, here are our top betting recommendations. We’re particularly confident in Osasuna to win due to their more robust defensive numbers and Sevilla’s struggles away from home this season.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna to Win | 11/10 @ Betfred (47.6%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | We are backing Osasuna to win because they have conceded 14 fewer goals than Sevilla this season and boast a higher expected goals tally (42.6 vs 30.7). Sevilla have lost half their away matches, while Osasuna’s defensive organisation at home has delivered vital points. |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 8/11 @ Bet365 (57.9%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | There could be value here due to the recent trend: four of the last six meetings between these sides finished with under 2.5 goals, and both teams have struggled for ruthless finishing with shot accuracy percentages under 37%. |
Odds correct at the time of writing.
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Season Form & Standings
Osasuna currently sit mid-table with a comfortable cushion, while Sevilla hover just above the relegation zone. Both sides have struggled for consistency but Osasuna’s superior defensive record and home advantage could prove decisive.
| Team | Pos | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna | 10 | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 37 | 39 | -2 | 39 |
| Sevilla | 17 | 32 | 9 | 7 | 16 | 39 | 53 | -14 | 34 |
Potential Match-Winners
- Ante Budimir (Osasuna): 16 goals this season, with an xG of 12.38, he’s Osasuna’s focal point and a constant aerial and poaching threat.
- Moi Gómez (Osasuna): Reliable support for Budimir, with strong movement and creative spark in the final third.
- Isaac Romero (Sevilla): Leads Sevilla’s line and remains their most consistent attacking outlet, often tasked with breaking down opposition defences.
- Joan Jordán (Sevilla): Provides stability and transitions from midfield; his passing accuracy and vision are key when Sevilla look to control possession.
Head-to-Head: Last six meetings
This fixture has been pretty even with three draws in their last six and two victories for Osasuna. Most recent encounters have been tightly contested, with just one match featuring more than two goals.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 08/11/25 | Sevilla 1-0 Osasuna | Primera División |
| 24/04/25 | Osasuna 1-0 Sevilla | Primera División |
| 02/12/24 | Sevilla 1-1 Osasuna | Primera División |
| 28/01/24 | Sevilla 1-1 Osasuna | Primera División |
| 23/09/23 | Osasuna 0-0 Sevilla | Primera División |
| 26/02/23 | Sevilla 2-3 Osasuna | Primera División |
Will Osasuna’s home solidity prove too much for struggling Sevilla?
Osasuna’s numbers suggest they are well-equipped to take advantage of a vulnerable Sevilla side, especially with Budimir in form and a home crowd behind them. With Sevilla conceding far too easily and Osasuna boasting a higher xG and more big chances, the hosts should fancy their chances of all three points. Backing Osasuna at 11/10 @ Betfred (47.6%) looks the pick of the prices for those seeking value in this weekend’s action.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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