Newcastle United welcome Burnley to St James’ Park this weekend, with the hosts looking to reassert their home dominance after a patchy run of form.
This Saturday afternoon encounter (kick-off 3:00 PM) pits a Newcastle side with a historically strong record in this fixture against a Burnley team desperate to climb out of the relegation zone. With Newcastle having won the majority of recent meetings and Burnley struggling defensively, all eyes will be on whether the Magpies can maintain their edge or if Burnley can spring a surprise.
Best Bets & Predictions
Based on Newcastle’s superior head-to-head record and Burnley’s leaky defence, our top betting recommendations focus on a home win and goals. We’re particularly confident in Newcastle to Win, given their recent dominance over Burnley and stronger all-round numbers this campaign.
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Gordon to score anytime | 8/5 @ Unibet (38.5%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Anthony Gordon is statistically poised to score against a porous Burnley defense. His Expected Goals per 90 minutes (xG/90) of 0.71 highlights his elite chance creation. Crucially, Burnley’s away form is a major vulnerability, as they concede an average of 3.00 goals per game on the road. Playing at home, Gordon will exploit the space created by Newcastle’s dominant attack against a struggling backline. His high shot volume and the opponent’s defensive frailty make an anytime goal a statistical near-certainty |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 4/7 @ Bet365 (63.6%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | The statistical case for Over 2.5 Goals is compelling, driven by Burnley’s catastrophic away defense. Burnley concedes an average of 3.00 goals per game on the road. Newcastle’s potent attack, averaging 1.70 goals scored per match, is perfectly positioned to exploit this vulnerability. With a 63% probability for the match to exceed 2.5 goals, the combination of Newcastle’s scoring power and Burnley’s defensive frailty ensures a high-scoring fixture at St James’ Park. |
Odds correct at the time of writing.
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Newcastle vs Burnley match odds
How both teams head into Newcastle vs Burnley
Newcastle will hope that their poor run of form is behind them, with the Magpies going three games unbeaten and moving into 12th position. Those wins came against Man City and Everton before a 2-2 draw with Tottenham in midweek lengthened the good run for Newcastle. Eddie Howe’s side have rediscovered their scoring touch, finding the net eight times in their past three games although they haven’t been able to keep a clean sheet in eight games, something that Howe will be keen to address as he launches an assault on the top half.
Burnley have really struggled on their return to the Premier League, losing 10 of their first 14 games and they’ve now lost five in a row to leave them in 19th position. Their form away from home isn’t any better, with the Clarets losing six of their seven games away from Turf Moor. Problems have been present for Burnley at both ends of the pitch, with the side averaging just over a goal a game but conceding two goals a game on average, a figure that rises to three goals a game when they’ve played on the road.
Newcastle team news
Kieran Trippier, Nick Pope and Yoane Wissa will all miss out through injury whilst there isn’t any definitive news on Sven Botman or William Osula but neither look likely to feature. The good news for Newcastle is that Sandro Tonali made a substitute appearance in midweek and looks set to make his full return against Burnley.
Burnley team news
Burnley have three players out for the trip to Newcastle, with Zeki Amdouni, Connor Roberts and Jordan Beyer all out until the new year.
Season Form & Standings
Newcastle sit mid-table, while Burnley are firmly in the relegation zone. Newcastle’s +1 goal difference and five clean sheets signal a balanced team, whereas Burnley’s -13 goal difference and just two clean sheets highlight their defensive struggles.
| Team | Pos | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle United | 12 | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 18 | +1 | 19 |
| Burnley | 19 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 15 | 28 | -13 | 10 |
Head-to-Head: Last 5 Meetings
Newcastle have dominated recent encounters, winning eight of the last 13 meetings against Burnley (Burnley have only managed two wins). The Magpies have done the double in recent seasons, including a convincing 4-1 win away last campaign.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 04/05/24 | Burnley 1-4 Newcastle United | Premier League |
| 30/09/23 | Newcastle United 2-0 Burnley | Premier League |
| 22/05/22 | Burnley 1-2 Newcastle United | Premier League |
| 04/12/21 | Newcastle United 1-0 Burnley | Premier League |
| 25/08/21 | Newcastle United 0-0 Burnley (3-4 pens) | EFL Cup |
Conclusion: Can Newcastle Maintain Their Edge?
Newcastle’s superior shot volume, pass accuracy, and head-to-head record all point their way, especially with Burnley shipping two goals per game on average. However, with their own inconsistency and Burnley’s fighting spirit, nothing is guaranteed. Backing Anthony Gordon to score at 8/5 with Unibet (38.5%) is the standout pick, but Over 2.5 Goals at 4/7 with bet365 (63.6%) is also well supported by the stats. Will Newcastle’s balance be enough, or could Burnley’s high tackle count signal an upset in the making?
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
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