Marseille face Liverpool in a Champions League clash at Stade Vélodrome this Wednesday, 21 January 2026, with both sides eager to prove a point after mixed group stage campaigns. Find our match preview and predictions below.
Best Bets & Predictions
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool to Win | 5/6 @ Bet365 (54.5%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Liverpool lead in expected goals (xG 14.32 vs 5.89), shot and pass accuracy, and have created far more big chances. Their away form and quality suggest they have the edge, and the odds look generous compared to their underlying stats.For punters, focusing on a low-margin, goal-based market or a draw outcome could offer value while reflecting the current form and home advantage dynamics. |
| Virgil van Dijk to Score | 10/1 @ BetMGM (9.1%) | ⭐⭐⭐ | Liverpool are likely to dominate in the air against Marseille, who struggle with height and physical presence. Only Metz and PSG have won fewer aerial duels in Ligue 1 this season, highlighting a potential vulnerability.The visitors are mid-table in this category in the Premier League, but with Virgil van Dijk and Ibrahima Konaté leading the line, set-piece situations could prove very dangerous. Van Dijk hasn’t scored in the league yet, which is unusual, but he has already netted twice in the Champions League, finding the back of the net against Atletico Madrid and Eintracht Frankfurt. |
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How both teams go into Marseille vs Liverpool
Marseille have been impressive this season, using their attacking firepower to good effect. On matchday six, a Mason Greenwood double helped them secure a 3-2 win over Union Saint-Gilloise, while earlier victories included wins over Newcastle United and PSV Eindhoven. However, they have fallen to Sporting Lisbon, Atalanta BC, and Real Madrid, leaving them 12th in the group and three points shy of automatic qualification for the last 16.
In Ligue 1, the highest scorers have continued to shine, thrashing Angers 5-2 on Saturday with four goals scored before the 40th minute, keeping them eight points behind leaders Lens. Marseille now aim for three straight Champions League wins for the first time since 2010-11 as they face Liverpool again, a matchup last seen in the 2008-09 group stage when the Reds won both encounters under Rafael Benitez.
Arne Slot’s side came into their matchday six clash with Inter Milan as underdogs, but the reigning Premier League champions managed a 1-0 victory thanks to a Dominik Szoboszlai penalty, putting themselves on the verge of the top eight. Liverpool sit level on points and goal difference with Atletico Madrid but are edged out of automatic qualification by fewer goals scored, while Real Madrid and Inter also have 12 points each.
Despite this, Liverpool’s unbeaten run received little celebration on Saturday as struggling Burnley fought back to earn a 1-1 draw at Anfield. The result saw the Reds become the first reigning Premier League champions to fail to win any of their three home games against newly-promoted sides in a single season, raising fresh questions about Slot’s long-term future at the club.
Marseille team news
Marseille will soon have an AFCON returnee after Nayef Aguerd’s Morocco lost in a dramatic final, but the former West Ham defender won’t be available for this match. Derek Cornelius is out with a muscle injury and Ruben Blanco with a knee problem, while Bilal Nadir was withdrawn late against Angers but is not seriously injured. Arthur Vermeeren, Angel Gomes and Matt O’Riley could cover in midfield if needed, while Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Igor Paixao will both be looking to regain their spots in attack.
Liverpool team news
Liverpool travel to Marseille just four days after Mohamed Salah finished his Africa Cup of Nations campaign, though it remains unclear if the 33-year-old will feature on Wednesday. Arne Slot will be without Conor Bradley, Giovanni Leoni and Alexander Isak through injury, but the rest of the squad is fit and ready for matchday seven. On Saturday, Liverpool created plenty of chances but struggled to convert, so a similar lineup is expected in France, with Alexis Mac Allister and Andy Robertson potentially coming in to provide fresh legs.
Season Form & Standings
2025/26 season to date: Liverpool finished the group stage in stronger form, with four wins from six, while Marseille won three and lost three. Liverpool’s attack has been more productive, and they hold a higher group ranking, suggesting a momentum edge coming into this tie.
| Team | Pos | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | 9 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 12 |
| Olympique Marseille | 16 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 9 |
Conclusion
Liverpool’s attacking metrics and group stage form give them a statistical edge heading into this tie, but Marseille’s balanced goal threat and home support could make this a far closer contest than the odds suggest. Will Liverpool’s quality in chance creation finally pay off, or can Marseille’s key men step up at home? Our top tip is Liverpool to win at 5/6 with Bet365 (54.5%), but goals at both ends look likely.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
