Manchester City welcome Burnley to the Etihad Stadium in a fixture that has become synonymous with one-sided dominance. The 3:00 PM kick-off sees Pep Guardiola’s side aiming to reassert their authority after a patchy start to their campaign, while Burnley arrive desperate to defy history and snatch a result against a team they have performed poorly against. With City winning 15 of their last 16 encounters and a gulf in both form and squad strength, the narrative is set for another stern test of Burnley’s resolve.
Our predictions for Manchester City vs Burnley
| Our Prediction | Odds & Bookmaker | Confidence | Why We’re Backing It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City to Win to Nil | 4/5 with Casumo (55.6%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ | City have won 15 of the last 16 vs Burnley. Eight of the previous nine have seen City win without the Clarets getting on the scoresheet. Over the last nine matches, there has been an aggregate score of 31-1 in City’s favour. |
| Tijani Reijnders Anytime Assist | 7/2 with Casumo (22.2%) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Tijani Reijnders set up Erling Haaland for City’s opener at The Emirates last weekend. The Dutchman has two assists in the league, and in a game where City could rack up the goals, he looks potentially overpriced in the anytime assist market. |
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How both teams go into Manchester City vs Burnley
After letting two points slip in last weekend’s dramatic Premier League clash with Arsenal, Man City bounced back in style on Wednesday, cruising to a 2-0 victory over third-tier Huddersfield Town and booking their spot in the EFL Cup fourth round for the 12th time in 13 years.
Struggling with just seven points from their opening five league games—their lowest haul at this stage since 2006-07—City are eager to ignite a strong run in the Premier League. Saturday’s meeting with Burnley looks ripe for a statement win, especially given their dominance over newly promoted sides: City have triumphed in 22 of their last 24 Premier League encounters against promoted teams, with the only blip a 2-1 loss to Leeds in April 2021.
Burnley are struggling for form, going four games without a win in all competitions, including three straight Premier League matches. They most recently shared the spoils in a 1-1 home draw with Nottingham Forest and currently sit 16th, just one point above the relegation zone.
Saturday’s trip to the Etihad is a daunting challenge. The Clarets haven’t won a league match at Man City in 19 attempts—dating back to a 5-2 victory in March 1963—and have dropped each of their last seven Premier League visits to City, conceding 25 goals along the way.
Manchester City team news
Erling Haaland is a slight doubt after a minor back issue forced him off against Arsenal, causing him to miss City’s midweek 2-0 win over Huddersfield. Rayan Ait-Nouri, Mathis Cherki, Mateo Kovacic and Omar Marmoush are all out with injuries.
Burnley team news
Burnley will be without Connor Roberts (knee), Jordan Beyer (thigh), and Zeki Amdouni (knee), while Jacob Bruun Larsen is doubtful and will be assessed ahead of kickoff.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.
Season Form & Standings
2025/26 season to date: Both sides have had a mixed start, but City remain far superior on most metrics. City are 9th with 7 points from 5 games (W2 D1 L2), while Burnley sit 16th with just 4 points (W1 D1 L3). City’s goal difference is a healthy +4, compared to Burnley’s -3. For both sides, recent form is a concern, but City’s ceiling is much higher.
| Team | Pos | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 7 |
| Burnley | 16 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 4 |
Potential Match-Winners
- Erling Haaland (Man City): 6 goals in 5 games, scoring two-thirds of City’s total. 5 big chances missed, but 5 big chances converted – expect him in the thick of it again if he starts.
- Martin Dúbravka (Burnley): 19 saves already this season, the busiest keeper in the league. If Burnley are to have any chance, he will need another inspired display.
- Bernardo Silva (Man City): As a creative heartbeat, his passing and spatial awareness open up compact defences – City average 85.56% pass accuracy, and Silva is central to that.
Head-to-head
City’s hold over Burnley is extraordinary: 15 wins and 1 draw in their last 16 meetings, with a goal tally of 53-5 in City’s favour. Burnley’s last win in this fixture is so far back it barely registers in the modern era.
Last 10 Meetings
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 31/01/24 | Man City 3-1 Burnley | Premier League |
| 11/08/23 | Burnley 0-3 Man City | Premier League |
| 18/03/23 | Man City 6-0 Burnley | FA Cup |
| 02/04/22 | Burnley 0-2 Man City | Premier League |
| 16/10/21 | Man City 2-0 Burnley | Premier League |
| 03/02/21 | Burnley 0-2 Man City | Premier League |
| 28/11/20 | Man City 5-0 Burnley | Premier League |
| 22/06/20 | Man City 5-0 Burnley | Premier League |
| 03/12/19 | Burnley 1-4 Man City | Premier League |
| 28/04/19 | Burnley 0-1 Man City | Premier League |
Who holds the edge?
Will Manchester City’s iron grip over Burnley continue, or can the visitors finally find a way to disrupt the script? With City’s attacking power, defensive solidity, and the extraordinary finishing of Haaland, all signs point to another comfortable home win. Those looking for value should consider City to win to nil or to win on the match handicap.
Odds correct at the time of writing. Please gamble responsibly.